tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post9116651305404999957..comments2024-02-21T05:16:22.788-05:00Comments on Two Weeks Notice: A Latin American Politics Blog: Support for Zelaya's ouster in HondurasGreg Weekshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-75228301030224873852009-07-15T19:30:01.779-04:002009-07-15T19:30:01.779-04:00The AP has also updated their report on the poll:
...The AP has also updated their report on the poll:<br /><a href="http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jQ47HikfV5jORm67rF1LxBSr0WswD99F4ECO0" rel="nofollow">Gallup Poll: Ousted leader with 46 pct approval</a> confirming Boz's results and including some additional numbers form CID-Gallup.Abby Kelleyitehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06510968255983729033noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-26375454546543295532009-07-15T10:50:10.892-04:002009-07-15T10:50:10.892-04:00The Christian Science Monitor has published a resp...The Christian Science Monitor has published a response to the criticism of their initial report:<br /><br />(as of this writing the original article doesn't link to this)<br /><br />Honduras: Deciphering poll numbers <br />http://features.csmonitor.com/globalnews/2009/07/14/honduras-deciphering-poll-numbers/<br /><br />The Wall Street Journal has published a "Corrections & Amplifications" note at the bottom of the original article:<br />http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124718543706320515.htmlRobert Naimanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18271924392474897505noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-3910313666149990812009-07-14T00:10:19.611-04:002009-07-14T00:10:19.611-04:00Just wanted to add my thanks to Boz for doing the ...Just wanted to add my thanks to Boz for doing the work to sort this out.Abby Kelleyitehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06510968255983729033noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-10288241312627349362009-07-13T16:50:14.264-04:002009-07-13T16:50:14.264-04:00The relevant numbers are from the second question,...The relevant numbers are from the second question, Boz.Justin Delacourhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01343303383195336825noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-36221360275560133722009-07-13T06:07:47.271-04:002009-07-13T06:07:47.271-04:00OK, I've updated on my blog. Here are the two ...OK, I've updated on my blog. Here are the two questions and numbers (although I still can't see the graphics). I would encourage media outlets to publish both numbers along with their questions:<br /><br /><i>¿Considera usted que las acciones que tomó Mel Zelaya con respecto a la cuarta urna justificaban su destitución del puesto de Presidente de la República?</i><br />Yes 41%, No 28%, Don't know/No answer: 31%.<br /><br /><i>¿Cuánto está usted de acuerdo con la acción que se tomó el pasado domingo que removió el Presidente Zelaya del país?</i><br />Support 41%, Oppose 46%, Don't know/No Answer 13%.bozhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13233148632004720002noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-42506611017547932972009-07-11T20:00:27.857-04:002009-07-11T20:00:27.857-04:00I've got the full numbers from CID and will po...I've got the full numbers from CID and will post tomorrow or Monday. At first glance, it looks like the question was asked in two different ways (media should publish both results). I won't know for sure until I can open the document. <br />-boz (from my iPhone)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-12407048696502702522009-07-11T14:03:12.187-04:002009-07-11T14:03:12.187-04:00Thanks, Boz. Much appreciated.
If La Prensa do...Thanks, Boz. Much appreciated. <br /><br />If La Prensa doctored the figures and Reuters and the Washington Post ran with it, they need to issue a correction.Justin Delacourhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01343303383195336825noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-36783194379156102792009-07-11T08:19:20.582-04:002009-07-11T08:19:20.582-04:00The 41-46 number comes from a brief clip of Carlos...The 41-46 number comes from a brief clip of Carlos Denton, president of CID-Gallup, talking on the VOA website. I updated over on my blog.<br /><br />Nobody has published the full data yet and this can be resolved rather quickly once the data is made available. Either the Honduran media reported it incorrectly, Denton misspoke (unlikely), or they were giving the data from two different questions.bozhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13233148632004720002noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-9508724856875991282009-07-11T00:02:43.140-04:002009-07-11T00:02:43.140-04:00I think both my and Nell's link to the Chamber...I think both my and Nell's link to the Chamber of Commerce story appear broken (a conspiracy!). Here is my intended <a href="http://narcosphere.narconews.com/thefield/law-enforcement-not-diplomacy-can-end-honduras-coup" rel="nofollow">link</a> - to Al Giordano.leftsidehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00676827005815770066noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-55487553002712014312009-07-10T22:52:44.657-04:002009-07-10T22:52:44.657-04:00Opinion here was shaped by a barrage of pro-coup o...<i>Opinion here was shaped by a barrage of pro-coup opinion pieces placed by the Cormac Group of Miami with money collected just before the coup for that purpose by the Tegucigalpa Chamber of Commerce.</i><br /><br />Cocksuckers.Justin Delacourhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01343303383195336825noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-4517779801261078772009-07-10T22:50:06.923-04:002009-07-10T22:50:06.923-04:00Ah, yes. Now we see where Reuters gets its data f...Ah, yes. Now we see where Reuters gets its data from. <br /><br /><i>A CID-Gallup survey published in La Prensa newspaper on Thursday showed 41 percent of respondents considered his ouster justified versus 28 percent who were against it. The other 31 percent said they did not know.</i><br /><br />La Prensa is also the newspaper that just airbrushed the blood out of the photo of the fatally wounded protester. That doesn't necessarily mean that their presentation of the polling data is false, but their reports obviously need to be taken with a grain of salt.<br /><br />I'm gonna get to the bottom of this one.Justin Delacourhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01343303383195336825noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-32380520725391954672009-07-10T22:49:37.750-04:002009-07-10T22:49:37.750-04:00Wondering how the golpista talking points on the c...Wondering how the <i>golpista</i> talking points on the coup (including, prominently, "it's not a coup") got so entrenched so fast? And how conservatives in U.S. blog comment sections suddenly became such experts on the Honduran constitution and laws?<br /><br />Opinion here was shaped by a barrage of pro-coup opinion pieces <a href="" rel="nofollow">placed</a> by the Cormac Group of Miami with money collected just before the coup for that purpose by the Tegucigalpa Chamber of Commerce.Nellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01969732734453586544noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-16596399362300545132009-07-10T22:25:41.044-04:002009-07-10T22:25:41.044-04:00Boz -
BTW, you have to open up your comments sect...Boz -<br /><br />BTW, you have to open up your comments section. I spend too much time toggling between here and your place..Doug Zylstrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03023935711242140793noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-89980230953547692832009-07-10T22:22:29.519-04:002009-07-10T22:22:29.519-04:00Justin -
Abby had a great observation
on the Da...Justin - <br /><br />Abby had a great observation <br />on the Daily Kos diary I have up, namely, that Reuters is quoting Honduran newspapers, whereas Ap is quoting Gallup seemingly directly.<br /><br />http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/7/10/752199/-Gallup-Polls-HondurasPlurality-disagree-with-coup#c4Doug Zylstrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03023935711242140793noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-86605658398636445802009-07-10T21:50:33.124-04:002009-07-10T21:50:33.124-04:00My guess is that AP made an error
Well, I'd l...<i>My guess is that AP made an error</i><br /><br />Well, I'd like to see some corroboration on that one, Boz, because AP's figures appear more plausible in at least one respect. The notion that so many Hondurans (31 percent) are not going to have an opinion of such a mass-mobilizing event as a coup strikes me as somewhat far-fetched. <br /><br />And as for the Honduran press' presentation of the figures, it's not as if the Honduran press is operating in a particularly credible manner at the moment. One would hope that you and Reuters don't rely too heavily on the Honduran press for your info.Justin Delacourhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01343303383195336825noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-83742022054427516902009-07-10T20:58:43.914-04:002009-07-10T20:58:43.914-04:00Does it really matter if the number is 46 or 28% o...Does it really matter if the number is 46 or 28% opposed? I mean it is a big discrepancy that needs to get cleared, but does it matter in any way? We are talking about a total media blackout in a place without alternative sources of information. We are talking about a place where the Chamber of Commerce <a href="law" rel="nofollow">organized</a> a fund-raising drive for media strategy and communications a few days prior to the coup... <br /><br />So of course some (47%) are going to believe propaganda about re-election, when the opposite view is not allowed to be heard. Even when Zelaya was around, the major media ignored his clear statements about not being interested in re-election (and played up the other angle big time). <br /><br />But the larger point is that a coup can not be judged on popularity. Cristina stressed this the other day, remarking how the Plaza de Mayo used to be full of Argentinians supporting the dictatorship. Many are in fact "popular."leftsidehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00676827005815770066noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-77457072215760174772009-07-10T19:58:26.117-04:002009-07-10T19:58:26.117-04:00Abby -
I just emailed Cid Honduras to see if the...Abby - <br /><br />I just emailed Cid Honduras to see if there is an official document yet.Doug Zylstrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03023935711242140793noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-5561224265028191562009-07-10T18:50:19.120-04:002009-07-10T18:50:19.120-04:00That's supposedly the same survey (dates and i...That's supposedly the same survey (dates and interviews), but different numbers from what everyone else (including Reuters and Honduran media) reported. My guess is that AP made an error, but hopefully CID-Gallup will publish more complete results on their website to clarify.bozhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13233148632004720002noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-72046893113110066342009-07-10T18:27:53.575-04:002009-07-10T18:27:53.575-04:00I'm confused. Now AP says
A new CID-Gallup po...I'm confused. Now <a href="http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jAkMGKIUDg_ngUiZboxQbYj5_DPwD99BRHI00" rel="nofollow">AP says</a><br> <br />A new CID-Gallup poll indicated that Hondurans were split on the coup, with a slight majority appearing to oppose it.<br /><br />Forty-six percent said they disagreed with Zelaya's ouster and 41 percent said they approved of it, according to the face-to-face survey of 1,204 Hondurans in the days following the ouster. Another 13 percent declined to answer.<br /><br />They were about evenly divided on Zelaya himself, with 31 percent saying they had a positive image of him and 32 percent negative. That was close to findings of a similar poll four months ago in which positive views outpaced negative by 4 percentage points.<br /><br />The pollsters said the survey, conducted in 16 of Honduras' 18 provinces from June 30 to July 4, had a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.Abby Kelleyitehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06510968255983729033noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-45322452693794498172009-07-10T17:39:10.756-04:002009-07-10T17:39:10.756-04:00Greg, the mention of Presidential terms on pg. 39-...Greg, the mention of Presidential terms on pg. 39-40 is in relation to Article 374, which says you can not reform a number of things, terms being one of them. However, it does not contain the automatic removal from office provision that is contained in Article 239. <br /><br />So, we are back at my original assumption that 239 was *not* mentioned in the Court documents. Again, this is a critically important distinction as the provisions in 239 are what is being latched onto by the coup apologists to justify the "legal" removal of Zelaya from office...leftsidehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00676827005815770066noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-86589143564367510032009-07-10T16:49:56.652-04:002009-07-10T16:49:56.652-04:00As I noted in my original post, pp. 39-40 specific...As I noted in my original post, pp. 39-40 specifically mention the prohibition on reforming re-election. That is repeated later, though in a different document basically copying the first.Greg Weekshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-23932952499375030312009-07-10T16:39:37.460-04:002009-07-10T16:39:37.460-04:00To clarify, Article 239 *was* mentioned, but was o...<i>To clarify, Article 239 *was* mentioned, but was only a very minor part of an overall argument that focused on other issues.</i><br /><br />Where is it mentioned Greg? I don't see it. Irregardless, the point stands that those trying to hang their hat on a legal removal from office because of a violation of Article 239 are mistaken. If there were really a violation of 239 ruled on by the Courts, there would have been no need for the "resignation letter" charade and all the rest. <br /><br />Again, I would appreciate if you told us exactly where you see a mention of Article 239 in the 86 page document. I don't see it.leftsidehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00676827005815770066noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-34770572377197542012009-07-10T15:37:23.305-04:002009-07-10T15:37:23.305-04:00It was done by the local CID-Gallup group. Their n...It was done by the local CID-Gallup group. Their numbers are usually pretty solid in Honduras and elsewhere in Central America. As I note on my blog, there are some significant challenges to polling immediately after a coup, but if any company in Central America is going to do a good job of it, this is the one.bozhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13233148632004720002noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-56292607201883283382009-07-10T15:24:58.722-04:002009-07-10T15:24:58.722-04:00According to results of a Gallup poll published he...<i>According to results of a Gallup poll published here Thursday, 41 percent of Hondurans think the ouster was justified, with 28 opposed to it.</i><br /><br />I would be interested in finding out who Gallup contracted to do this poll and what the methodology was. The figures could be legit, but I wouldn't just accept them at face value until I know something about who conducted the poll and how they went about it. There's just too much of a history of biased polling to take it all at face value.Justin Delacourhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01343303383195336825noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-63871554094339188342009-07-10T15:00:57.597-04:002009-07-10T15:00:57.597-04:00To clarify, Article 239 *was* mentioned, but was o...To clarify, Article 239 *was* mentioned, but was only a very minor part of an overall argument that focused on other issues.Greg Weekshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.com