tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post1407369495639395645..comments2024-02-21T05:16:22.788-05:00Comments on Two Weeks Notice: A Latin American Politics Blog: Fernando Ignacio Leiva's Latin American NeostructuralismGreg Weekshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-42936960381369637282008-12-27T13:32:00.000-05:002008-12-27T13:32:00.000-05:00If we are going to get all technical about thisOh,...<I>If we are going to get all technical about this</I><BR/><BR/>Oh, I see. So if you claim that Venezuela does not have "better social equality" than Chile and I point out to you that the data available indicates otherwise, I'm getting "technical."<BR/><BR/>Okay, big fella.<BR/><BR/><I>It was YOU who claimed that having an unequal society was why we should not look to Chile as a model for the region</I><BR/> <BR/>Indeed, part of the reason I don't think Chile should be considered a "model" is its level of inequality. That's completely distinct from saying that the Gini coefficient is the <I>only</I> measure relevant to an assessment of the general quality of life of a nation, but I'm not surprised that you fail to understand the distinction. <BR/><BR/>More broadly, though, I think this whole notion that we could somehow locate <I>the</I> model for Latin America in the experience of one particular country is completely misguided and Quixotic.Justin Delacourhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01343303383195336825noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-67818785936543035712008-12-27T11:27:00.000-05:002008-12-27T11:27:00.000-05:00Justin,If we are going to get all technical about ...Justin,<BR/><BR/>If we are going to get all technical about this then I should point out that this was not just about Venezuela, it also included Bolivia. And the data you link to shows Bolivia is a more unequal society than Chile. So at best, you are only half right. Will you start by accepting that? It seems it's not just me who did not do their homework.<BR/><BR/>Also, the Gini coefficients are not calculated by CEPAL based on their own fieldwork. They use the household surveys from national authorities. So maybe we need to address just how reliable Venezuela's numbers are. As I recall you are the one who did not know that Argentina lies about its inflation numbers (apologies in advance if mistook you for someone else). For example, do you know that Venezuelan authorities no longer publish private investment numbers? Do you know why?<BR/><BR/>As for the strawman argument, after I asked why not follow Chile as a model YOUR response was "a country with some of the highest levels of social inequality in Latin America is [not] any kind of "model" for the region either. " It was YOU who claimed that having an unequal society was why we should not look to Chile as a model for the region, not me. Of course, even that is false since your own numbers show there are several nations with higher coefficients in the region. And we haven't even adressed the issue of measurement error and whether the stated differences are significant. <BR/><BR/><BR/>The bottom line remains the same. Venezeula and Bolivia do not have sustainable economic development models. They only work if the price of oil remains high forever. Chile, while it still has plenty of problems, should be a model for the rest of Latin America. It's an example of what happens when you have (relatively) strong institutions and sensible macro and fiscal policies. <BR/> <BR/>Anyone who, like apparently the author of the book referenced here, thinks Bolivia or Venezuela are better economic and social development 'models' than Chile doesn't know what they are talking about.Gabrielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07170544582490033719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-88357951211019489152008-12-26T23:26:00.000-05:002008-12-26T23:26:00.000-05:00I will point out that measurement issues aside, an...<I>I will point out that measurement issues aside, anyone who thinks the distribution of income by itself is a good way to measure social progress has a strange and warped sense of reality.</I><BR/><BR/>Actually, Gabriel, nobody here has stated that the Gini coefficient data is the <I>only</I> measure relevant to an assessment of the general quality of life of a nation. That's just a strawman argument that you use to divert attention from the fact that, while you boldly asserted that Venezuela does not have "better social equality than Chile," the CEPAL data indicates otherwise.<BR/><BR/>Why don't you just admit that you didn't do your homework on the question of social inequality, Gabriel? <BR/><BR/>I give you data. You give me anecdotes about some barrios in Caracas that no economist anywhere would regard as a substitute for hard data. <BR/><BR/>What are you gonna do when the World Bank data comes out and corroborates the CEPAL data? Tell us about some barrio in Merida too?Justin Delacourhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01343303383195336825noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-69096369363758828342008-12-26T23:05:00.000-05:002008-12-26T23:05:00.000-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.Justin Delacourhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01343303383195336825noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-71934991505369152792008-12-26T19:12:00.000-05:002008-12-26T19:12:00.000-05:00I will point out that measurement issues aside, an...I will point out that measurement issues aside, anyone who thinks the distribution of income by itself is a good way to measure social progress has a strange and warped sense of reality.Gabrielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07170544582490033719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-56950664320564446262008-12-26T19:00:00.000-05:002008-12-26T19:00:00.000-05:00Unlike you, I've worked doing field work and would...Unlike you, I've worked doing field work and wouldn't trust those numbers too much.<BR/><BR/>Let me ask you a basic question, have you ever been to El Alto? Ever seen the shantytowns as you drive from La Guaira to Caracas?<BR/><BR/>I'm guessing not.<BR/><BR/>Like I wrote, anyone who thinks Bolivia or Venezuela provide a better future for their citizens than Chile doesn't know anything about Latin America.Gabrielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07170544582490033719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-17742697880151930402008-12-26T18:01:00.000-05:002008-12-26T18:01:00.000-05:00But anyone who thinks that Venezuela or Boilivia h...<I>But anyone who thinks that Venezuela or Boilivia have better social equality than Chile... doesn't know anything about Latin America or Economics.</I><BR/><BR/>Uh, CEPAL <A HREF="http://websie.eclac.cl/sisgen/ConsultaIntegrada.asp?idAplicacion=1&idTema=7&idIndicador=250&idioma=i" REL="nofollow">shows</A> that Venezuela has a lower Gini coefficient than Chile. In 2006, which is the last year for which CEPAL has Gini coefficient data for both countries, Chile had a Gini coefficient of 0.522 and Venezuela had a Gini coeffient of 0.441. In other words, by the most common measure of economic inequality, the level of economic inequality in Venezuela is significantly lower than that of Chile. <BR/><BR/>The point is not to assert that one or the other country is any kind of "model" for the region but rather that you should do your homework before spouting nonsense.Justin Delacourhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01343303383195336825noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-56956362365740777252008-12-25T21:43:00.000-05:002008-12-25T21:43:00.000-05:00I won't call you crazy.But anyone who thinks that ...I won't call you crazy.<BR/><BR/>But anyone who thinks that Venezuela or Boilivia have better social equality than Chile, or that either country represents a better long term opportunity for its people, doesn't know anything about Latin America or Economics. <BR/><BR/>The Venezuelan model is tradiotional Latin economic policy: spend like there's no tomorrow and pray the good times never end.Gabrielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07170544582490033719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-44269085953545232712008-12-24T00:49:00.000-05:002008-12-24T00:49:00.000-05:00If you are looking for a model to follow in Latam,...<I>If you are looking for a model to follow in Latam, how about Chile?</I><BR/><BR/>Some people don't think that a country with some of the highest levels of social inequality in Latin America is any kind of "model" for the region either. <BR/><BR/>Call us crazy.<BR/><BR/>That said, Chile does have some enviably low levels of violent crime.Justin Delacourhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01343303383195336825noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-60635410212889733952008-12-23T20:16:00.000-05:002008-12-23T20:16:00.000-05:00There's probably plenty to critique about any mode...There's probably plenty to critique about any model but how can anyone sane think that Venezuela or Bolivia are better economic models than Chile?<BR/><BR/>I'm sorry, I hate to prejudge a book I haven't read but if that's really the purpose of the book I can't imagine it being too useful. But I'll take you look, you've piqued my curiosity.Gabrielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07170544582490033719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-43024668797563798362008-12-23T16:27:00.000-05:002008-12-23T16:27:00.000-05:00The book is a critique of the Chilean model (which...The book is a critique of the Chilean model (which is why it's used as a case study) and advocates looking at the Venezuelan and Bolivian models, hence my question about what those models really mean.<BR/><BR/>I just happened to see that he has a similarly titled article in the latest issue of Latin American Politics and Society. I have not had a chance to look, but it may provide a condensed version.Greg Weekshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-39650167543957139112008-12-23T16:10:00.000-05:002008-12-23T16:10:00.000-05:00Sounds like an interesting book. But Venezuela as ...Sounds like an interesting book. But Venezuela as a model of development? It's not even a model of what oil exporters should do? If you are looking for a model to follow in Latam, how about Chile?<BR/><BR/>Rule number one for any country tha has problems borrowing and a lot of macro volatility (which means most of Latin America): Save during the good times!Gabrielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07170544582490033719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-69179601504288595942008-12-23T08:35:00.000-05:002008-12-23T08:35:00.000-05:00I want to see how the Venezuelan case in particula...<I>I want to see how the Venezuelan case in particular offers a concrete model that non-petroleum exporting countries can follow.</I><BR/><BR/>But how could it be a "model" for non-petroleum exporting countries if it's a petroleum exporting country? <BR/><BR/>To be sure, any Latin American country could find some policies in Venezuela that are worth emulating (and some that aren't worth emulating), but the notion that the standard against which we should hold Venezuela is whether it constitutes a general "model" for the rest of Latin America is completely bizarre.<BR/><BR/>Countries must adapt their policies to their own unique economic conditions. In <A HREF="http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/08/world/americas/08chile.html?_r=1" REL="nofollow">the words of Chilean President Michelle Bachelet</A>, "countries and their realities are different, so you are going to find leaders who may have the same objectives but who have completely different solutions."<BR/><BR/>The notion of a one-size-fits-all "model" is an outmoded form of thinking characteristic of early modernization theory.Justin Delacourhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01343303383195336825noreply@blogger.com