tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post613982938259439583..comments2024-02-21T05:16:22.788-05:00Comments on Two Weeks Notice: A Latin American Politics Blog: Bolsonaro Part 2: Will Bolsonaro Boost Venezuelan Fascism?Greg Weekshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-77130773832254028512018-10-30T08:14:32.828-04:002018-10-30T08:14:32.828-04:00Maduro's term ends January 10. This will creat...Maduro's term ends January 10. This will create a power vacuum which can be filled by a transitional government. Thus the key issue is who takes Maduro out, whether the Cubans replace him with a more effective satrap, whether Barboza, Allup and the other pseudo opposition clowns play ball with the chavistas, etc. I would anticipate Raul Castro is anticipating what is coming, and is maneuvering accordingly.<br /><br />Bolsonaro can help Venezuela by joining the Lima Group and moving troops to the north, to cut off FARC, ELN and other colombian gangs which moved into Amazonas state and are destroying the jungle with their medieval gold mining operations. A move by brazilian troops into Amazonas will help, but only this is coordinated with a Colombian push into Zulia. I'm familiar with that region, and the key again is to neutralize Colombian FARC and the agents and military sent by Castro within Colombian Catatumbo to facilitate their logistics as they move north and east towards Machiques, Bachaquero and El Vigia. The US would make the third push, i assume into Maracaibo and Paraguana and Coro, severing Western Venezuela. <br /><br />I'm sketching an intervention scenario based on my knowledge of the terrain, and the fact that the Venezuelan Army isnt fit. Castro has laid out to fight guerrilla warfare Iraqi style using Colombians and hard core Venezuelan communists, so it wont be easy. But in none of the likely scenarios does Braxil play a large role. As regards fascism, that's simple minded name calling on your part. Venezuela's transitional government would have to impose martial law until chavista, Colombian and Cuban terrorists are dealt with. Fernando Leanmehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16085680730729620836noreply@blogger.com