Two Weeks Notice: A Latin American Politics Blog

I read Aran Shetterly's book about Morgan and ...

2012-05-23T21:18:38.942-04:00

I read Aran Shetterly's book about Morgan and recommend it. It's quite a forgotten element of the revolution's history.

The Argentine case is usually seen as an exception...

2012-05-23T19:45:39.761-04:00

The Argentine case is usually seen as an exception because of how badly the military crumbled in the early 1980s, which is not the case elsewhere (such as Brazil). It lost influence.

Do I think that the Chavez political machine wi...

2012-05-23T12:24:35.839-04:00
Do I think that the Chavez political machine will paint him as nothing more than a poster boy of privilege?

I would suggest that you set your ideology aside for a moment and deal with one simple political FACT. Independently of what you or I think of Capriles' politics, the reason the Chavista political machine has no difficulty painting Capriles as a poster boy of privilege is that Capriles comes from an extraordinarily wealthy family and simply looks like a rich kid. From the very first time I saw a picture of Capriles as the young and stylish Barruta mayor in his white baseball cap, it was obvious to me that the Chavistas would have no difficulty painting Capriles in the way that you describe.

If the Venezuelan opposition doesn't want its candidates to be painted as poster children of privilege, perhaps it should consider cultivating other kinds of leaders.

Now, if you want to split hairs over whether Capriles is from the "old" economic establishment (as opposed to just the plain economic establishment), you're welcome to waste your time in doing so, but the reality of Capriles' image will remain.

I haven't read the articles by Zaverucha, but ...

2012-05-23T11:28:52.501-04:00
I haven't read the articles by Zaverucha, but he also has a book called "Fragil Democracia" that goes into great depth about the Sarney, Collor, and Cardoso administrations' kowtowing to military interests (up to 1998). Ironically, Cardoso, who during the dictatorship had been the most persecuted of the three post-regime presidents, ended up having the highest number of military officials in his cabinet. From what I recall of the book more generally, Zaverrucha he suggested that, although the military had stepped down, the tenuous transition to civilian rule (complicated by Tancredo Neves' death) and its history of involvement in politics (7 interventions, failed or successful, in national politics between 1930 and 1964) meant that, while publicly the military swore off political involvement, behind the scenes of government it still exerted a not-insignificant measure of pressure.

What about the argentinian example? In a moment of...

2012-05-23T10:50:29.349-04:00
What about the argentinian example? In a moment of an enormous crisis (as much economical as political), the civil government decided to nullify the amnesty laws and begin with judgments in regular civil courts against the militaries (and police officers) responsible of torturing, murdering and dissapearing of people during the militar regime of 1976-1983.

To wit: 1) Capriles identity does not fit the prof...

2012-05-23T08:01:03.843-04:00
To wit: 1) Capriles identity does not fit the profile of the "old order" in his identity, 2) Capriles' politics are a response to Chavismo not a desired restoration of the pre-Chavez political system, 3) Capriles is interested in social reforms and winning over the disadvantaged as an explicit campaign strategy, 4) he wants to combat crime, corruption and inflation from a democratic, capitalist and rule of law perspective. All of these reasons are visible in my post on why you are dogmatic in your thinking but you choose not to acknowledge it. Or you distort the reasons.

Do I think that the Chavez political machine will paint him as nothing more than a poster boy of privilege? Yes, they already have and you are just echoing the message here. Rich kid. I get it. You have provided a fine service to the president for life, Justin.

Do I think he will win? I have doubts given the power of the state, the price of oil and the nature of populism. I think Venezuela's populism may have to implode before a new system can be initiated. In the meantime I think he is quite public spirited and courageous in trying to make the opposition's case in a different way. Capriles could easily be living and working in Panama City, Miami or New York and waiting the whole thing out. He would still be a rich kid.

Once again, anonymous, you've failed to offer ...

2012-05-22T19:35:03.041-04:00
Once again, anonymous, you've failed to offer any argument at all as to how I'm being "dogmatic" when I make the simple case that Capriles' candidacy does nothing to change the image of the Venezuelan opposition as a group that represents the interests of the privileged.

Clearly you must be desperate. Are you willing to...

2012-05-22T18:57:11.329-04:00
Clearly you must be desperate. Are you willing to accept that your so-called fact "he's also Jewish" is not a fact at all? Or do you deny Capriles the right to proclaim his own self-identity as a Catholic?

When confronted with inconvenient facts you resort to altering my argument. I never said "all" Chavistas were thugs nor anti-semitic. The dogma remains your characterization of Capriles as a poster boy for the old economic order.

I will leave it to readers to determine whether you are dogmatic. In my view the only thing I ever see you "waivering" about is how hard to attack people who disagree with you. I pity your students.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/news/ap/ politics...

2012-05-22T18:42:01.489-04:00
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/news/ap/
politics_topics/2012/Feb/17/
jewish_group__chavez_foe_a_target
_of_anti_semitism.html

"The relevance though is that the Chavista th...

2012-05-22T15:33:21.314-04:00
"The relevance though is that the Chavista thugs have repeatedly used anti-semitic smears against him."

"The Chavista thugs"? So your argument now is that all Chavistas are not only thugs but also anti-Semitic?

I'll let others be the judge of who's using dogma here.

I have little doubt that there are some misguided souls within the ranks of Chavismo who have made anti-Semitic statements (as anti-Semitism is not all that uncommon in Latin America), but to suggest that Chavistas in general are anti-Semitic suggests to me that you're not really interested in reasoned analysis.

If anybody has made anti-Semitic statements against Capriles, those statements should be condemned. Nevertheless, your point has no bearing on anything I've written here. The point was was that Capriles' candidacy does nothing to change the image of the Venezuelan opposition as a group that represents the interests of the privileged. You've yet to offer one serious argument as to how anything I've written here is dogmatic.

I know perfectly well he comes from the upper clas...

2012-05-22T08:30:02.007-04:00
I know perfectly well he comes from the upper class. He is not necessarily from the old order though. This apparently is a distinction lost on your subtle mind. Likewise, he is not Jewish but a descendant of jewish immigrants through his mother. He is a practicing Catholic. The relevance though is that the Chavista thugs have repeatedly used anti-semitic smears against him. One practical definition of dogma might very well be your declaration of its irrelevance before considering the facts that you misstate.

Obviously you don't know the meaning of the te...

2012-05-21T13:39:46.376-04:00
Obviously you don't know the meaning of the term "dogmatic." That Capriles comes from a super-rich family is common knowledge among Venezuelans. The fact that he's also Jewish is wholly irrelevant. The point is that, independently of what one might think of Capriles' politics, his candidacy does nothing to change the image of the Venezuelan opposition as a group that represents the interests of the privileged. Given that the Venezuelan opposition has been in the political wilderness for quite a long time now, one might think that it would be a bit more interested in altering its image.

"A pretty boy of Venezuela's old economic...

2012-05-20T07:36:15.539-04:00
"A pretty boy of Venezuela's old economic establishment" is a rather dogmatic description. The opposition candidate Capriles has been elected repeatedly since 1998 for his opposition to Chavez, his lack of ties to the old political parties and his willingness to embrace social reforms. He cites Lula as a role model. He is a descendant of immigrant Jews, 39 years old, and chose to enter politics to combat Chavismo rather than exile, not exactly the poster boy for the old way. Of course I don't know whether he can win, the odds are certainly against it, but the issues of corruption, crime and inflation are very important to voters. Lastly, to point out a diction error--a waiver = a surrender of a privilege, an exception. To waver = to vacillate between choices.

Indeed, the Venezuelan opposition has never really...

2012-05-18T16:49:48.157-04:00
Indeed, the Venezuelan opposition has never really learned how to make inroads among waivering supporters of Chavismo. Choosing a pretty boy of Venezuela's old economic establishment as your candidate is never going to be a game-changer.

add in paucity of opposition

2012-05-18T09:17:46.164-04:00
add in paucity of opposition

http://lasa-2.univ.pitt.edu/LARR/prot/ search/retr...

2012-05-16T22:57:46.688-04:00
http://lasa-2.univ.pitt.edu/LARR/prot/
search/retrieve/?Vol=26&Num=3&Start=7

http://www.ascecuba.org/publications/ proceedings/...

2012-05-16T22:45:54.433-04:00
http://www.ascecuba.org/publications/
proceedings/volume19/pdfs/
perezlopezmesalago.pdf

http://www.miamiherald.com/2008/ 12/12/810847/afte...

2012-05-16T22:34:07.555-04:00
http://www.miamiherald.com/2008/
12/12/810847/after-50-years-cuba-
has-little.html

I agree, though apparently people didn't think...

2012-05-16T16:34:03.846-04:00
I agree, though apparently people didn't think so...

Grisham fans should know already that, in addition...

2012-05-16T09:14:39.803-04:00
Grisham fans should know already that, in addition to being an attorney, he is a Cards fan and and ardent supporter of Little League. This isn't Grisham's first foray into baseball writing.

Btw, aren't baseball novels supposed to be corny?

"I also believe many of the Cuban social indi...

2012-05-16T01:19:31.516-04:00
"I also believe many of the Cuban social indicators are manufactured and represent various degrees of BS"

Sounds a bit like the climate denier who says that facts presented by scientists about global warming are "manufactured and represent various degrees of BS." Your mere opinion on the subject does not qualify as evidence that UN data on Cuba should be dismissed.

"The question you don't answer is whether people in a country with such wonderful statistics would answer a poll because they were protected from Dengue fever while at the same time they were hungry."

Well, given that the average Cuban's life expectancy is almost identical to that of the average U.S. citizen now, I'll go out on a limb here and posit that the level of genuine hunger in Cuba is probably a lot lower than you imagine it to be.

"The reason you don't answer the question is that you are committed to defending the regime."

Notice that you use a neo-McCarthyite style of reasoning. According to this style of reasoning, I'm supposed to stick my head in the sand and pretend that there can be nothing that the Cuban state has ever done well. Somehow, if I acknowledge basic facts about, say, Cuba's successes in protecting people from dengue fever and hurricanes and bringing down the infant mortality rate, I must be "committed to defending the regime" in its totality.

No, anonymous. A real social scientist is committed to recognizing basic facts and not dismissing those facts a priori because some folks (such as yourself) don't find such facts to be convenient to your cause.

No contradiction on my part and no changing the to...

2012-05-15T21:58:56.110-04:00
No contradiction on my part and no changing the topic for you. I agree that there have been impressive gains in the technical skills of literacy under the Castro dictatorship. I also believe many of the Cuban social indicators are manufactured and represent various degrees of BS. The question you don't answer is whether people in a country with such wonderful statistics would answer a poll because they were protected from Dengue fever while at the same time they were hungry. The reason you don't answer the question is that you are committed to defending the regime. Blindly.

on the issue of unaccompanied children, i suggest ...

2012-05-15T17:51:39.216-04:00
on the issue of unaccompanied children, i suggest you an international website http://minoristranierinonaccompagnati.blogspot.it/?m=1

So first you claim that certain social indicators ...

2012-05-15T17:16:53.676-04:00
So first you claim that certain social indicators are merely the Cuban government's "manufactured social indicators," but now you acknowledge that they are indeed facts but somehow ones that we should ignore. I posit that, when people ignore such facts, they do so at the expense of any serious understanding of Cuban politics and society. Of course, there are other facts that one could point to in criticizing the Cuban regime, and nobody is arguing here that those facts are any less important. What I am saying, rather, is that, while you (and Greg) discount certain social indicators, you have yet to offer any serious argument as to why those indicators are somehow irrelevant to the discussion at hand.

Let's take one example. Without parsing the numbers, the evidence seems to indicate that the average Afro-Cuban has a considerably higher life expectancy than the average African-American. Do you honestly think that such a fact --assuming that it is a fact-- could simply be ignored in any serious analysis of Cuban politics and society?

Of course facts are stubborn things. I don't i...

2012-05-15T16:32:57.696-04:00
Of course facts are stubborn things. I don't ignore facts. I agree it is important that Cubans can decode the Spanish language in impressive numbers. However, they can't read, discuss and write what interests them. You may call the former an impressive fact but I would not label it education. The weight one gives to facts is what is at issue here. You accuse me of wearing ideological binders but refuse to address whether people respond to polls like this based on quantitative bureaucratic statistics or the fundamental measures of the quality of their daily lives. I suggest you re-read EP Thompson. Only an academic could be so stupid.