tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-216746242024-03-19T04:48:19.198-04:00Two Weeks Notice: A Latin American Politics BlogGreg Weekshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.comBlogger5271125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-80619867777500901342020-11-04T09:04:00.002-05:002020-11-04T09:05:24.543-05:00Final Blog PostThis is my 5,277th and final blog post. This blog has been tremendous fun, but I've found that I am consistently choosing to spend my time and energy doing other things.<div><br /></div><div>I actually chose today of all days because I wondered whether the day after a huge election would change my mind. There are interesting stories: the effects of Venezuelan socialism, the vote in Miami, the impact on Latin America, and any number of others. But it really didn't. I am doing other stuff, even administrative, like trying to figure out how to give students an international experience in the Covid-19 era. I will still write, of course, but I also want to find new outlets. All of this is true for my podcast as well, which was a cool experience but one I've found myself thinking about less and less.</div><div><br /></div><div>Anyway, it's been over 14 years. I started as a pretty new Associate Professor. Back then, the big debate was whether to blog as an untenured professor. That was a long time ago.</div><div><br /></div><div>Thanks for reading, and I'll see you around.</div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="vertical-align:middle;border:0"/></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml">Subscribe in a reader</a></p></div>Greg Weekshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-75399434401524572872020-10-05T13:39:00.004-04:002020-10-05T14:10:57.525-04:00SOUTHCOM and Latin America in the Covid Era<p></p><div>I watched the <a href="https://www.as-coa.org/events/conversation-us-southern-commands-admiral-craig-faller-and-ambassador-jean-manes">Council of the Americas webinar</a> with SOUTHCOM Commander Craig Faller and Civilian Deputy Commander Jean Manes, with Eric Farnsworth moderating. Some interesting discussion, with the kind of emphasis you would expect from SOUTHCOM. Here are my quick thoughts:</div><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Major issue is Chinese illegal fishing around Ecuador and Peru (<a href="https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/voa-news-china/300-chinese-fishing-ships-south-america-coast-raise-food-security">see here</a> for background). I have to wonder how much that could sour Latin American views of China. On Twitter, <a href="https://twitter.com/tnor27/status/1313165335856640000?s=20">Tracy North notes</a> that it also affects Nicaragua, which they did not mention. I don't know if that was intentional (because of politics) or not.</li></ul><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Manes: the U.S. role in providing aid for Covid "hasn't been covered in the news much" but they keep careful track to make sure no other outside government (esp. China) does more. It's quite the cold way of looking at it--give more aid only if China does so first. The U.S. does not want other countries to "take advantage." I imagine Latin American leaders would not tend to view any Covid aid as "taking advantage." As for the news comment, it sounds in line with Trump but it's a constant in U.S. policy toward Latin America--the news is never quite positive enough of U.S. actions.</li></ul><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Faller: can we even call the Maduro regime a "regime" because it's a small group of criminals. Well, they control the government, so yes, it's a regime. That was a surprising and uninformed offhand comment intended as an insult, I guess.</li></ul><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Manes: the Colombia peace process is "on pause" because of Covid, at least until a vaccine, like other initiatives around the region. I get this, <a href="https://colombiareports.com/how-colombia-is-using-coronavirus-pandemic-to-end-peace-process/">but one could argue</a> it was already on pause before Covid because the Duque government is not committed to it, and the pandemic is just an excuse.</li></ul><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Faller: U.S. training of Latin Americans has actually increased because of technology. That actually makes sense, because at the university we find larger meeting participation.</li></ul><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Both Faller and Manes: U.S.-Brazilian relations at the military-military level are very good. I have not followed this, but it also makes sense--at that level it can transcend the politics of the particular government in power.</li></ul><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Faller had a not-so-veiled threat to countries pursuing agreements with China: "Our ability to have a trusting relationship will be jeopardized." Such a threat really suggests weakness--China is making inroads and the U.S. cannot figure out how to address it.</li></ul><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Manes: once someone decides to emigrate, you've already lost. You need to improve things at home. The big question, though, is how to deal with migrants when they reach the U.S. Her logic would suggest that just sending them home is a bad idea, though obviously that's not the Trump logic.</li></ul><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Venezuela: not much new. Faller: the external actors there are the "intricate weave of a Persian rug." Weird way to put it, but whatever.</li></ul><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>No questions or discussion of Mexico. That surprised me. Mexico as a partner is more important than China as an adversary, I'd say. <b>Update:</b> I've been reminded via email that Mexico does not fall under SOUTHCOM. So this is worth mentioning. But it's weird to hear Central American migration kind of ending there.</li></ul><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="vertical-align:middle;border:0"/></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml">Subscribe in a reader</a></p></div>Greg Weekshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-18149008976563558322020-09-18T16:15:00.002-04:002020-09-18T16:15:50.080-04:00Ecuador's Treatment of Venezuelan Migrants<div>Beyers, Christiaan., & Esteban Nicholls (2020). "Government through Inaction: The Venezuelan Migratory Crisis in Ecuador." <i>Journal of Latin American Studies</i>, 52(3), 633-657.</div><div><br /></div><a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-latin-american-studies/article/government-through-inaction-the-venezuelan-migratory-crisis-in-ecuador/7CB15DA1291EBC16C6E4C2699009D28B/core-reader">Abstract</a> (gated):<br /><blockquote>This article analyses strategies for channelling a migrant population out of a country by indirect means. Specifically, we examine the response of the Ecuadorean state to the influx of Venezuelan newcomers since 2015. We argue that this response has been characterised by inaction, rooted not in policy failures or bad governance, but rather in a strategic governmental rationality. We show how migrants are ‘herded’ out of the country as a result of a form of indirect government that works differently from other ‘anti-immigrant’ policies like forced deportations or incarceration at the border, and yet produces similar outcomes.</blockquote><p>I found this to be originally and fascinating. The foundation of this inaction policy is Lenín Moreno:</p><p></p><blockquote>The strategic ‘inaction’ that we uncovered during our research is explained in part by the political weakness of the Moreno regime, which, during its first three years in power, resulted in a please-all stance towards sensitive political issues such as the Venezuelan question. </blockquote><p></p><p>And its implementation (if inaction can be labeled as such) is pretty twisted.</p><p></p><blockquote>Our interviews with Venezuelans in Quito confirmed that many would prefer to remain in Ecuador. The majority who do stay do so because they have family, friends or a business partner in Ecuador. By contrast, the majority of Venezuelans who leave do so because of what is generally described as an impossible-to-comply-with series of legal requirements and administrative steps, and a general sense that the government is indifferent to their struggles. These subject dispositions are in themselves concrete effects of the governmentality of inaction. </blockquote><p>What they describe is a bureaucratic dystopia, where red tape becomes the means for what in the U.S. Mitt Romney once famously labeled "self-deportation." A critical difference from the U.S., however is that the public face of the government is benign. Ecuador "welcomes" Venezuelan migrants but makes it too much of a paperwork hassle to stay. Sorry, just following the rules.</p><p></p><blockquote>The vice-minister goes on to acknowledge that, while Venezuelans ‘often arrive only with what they have on them’, the government cannot ‘exempt citizens entering the country from any requirements’, and effectively concludes that it is doing all it can towards some eventual resolution of the problem.</blockquote><p>The system is actually specifically intended <i>not</i> to work. Migrants cannot get licenses to do any work and eventually give up. Word of the difficulties go back to Venezuela, and so new migrants come primed not to stay. They conclude by suggesting that this is part of an overall Moreno problem of inaction.</p><p></p><p></p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="vertical-align:middle;border:0"/></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml">Subscribe in a reader</a></p></div>Greg Weekshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-45290302617121863142020-09-16T09:49:00.000-04:002020-09-16T09:49:28.078-04:00Venezuela Committing Crimes Against Humanity The UN Human Rights Council sent an Independent International Fact-Finding Mission to Venezuela, and <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/Pages/NewsDetail.aspx?NewsID=26247&LangID=E">it just issued a report</a>. It's incredibly damning:<div><div></div></div><blockquote><div><div>While recognising the nature of the crisis and tensions in the country, and the responsibilities of the State to maintain public order, the Mission found the Government, State agents, and groups working with them had committed egregious violations. It identified patterns of violations and crimes that were highly coordinated pursuant to State policies, and part of a widespread and systematic course of conduct, <b>thus amounting to crimes against humanity</b>.</div></div></blockquote><p>There is a state policy of extrajudicial killings and torture. It says this got going in 2014, which coincides with the aftermath of Hugo Chávez's death and Nicolás Maduro's desperate efforts to stay in power. State violence is all he's got. The National Intelligence Service (SEBIN) normalized torture, which included "stress positions; asphyxiation; beatings; electric shocks; cuts and mutilations; death threats; and psychological torture."</p><p><a href="https://www.ohchr.org/Documents/HRBodies/HRCouncil/FFMV/A_HRC_45_CRP.11.pdf">The document itself</a> is over 400 pages and heavily footnoted to demonstrate all the violations of international law. It includes a highly detailed chronology of the political crises that were accompanied by increased use of state violence. At this point, the government targets just about everybody, not just high profile opposition leaders:</p><p></p><blockquote>Intelligence agencies have also targeted other profiles of people seen to challenge official narratives. This includes selected civil servants, judges, prosecutors, defence lawyers, NGO workers, journalists, and bloggers and social media users.630 In 2020, various health, workers and social media users critical of the Government’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic were also detained.631 In July 2020, the Minister of the Interior, Néstor Reverol, announced that Venezuelans who had left the country and are returning would be charged under the Organic Law against Organised Crime and Financing of Terrorism, allegedly for bringing Covid-19 into the country.</blockquote><p></p><blockquote>Also selectively targeted were people associated with these actors, including families, friends and colleagues or NGO workers and human rights defenders. The questions authorities asked these people while in detention and under interrogation appear to suggest that they were detained to incriminate, extract information about or apply pressure on the main targets. This includes organizations that may have provided funding to opposition movements or received international funding. The measures used against people associated with principal targets often matched or exceeded the severity of that inflicted upon principal targets. </blockquote><p></p><p></p><div>They even get down to what detention buildings look like inside.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhe5GX2ivLvl80WlfmFAYd5CR-P5UCwqKyPi0cLDmHmnkepUJq9MCyBT-z_r1SqLOr_0y-ok3GLKcVfewQ0fJ8k7VSOmsdGBekzIEFAsQXYxHjEQyiesZOQvIS7VGluJ6wlhB1m/s610/Screenshot+-+2020-09-16T094304.474.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="453" data-original-width="610" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhe5GX2ivLvl80WlfmFAYd5CR-P5UCwqKyPi0cLDmHmnkepUJq9MCyBT-z_r1SqLOr_0y-ok3GLKcVfewQ0fJ8k7VSOmsdGBekzIEFAsQXYxHjEQyiesZOQvIS7VGluJ6wlhB1m/s320/Screenshot+-+2020-09-16T094304.474.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div>At this point, international organizations can just gather information, which eventually will be used in some manner for accountability once democracy is restored in the country. This is a meticulously documented dictatorship.</div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="vertical-align:middle;border:0"/></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml">Subscribe in a reader</a></p></div>Greg Weekshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-44897273192942824572020-09-14T14:40:00.000-04:002020-09-14T14:40:15.533-04:00Podcast Episode 76: Trump & Latin AmericaIn <a href="https://ia801403.us.archive.org/19/items/episode-76/Episode%2076.mp3">Episode 76 of Understanding Latin American Politics: The Podcast</a>, once again I join forces with the <a href="https://secolas.org/podcast/">Historias</a> podcast of the Southeastern Council of Latin American Studies (which everyone should check out). I talk with Dustin Walcher, Jeff Taffet, Mary Rose Kubal, and Maggie Commins about the Trump administration's policies toward Latin America.<div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxVllFJcOc2TDzf-e3AQE0fE0VGpRTmr-rbwUaRgwTR1jiDY3wGvSX6_YpEjuAwNRv8g-gukCTAbsl490NWfTqZNebUMNsCK97MpCAr0xsq44VfwVYUOAL_lu_n9ofeGt5FtDP/s2048/Podcast+artwork.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1804" data-original-width="2048" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxVllFJcOc2TDzf-e3AQE0fE0VGpRTmr-rbwUaRgwTR1jiDY3wGvSX6_YpEjuAwNRv8g-gukCTAbsl490NWfTqZNebUMNsCK97MpCAr0xsq44VfwVYUOAL_lu_n9ofeGt5FtDP/s320/Podcast+artwork.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div>You can find this podcast at iTunes, Google Play, Spotify, and anywhere else podcasts can be found. If there is anyplace I've missed, please contact me. Subscribe, rate, and keep 6 feet from it.</div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="vertical-align:middle;border:0"/></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml">Subscribe in a reader</a></p></div>Greg Weekshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-27565963591032840272020-09-04T09:34:00.001-04:002020-09-04T09:34:26.177-04:00Repairing U.S.-Latin American Relations<a href="https://www.thedialogue.org/analysis/reparar-el-dano/">Michael Shifter asks</a> whether the damage Trump has wrought on U.S.-Latin American relations can be repaired, starting from an anecdote about how a Mexican business leader said relations would be set back 20 years.<div><br /></div><div>I think there are two things here that go well beyond even what a Biden administration would look like. First, history tells us that <i>of course </i>relations can be repaired. The relationship is just too tight, the interdependence so strong. If we can repair relations with Cuba after years of trying to destroy it, we can do so with Mexico. Even Daniel Ortega tried for a while to engage with the U.S. So this part is easy, and in fact many Latin American presidents are just waiting for someone else in the White House, in a similar way as the 2008 election.</div><div><br /></div><div>But the second is more difficult. China is now a player like never before, a process that became stronger in the 2000 and then accelerated, pedal to the metal, under Trump. That cannot be reversed no matter what the U.S. does. Shifts in trade relations are not super likely unless something happens in China. These are long-terms trends that will not change just because someone new become U.S. president. Latin American countries looked for creative ways to find autonomy from the U.S., and restoration of trust may slow that but will not stop it.</div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="vertical-align:middle;border:0"/></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml">Subscribe in a reader</a></p></div>Greg Weekshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-7420632965675239662020-09-03T09:19:00.000-04:002020-09-03T09:19:42.619-04:00Fake News in the Guatemala Invasion Compared to NowSylvia Brindis Snow and Shane Snow take a deep, deep dive into the U.S. <a href="https://www.blogger.com/u/2/#">use of fake news to overthrow Jacobo Arbenz in 1954</a>. It includes photos and audio. That story is not a new one (though the details make me shake my head no matter how many times I've heard them) but they take it a step further and view it as a precursor to the Russian meddling in U.S. presidential elections. There are interesting parallels.<br /><br />Comparing Hillary Clinton to Arbenz feels like a stretch at times, but it's intriguing. The basic idea is to concoct an entirely false picture from abroad and broadcast it as broadly as possible, radio then and social media now. The CIA created a new reality that the Communists were taken over and that a rebel force was on the march. This was all recorded outside Guatemala by actors. Nothing about it was real. Similarly, we got (and still get) crazy stories about Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden. <div><div><br /></div><div>On the Guatemala side, we see David Atlee Phillips pleased as punch after Arbenz was overthrown, playing bridge and feeling smug. One can easily imagine a parallel in Russian hackers. And in both cases, they are leaving terrible wreckage. The authors conclude by showing how the offending governments cover up their tracks, lying even more. Unable to find any evidence of Communist affiliation in Arbenz's house, the CIA puts in bags of dirt labeled with Communist countries, as if he had collected dirt in his Communist ardor. Stupid, and unconvincing, but convincing enough for those didn't think too much about it, much like now.</div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="vertical-align:middle;border:0"/></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml">Subscribe in a reader</a></p></div>Greg Weekshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-45970561227929355892020-08-29T12:51:00.000-04:002020-08-29T12:51:12.822-04:00Review of Vincent Bevins' The Jakarta Method<div>I recommend Vincent Bevins' recently published <i><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Jakarta-Method-Washingtons-Anticommunist-Crusade/dp/1541742400">The Jakarta Method: Washington's Anticommunist Crusade & the Mass Murder Program that Shaped Our World</a></i>. It starts with an extended discussion of Indonesia and then looks at how Suharto's brutality (the word "Jakarta" became a synonym for mass political murder) was copied elsewhere, with the U.S. government deeply involved everywhere. He uses interviews with those who suffered (and often emigrated) to show how people were affected and felt at the time.</div><div><br /></div>From my perspective as a Latin Americanist, the book's global perspective makes it especially interesting. Events in one part of the world affect others. Revolutionaries and reactionaries alike are reading the news, and trying to glean lessons. Che Guevara and Fidel Castro famously decided from the 1954 Guatemala invasion that the electoral path was suicidal, but Indonesians were learning from Central America too. We know the U.S. government viewed Latin America in global terms, but we talk far less about how places like Indonesia resonated. Because of language barriers, those of us who study Latin America don't tend to do fieldwork in Asia.<div><br /></div><div>The 1960s-1980s in particular was a time of wanton anti-communist slaughter. It was calculated, strategic, and entirely supported by the U.S. government. As he notes, the living carry psychological scars with them, and in Indonesia people still do not feel comfortable discussing it. Those labeled "communist" are still stigmatized, unlike Latin America where they're even becoming presidents of countries. Using the stories from this interviews, he traces the shift from hope and pride during the Sukarno government to fear after Suharto took over and killed roughly a million people.</div><div><div><br /></div><div>Although it's not really a theme of the book, his interviews also show the global migratory impact of mass murder. His interviews, which are in different continents, show people fleeing in all directions, not even necessarily settling in the first country that will take them. I always talk about this in the Central American context in my U.S.-Latin American relations class. But I also lived it while being entirely ignorant of the causes at the time--Bevins mentions the so-called "boat people," some of whom ultimately ended up <a href="https://www.kpbs.org/news/2015/apr/24/how-fall-saigon-made-san-diego-refugee-hub/">in the public schools I attended</a>.</div><div><div><br /></div><div>If there is an overarching political lesson in the book, sadly it is that mass murder worked amazingly well for U.S. political elites. The Cold War was "won" by preserving global capitalism and asserting U.S. hegemony. The average person in the United States is considerably wealthier than most people on the planet. And they are either unaware or uncaring about the violence that contributed to getting them there.</div></div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="vertical-align:middle;border:0"/></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml">Subscribe in a reader</a></p></div>Greg Weekshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-76396668958926533972020-08-26T11:17:00.001-04:002020-08-26T11:17:13.075-04:00Venezuelan Government Attacks Health Workers<a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2020/08/venezuelan-authorities-are-repressing-and-failing-to-protect-health-workers-as-covid-19-gathers-force/">Amnesty International lays out</a> the dire situation Venezuelan health workers are in. Repression, economic collapse, and lying all fold in together. 50% of health workers have emigrated rather than deal with dangerous conditions where often they arrive at work hungry. This is pure brain drain. <div><blockquote>“The Venezuelan authorities are either in denial about the number of health workers to have died from COVID-19, or they do not have accurate information about the precarious conditions in hospitals and the dire need for better protection of staff and patients alike. Either way, the government is being utterly irresponsible,” said Erika Guevara-Rosas, Americas director at Amnesty International.</blockquote><div>Nobody believes anything the government says, and Venezuela is the only country in the hemisphere to imprison doctors who speak truth to power (and then drag them to military tribunals!). There is, of course, lots of tweeting about how successful everything is.</div></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://www.caracaschronicles.com/2020/08/15/venezuela-where-health-workers-face-the-worst-of-covid-19/"><i>Caracas Chronicles</i> provides</a> even more detail.</div><div></div><blockquote><div>In fact, Maduro’s spokespeople almost don’t reference how medical personnel are being affected anymore; they have even criminalized them. On May 22nd, the Information minister, Jorge Rodríguez, said: “Assume that you’re standing in front of a COVID-19 patient. Follow the protocol, use facemasks. We’ve seen videos (…) where healthcare workers aren’t using them. They’re not using gloves, they’re not using the suits they were given to work on these patients.”</div><div><br /></div><div>But the equipment hasn’t arrived. MUV began a campaign on July 23rd to promote donations of biosafety equipment, facemasks, face guards, gloves, surgical caps and scrubs; in Táchira, they reported shortages of up to 70%. In Caracas, Ana Rosario Contreras said that they’re being forced to reuse facemasks and scrubs, a problem already reported by Monitor Salud: in seven out of thirteen hospitals in Caracas, there are no facemasks available, and they’re forced to reuse them in ten of those hospitals. </div></blockquote><p> No surprise, then, that Maduro already has people lined up to <a href="https://tass.com/society/1189077">test the Russian vaccine</a>.</p><div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="vertical-align:middle;border:0"/></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml">Subscribe in a reader</a></p></div>Greg Weekshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-20304830460457140602020-08-25T13:11:00.003-04:002020-08-28T14:20:09.301-04:00The Political Center in ColombiaThe Canadian Council for the Americas <a href="https://www.blogger.com/u/2/#">held a webinar</a> on the political center (sorry, centre!) in Colombia and whether it can unite. There was former Vice President Humberto de Calle (under Ernesto Samper, and he was also the head of the negotiating team with the FARC*) and then a bit later also Colombian journalists and a financier, moderated by Ken Frankel.<br /><br />The quick answer is that it's really tricky.<div><br /></div><div>De la Calle's main point was that, unlike Colombian political tradition, the center needed to start with a basic program rather than choosing a person to rally around. He gave various indicators, based on local election results and polls, about an appetite for centrist positions and parties. Centrist policy positions included agrarian reform, tax reform, pension reform, and crop substitution.</div><div><br /></div><div>But that is where the conversation got more difficult. Responses included asking where was the focus on women and youth? If the right dominated non-urban areas, how was this going to function? What are some concrete objectives? Doesn't this seem too top-down? And, fundamentally, what is the "center" anyway?</div><div><br /></div><div>Unless I missed it toward the end, when I had interruptions and missed chunks, the political mechanics of all this was missing. Who gets the ball rolling, which means controlling the message at the beginning? De la Calle advocated for self-exclusion, meaning no one would be rejected as long as they broadly accepted the program. But that depends on who defines the program.</div><div><br /></div><div>I've written before about how the FARC really screwed the democratic left in Colombia, because it's too easy to connect the left to the FARC (and nowadays also to Venezuela, though I don't know how much that actually convinces people). But I hadn't thought as much about the center. This discussion demonstrated to me how tough such a project would be. The essential question "can it unite?" just kind of hung there. Fear has served the right very well, and it's hard to overcome.</div><div><br />* <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humberto_De_la_Calle">His overall political biography</a> is really interesting.</div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="vertical-align:middle;border:0"/></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml">Subscribe in a reader</a></p></div>Greg Weekshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-38632031510251640222020-08-14T14:01:00.003-04:002020-08-14T14:01:25.568-04:00Bolsonaro's PopularityI recommend Brian Winter's <a href="https://www.blogger.com/u/2/#">article in Foreign Affairs</a> on the durability of Jair Bolsonaro's popularity, which in fact <a href="https://www.blogger.com/u/2/#">just went up</a>. He zeroes in on the country's interior:<br /><blockquote>The <i>interiorzão</i> is not defined on any map, but it generally refers to a belt of land sagging around the country’s geographic midsection, from the state of Mato Grosso do Sul in the west through Goiás, Minas Gerais, and parts of Bahia in the east. This is a Brazil of soy farms and cattle ranches, oversize Ford pickup trucks, air-conditioned shopping malls, and all-you-can-eat steakhouses. Some of it is old, but much of it was erected only in the last 30 years or so. Instead of Afro-Catholic syncretism and bossa nova, it boasts evangelical megachurches and sertanejo, a kind of tropicalized country music sung by barrel-chested men in cowboy hats and Wrangler jeans.It is Brazil's equivalent to flyover country, parts that are not tourist destinations and do not correspond to the foreigner's view of the country as a whole. As with Trump in the U.S., it constitutes a core of support that's not likely to fall away.</blockquote>I can imagine a similar worldview holding there and here. What I consider to be destroying institutions, Bolsonaro/Trump supporters see "getting things done." What I see as unacceptable rhetoric, they see as a return to morality. What I see as conspiracy theories, they see as truths. What I clearly see as lying, they see as "telling it like it is." Brazil's political history is so different from the U.S., but there are parallels here.<div><br /></div><div>As Brian writes, quite a few elites have repented their support for Bolsonaro. The same has happened here, but that doesn't necessarily signal change. That core is still there, and they love the show they're seeing. The difficulty for any analyst is to truly move away from trying to sort out self-interest. People adore their president despite the fact that he is screwing them. Depressed economic growth, rampant virus, you name it (wrecked post office, even!).<br /></div><div><br /></div><div>From an electoral standpoint, it's sobering. The party systems of the two countries are so different that comparison isn't worthwhile, but at a very basic level, established opposite parties will find it hard to convince that core base that they have anything to offer. To win, you need to bring everyone else together.</div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="vertical-align:middle;border:0"/></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml">Subscribe in a reader</a></p></div>Greg Weekshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-64427523965633288082020-08-12T12:33:00.001-04:002020-08-12T12:33:20.673-04:00Completely Broken Immigration SystemI watched <a href="https://www.blogger.com/u/2/#">WOLA's webinar on immigration</a>: "Stranded Between Borders: Draconian Responses to a Regional Migration Crisis." Adam Isacson moderated, with the following guests:<br /><br />Gretchen Kuhner, Institution for Women in Migration (Mexico), <br /><br />Marco Romero, CODHES and Professor at the National University of Colombia<br /><br />Ursula Roldán, Institute for Research and Projection on Global and Territorial Dynamics of the Rafael Landívar University (Guatemala)<div><br /></div><div>It was particularly worthwhile because it didn't in fact focus on Trump per se, but rather the responses and realities in the Latin American countries.</div><div><br /></div><div>The overall message is that the immigration system is utterly, terribly, broken. The Trump administration is not only anti-immigrant, but it reneges on agreements. AMLO bows down to Trump just to avoid being attacked, and his own anti-immigrant policies are fine with his base in Mexico. Colombia has nothing but short-term, emergency responses when it needs much more. Immigrants live precariously at borders with no solution in sigtht. Covid-19 hovers over all of this, because vulnerable migrants find themselves infected and bureaucracies have ground to a halt.</div><div><br /></div><div>Tied to that, there is so little hope for meaningful change. No current president is willing to build a long-term humane system, and is generally doing the opposite. Even if Joe Biden wins the presidency, it will take a long time to undo the damage that the Trump administration inflicted on immigration policy and immigrants.</div><div><br /></div><div>The only positive note was that remittances to Guatemala were up in July. I can't even imagine how that is possible, <a href="https://www.voanoticias.com/centroamerica/guatemala-remesas-familiares-alcanzan-cifra-historica">but it is</a>.</div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="vertical-align:middle;border:0"/></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml">Subscribe in a reader</a></p></div>Greg Weekshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-88197991566608112042020-08-11T10:45:00.001-04:002020-08-11T10:45:30.776-04:00Plan Colombia is Problematic<p><a href="https://www.thedialogue.org/blogs/2020/08/scowcroft-and-colombia/">Michael Shifter writes of Brent Scowcroft</a> in glowing terms for his role in promoting Plan Colombia. One thing I've noticed over the years is that advocates know Plan Colombia had some massively negative consequences, and so feel obligated to at least make some mention, but without going into detail and then head straight back to compliments. Examples from his short essay:</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>"however seriously flawed"</li><li>"Criticism centered around human rights concerns"</li><li>"failed to achieve its highest priority objective"</li><li>"for all of its flaws in conception and implementation"</li></ul><div>That's a lot of qualifiers. More specifically, <a href="https://www.internal-displacement.org/database/displacement-data">let's look at the most recent data</a> from the International Displacement Monitoring Centre:</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglYxs2zWjeMgjdlCIOBwCh94KXrK9rfQhLVZbz9EuEdO9vFC4tnYrBNDLVfkgKykkKoEPePFRqIMKzAQEKewSR3UG_u22_AAAKqkt27HM4LUXOMPXHOAL3jJSaV-TT4-IexT0W/s1419/Screenshot+-+2020-08-11T102630.357.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="1419" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglYxs2zWjeMgjdlCIOBwCh94KXrK9rfQhLVZbz9EuEdO9vFC4tnYrBNDLVfkgKykkKoEPePFRqIMKzAQEKewSR3UG_u22_AAAKqkt27HM4LUXOMPXHOAL3jJSaV-TT4-IexT0W/s640/Screenshot+-+2020-08-11T102630.357.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>This is Plan Colombia in action--it created a disaster along Syrian lines for millions of Colombians, but they just don't get much attention. President Alvaro Uribe, who was largely responsible for implementing it after he took office in 2002, is a thug who oversaw major human rights violations, and <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/08/05/colombia-uribes-house-arrest-tests-rule-law">is currently under house arrest</a> for bribing members of paramilitaries so that he wouldn't be implicated for his involvement with them.</div><div><br /></div><div>I understand fully that Plan Colombia served to ramp up the government's side in the civil war, and as a result it was able to weaken the FARC sufficiently to force it to negotiate, which stabilized the country. I am not trying to pretend that didn't happen. But it definitely needs to be seen as only side of a violent coin.</div><p></p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="vertical-align:middle;border:0"/></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml">Subscribe in a reader</a></p></div>Greg Weekshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-18904403372933892482020-08-10T10:16:00.005-04:002020-08-10T10:16:57.696-04:00Trump's Latin America Nominees Are Bad in the Same Way<p>Not long ago, <a href="https://theglobalamericans.org/2020/08/trumps-latin-america-team/">I wrote</a> about how Trump pick for Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs, Carlos Trujillo, was a bad choice. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/08/09/latin-america-must-reject-trumps-attempt-leave-his-mark-regions-crucial-development-bank/">Now Chris Sabatini wrote </a>what is like a companion piece, namely that Trump's pick to head the Inter-American Development Bank, Mauricio Claver-Crone, is a terrible choice.</p><p>Plus, they are terrible in almost exactly the same ways. They are Marco Rubio-groomed ideologues with no experience, chosen solely with Florida electoral votes in mind. They are obsessed with Cuba and Venezuela, and can't seem to concentrate much on anything else.</p><p></p><blockquote>The White House’s nomination of Mauricio Claver-Carone seems certainly informed by domestic politics — part of its strategy to win Florida’s 29 electoral votes in November. Currently the senior director for Western Hemisphere affairs at the National Security Council, Claver-Carone’s previous experience was running a one-man lobbying shop for the U.S.-Cuba embargo. The underqualified candidate owes his meteoric rise from relative obscurity to his benefactor, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) — though the senator’s patronage twice failed to get him appointed as assistant secretary of state for the Western Hemisphere, raising the question of why he should be in charge of a regional development institution at a time of unprecedented economic and social distress in Latin America.</blockquote><p>These are important jobs at any time, but especially now. Latin America is in crisis, and political hacks are just not the way to go. They seem guaranteed to focus on all the wrong things.</p><p></p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="vertical-align:middle;border:0"/></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml">Subscribe in a reader</a></p></div>Greg Weekshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-50782270202585040882020-08-09T12:19:00.000-04:002020-08-09T12:19:26.707-04:00Jorge Castañeda's America through Foreign EyesI read Jorge Castañeda's <a href="https://www.blogger.com/u/2/#">America through Foreign Eyes</a>, and since I was asked to review it, I will keep this brief and let you click on that when it's ready for clicking. Castañeda knows the U.S. very well, and is in a good position to tell us something about ourselves. And he clearly likes the U.S. a lot.<br /><br /><div>The one point that the average American would do well to take from this book is the dangerous absurdity of exceptionalism. We think we're exceptional when we're not, often creating our beliefs by conveniently leaving out key facts. I mean, don't talk about democracy and equality unless you explicitly say you mean only whites. Castañeda, like so many others, is frustrated by these beliefs and sees them as an obstacle to Americans themselves.<br /><br />I will also say that Castañeda is optimistic about how we can change. He often seemed more optimistic than me. So I hope the outsider view is getting something I am missing.</div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="vertical-align:middle;border:0"/></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml">Subscribe in a reader</a></p></div>Greg Weekshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-90597652076424534622020-08-03T10:19:00.002-04:002020-08-03T10:19:16.303-04:00Rubio's Influence on Latin America Policy: Much Ado About Nothing?<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/03/marco-rubio-trump-latin-america-policy-390858">Interesting article in <i>Politico</i></a> about Marco Rubio's influence on Latin America policy, like the reference to him as the "virtual Secretary of State for Latin America." But something nagged me. Something seemed a but off about the influence. I mean, he's clearly influential, but...what? It finally crystallized as I thought about what Latin America policy would be like if Marco Rubio had no influence.<div><br /></div><div>The answer is barely different.</div><div><br /></div><div>He is viewed as having outsized influence on Venezuela and Cuba policy and keeping the administration centered on them. Makes sense. But in Venezuela, he's not getting what he wants, which is TPS and more interest in a military solution. He gets the oil embargo, I guess, but people like John Bolton and Mike Pompeo would've wanted that too. For Cuba, he's just getting establishment Republican policy, which would've been identical no matter what. Roll back Obama, love the embargo, no dialogue.</div><div><br /></div><div>He's seen as contributing to ignoring the rest of Latin America, especially Mexico. Well, OK, except that for Trump, U.S. policy toward Mexico is driven from within the White House and would've been like that no matter what. Remember how Kushner ignored the State Department and everybody else. Further, Trump doesn't care about the rest of Latin America, so I wonder whether anyone could've convinced him otherwise. Trump likes Rubio's obsession with Cuba and Venezuela because it's about his own re-election, and he doesn't care about Latin America policy not related to re-election. Do you really think that absent Rubio, Trump would care about South America? He insults Colombia, our strongest ally, all the time, and that's not because of Marco.</div><div><br /></div><div>This bring me to my next point. Rubio <i>has </i>been successful in getting his acolytes appointed to policy positions. <a href="https://theglobalamericans.org/2020/07/a-promotion-for-trumps-man-at-the-oas-what-carlos-trujillos-nomination-means-for-u-s-latin-american-relations/">I recently wrote about Carlos Trujillo</a> in <i>Global Americans</i>. For Rubio, "personnel is policy," according to his office, and he pursues it with petty abandon. But in the Trump administration, the adage isn't true. Trump doesn't care what State Department officials say. However, they do have an impact on bilateral relations on the ground, and so can easily worsen them by showing ignorance about regional issues. I don't know if that's been the case or not.</div><div><br /></div><div>This is all one big counterfactual. Would there be dramatic differences if Marco Rubio were not involved so deeply? He's got influence, but how much does it matter except for his ego and his cronies?</div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="vertical-align:middle;border:0"/></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml">Subscribe in a reader</a></p></div>Greg Weekshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-30885253964921626782020-07-31T09:59:00.002-04:002020-07-31T09:59:46.188-04:00Michael Kozak on Latin America PolicyActing Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs, Michael Kozak, <a href="https://www.state.gov/briefing-with-acting-assistant-secretary-for-western-hemisphere-affairs-ambassador-michael-kozak-on-the-administrations-efforts-to-promote-democracy-in-the-western-hemisphere/">talked on-the-record</a> about U.S. policy. Here is the gist:<div><br /></div><div>--The Bolivian coup government can delay the presidential election, no biggie.</div><div><br /></div><div>--The Cuba embargo is totally going to work. History tells us so!</div><div><br /></div><div>--Bolsonaro is, well, and Brazil, geez, they're tough, who the hell knows what's going on.</div><div><br /></div><div>--Nicolás Maduro won't face up to reality so we are kinda out of ideas.</div><div><br /></div><div>--Crap, you're going to keep asking me about Trump's comments and I sure as shit don't want to get into that, but some delays are OK and some aren't.</div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="vertical-align:middle;border:0"/></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml">Subscribe in a reader</a></p></div>Greg Weekshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-1053708578689470762020-07-30T08:41:00.000-04:002020-07-30T08:41:46.282-04:00Government Violence in Bolivia<a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/158666/bolivias-covid-19-election-nightmare-warning">Andrew Pagliarini writes in <i>The New Republic</i></a> about the political crisis in Bolivia. He links to <a href="http://hrp.law.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Black-November-English-Final_Accessible.pdf">the new report</a> by Harvard Law School’s International Human Rights Clinic and the University Network for Human Rights, which is really disturbing. The title is <i>They Shot Us Like Animals</i> so you immediately get the drift.<div><div></div><blockquote><div>According to witnesses, government repression since November 2019 has extended beyond killing protestors to quell criticism. The government has harassed, arbitrarily arrested, and tortured people that it perceives to be outspoken against the Áñez administration. Many Bolivians have found themselves facing charges or detention for vaguely defined crimes such as sedition, while others have been attacked in the streets by security forces and para-state actors. Certain visible groups are particularly susceptible to this persecution, including journalists, human rights defenders, and politicians. The result of this repression has been a pervasive climate of fear in many communities. </div></blockquote><div><br /></div><div>Pagliarini frames the postponement of the presidential election in terms of lithium. Like so many other times in Latin America, political crisis and U.S. interests centers on a primary good deemed to be essential. And we're all using lithium.</div><div><br /></div><div>Añez will hold on as long as she can, so international pressure is essential. Sadly, this will definitely not come from the Trump administration, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/americas/trump-sending-aid-mission-bolivia-ahead-election">which rushed to give</a> the new government aid. As usual there is no unified stance among Latin American countries or any regional leadership on it.</div><div></div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="vertical-align:middle;border:0"/></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml">Subscribe in a reader</a></p></div>Greg Weekshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-5172178398235494282020-07-29T14:21:00.000-04:002020-07-29T14:21:05.663-04:00Making Latin America PolicyI recommend <a href="https://theglobalamericans.org/2020/07/reflections-for-the-army-from-a-year-at-the-state-department/">Evan Ellis' post at Global Americans</a> on his recently completed year at the U.S. State Department Policy Planning Staff. He now returns to the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. It is a useful read both for its insider look and its discussion of "why does this matter?"<div><br /></div><div>Here is a key point:</div><div><blockquote>The problem is also compounded by the fundamental orientation of the State Department to tell our partners what we think and want, rather than listening to what they think and want. While seasoned diplomats know better in their personal interaction, I observed the balance of the work that came across my desk to be about “transmitting” rather than “receiving.” Every high-level meeting involves the preparation of “talking points” seeking to advance an agenda, too seldom did they include questions about what our partners thought or needed.</blockquote><div>This echoes <a href="http://weeksnotice.blogspot.com/2018/10/lars-schoultzs-in-their-own-best.html">Lars Schoultz's <i>In Their Own Best Interest</i></a>, where he questions all "uplifting" aid, the effects of which are never measured. We can check boxes on delivery and execution, but not on whether it actually makes lives better. Making lives better requires starting with what our partners actually want. This has often been true, but is accentuated in the Trump era.</div><div><blockquote>In my own work, I did not see substantial evidence that the strategy and policy documents of each organization are actively used as guides to action by the other, beyond superficial references to fundamental documents such as the National Security Strategy. I also witnessed and participated in the drafting of some interagency documents, but beyond the somewhat useful exercise of meeting and coordinating about their wording, I did not perceive that the result meaningfully impacted the direction of either state or the other U.S. government entities involved.</blockquote><div>This is clearly a Trump administration problem, though past administrations were clearly not immune. Unlike the past, though, the essential problem now is that policy is made by tweet, with government agencies scrambling to interpret it just like the rest of us. How do you feel like you're doing something meaningful when the president ignores you?</div></div></div><div><br /></div><div>I appreciate these kinds of perspectives. As a side note, as he does not address it, I know a number of people who have moved from academia to policy making and back, and I know their view of of the relevance and accuracy of academic work changed dramatically. I have not felt great temptation to try the policy making world myself, even as I recognize that even in small doses it would make us better analysts.</div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="vertical-align:middle;border:0"/></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml">Subscribe in a reader</a></p></div>Greg Weekshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-7287287179033927292020-07-28T16:52:00.001-04:002020-07-28T16:52:52.789-04:00Kirk Tyvela's The Dictator DilemmaI read Kirk Tyvela's <i>The Dictator Dilemma: The United States and Paraguay in the Cold War </i>am writing a review for <i>The Latin Americanist</i>. I really liked it.<div><blockquote>The “dictator dilemma” was often at the core of U.S. policy toward Latin America during the Cold War. U.S. policy makers professed commitment to democracy, yet commonly supported pro-U.S. dictatorships to advance U.S. security interests. The dilemma played out clearly in Paraguay, where dictator Alfredo Stroessner ruled by force and won elections with around 90% of the vote from 1954 to 1989. Kirk Tyvela’s book is a deeply researched and compelling addition to the literature on U.S.-Latin American relations.</blockquote><div>You'll have to wait until later in the year to read the rest. But it's a great read.</div><div><br /></div><div>One thing I liked in particular was his attention to Paraguayan sources. He used Paraguayan archives but only to the extent that they exist, which is minimal. That is the big challenges for future scholars, which will require close consultation with local experts of whatever country (and hopefully publishing collaboration as well). Are there untapped primary sources? The literature on U.S.-Latin American relations cries out for it.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="vertical-align:middle;border:0"/></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml">Subscribe in a reader</a></p></div>Greg Weekshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-83014259878063050942020-07-28T09:45:00.000-04:002020-07-28T09:45:52.029-04:00What Biden Policy Toward Latin America Might Look Like<a href="http://weeksnotice.blogspot.com/2020/07/latin-america-in-2020-democratic.html">A few days ago I wrote</a> about the Latin America part of the Democratic Party's platform. Now Juan Gonzalez, who as an Deputy Assistant Secretary of State was part of Latin America policy under Obama, <a href="https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/joe-biden-and-the-future-of-the-americas/">writes in <i>Americas Quarterly</i></a> about what a Biden administration policy could look like.<div><br /></div><div>The main thing I like about it is that he brings Mexico front and center, whereas the platform actually doesn't even mention it. Mexico is our most important Latin American partner by far, and must be part of any discussion of trade, immigration and/or Central America. There is a lot of work to be done, and we need Mexico's help to do it.</div><div><br /></div><div>I also like that Colombia gets more attention, because the peace process needs support, and as he points out, we need to get beyond narcotization. He mentions helping with the exodus of Venezuelans, but I would also like the U.S. to be more publicly mindful of displaced Colombians as well.</div><div><br /></div><div>There is more, on Brazil, the Caribbean, climate, multilateral response to Covid-19, and even the simple task of not being a model of corruption. Just that would be nice.</div><div><blockquote>The great visibility of the United States makes us an example all over the world, for better or for worse. When we live up to our ideals as a nation, it bolsters civic-minded leaders elsewhere. But when our leaders deny facts and model corrupt behavior, it encourages actors who are anathema to our hemisphere’s democratic progress and social advancement. The task of building back better requires us to find common cause in our shared prosperity, a renewed partnership on climate change, a resolve to guarantee the security of our citizens, and a sense of urgency toward realizing a shared vision of a hemisphere that is secure, middle class, and democratic.</blockquote></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="vertical-align:middle;border:0"/></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml">Subscribe in a reader</a></p></div>Greg Weekshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-85856258051142429272020-07-27T11:40:00.003-04:002020-07-27T15:45:06.182-04:00Venezuelan Healthcare and Covid-19This morning, Chris Sabatini at Chatham House <a href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/event/how-prepared-venezuela-s-healthcare-system-covid-19">moderated a Zoom panel entitled</a>, "How Prepared is Venezuela's Healthcare System for Covid-19." The participants were:<div><br /></div><div><div>José Miguel Vivanco, Executive Director, Americas Division, Human Rights Watch</div><div>Tamara Taraciuk Broner, Acting Deputy Director, Americas Division, Human Rights Watch</div><div>Dr Kathleen Page, Associate Professor of Medicine, John Hopkins University</div></div><div><br /></div><div>The answer to the panel's title question is, as anyone paying even passing attention would accurately guess, emphatically no. There is no good news. There is no silver lining. A massively corrupt and uncaring dictatorship is letting people die and lying about everything. Doctors are washing their hands from the drips of air-conditioning units before doing surgery. Many hospitals don't have potable water. Aid is tricky and the gasoline shortage makes it hard to reach the interior of the country. We have no idea how many people have the virus and how many people have died from it. Repression makes it hard to find out anything. BTW, I had never heard the phrase "verbal autopsy" before. That's where we are in terms of data collection, down to trying to get information on demand for funeral homes, but even then people are afraid to talk openly. It's an onslaught of bad, but Covid-19 has distracted the world from the disaster.</div><div><br /></div><div>What can the international community do? We need a truly multilateral effort with a common position. José Miguel Vivanco lamented the Trump's administration embrace of militaristic rhetoric, which makes things worse. The UN is barely paying attention.</div><div><br /></div><div>John Hopkins worked with Human Rights Watch before Covid-19, and <a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2019/04/04/venezuelas-humanitarian-emergency/large-scale-un-response-needed-address-health">already last year warned</a> that Venezuela was in a dire healthcare crisis.</div><div><br /></div><div>Anyway, it was a really interesting discussion, but one that left me sad and frustrated.</div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="vertical-align:middle;border:0"/></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml">Subscribe in a reader</a></p></div>Greg Weekshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-75599726041003943362020-07-27T07:32:00.000-04:002020-07-27T07:32:32.866-04:00Nicaraguans Want Change and Don't Thinks It's Too Likely<a href="https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/dashboard/hospitalizations">Manuel Orozco directed a survey</a> in Nicaragua for the Inter-American Dialogue. The results show deep distrust that has developed over years of corrupt government, from Daniel Ortega of course but also the right. Nicaraguans want free elections and they also want good choices, and they don't see either happening.<div><br /></div><div>It would be logical to assume that Nicaraguans would lay the blame for the crisis--political, economic, public health, etc.--on Daniel Ortega. But that's only partially true. This graph caught my attention the most:</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfxPKVv3iEuRQ4_nme06z7GjYTztwIee2HT1xe9L7fsoaIp5oHc9hCHN8SmmtcPOyVhdkd9T-aLuf3zICZXO-Zgnf6lmaVvY9qA6YLuKrpVMDVW_QRmtQ4I6PPGMgRjvrKXFAO/s837/Screenshot+%252898%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="610" data-original-width="837" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfxPKVv3iEuRQ4_nme06z7GjYTztwIee2HT1xe9L7fsoaIp5oHc9hCHN8SmmtcPOyVhdkd9T-aLuf3zICZXO-Zgnf6lmaVvY9qA6YLuKrpVMDVW_QRmtQ4I6PPGMgRjvrKXFAO/s320/Screenshot+%252898%2529.png" width="320" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Several of these questions get at the repression and ineptness off the government, but a lot of people see this as just another example of Sandinista/right political conflict, which has dominated the country for over 40 years. Further, check out the sizable chunk of people who believe the crisis stems from the U.S. and the right.</div><div><br /></div><div>Who do Nicaraguans want to vote for? They don't seem to see good options. They don't identify with the political parties and a majority doesn't even identify as "pro-government" or "pro-opposition." If the election were held today, a large majority either doesn't know or would not choose from any candidate (which they could write in). They think there will be fraud and see international observers as important.</div><div><br /></div><div>What can we take away from this?</div><div><br /></div><div>--Lack of popular interest in the opposition and an alternate leader works very much to Ortega's favor.</div><div>--International observers are critical for the legitimacy of any election. The next presidential election <a href="https://www.startribune.com/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-for-presidential-election/571766662/">is now scheduled</a> for November 2021.</div><div>--Ortega's inept response to Covid-19 is truly devastating. No one believes him <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/22/americas/nicaragua-covid-19-ortega-intl/index.html">when he says</a> it's barely affecting the country.</div><div>--There is support for sanctions, but they should stay very focused on the Ortega clique.</div><div>--as with Venezuela, the situation keeps getting worse with no real solution in sight.</div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="vertical-align:middle;border:0"/></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml">Subscribe in a reader</a></p></div>Greg Weekshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-47753520585698447262020-07-24T07:16:00.001-04:002020-07-24T07:16:27.413-04:00MLB (Weakly) Acknowledges Injustice in VenezuelaLast night was opening night for Major League Baseball, a huge thing for all of us baseball fans. The issue of social justice was apparent, down to the highly visible "BLM" stenciled on the pitching mound. Before the game, the players knelt and held a long, black tapestry, the brainchild of Phillies star Andrew McCutchen. This sort of display is radical for baseball.<div><br /></div><div>What I didn't know is that <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29527461/phils-andrew-mccutchen-unites-yanks-nats-pregame-ceremony-acknowledging-injustice">McCutchen meant it as a general statement</a> about injustice, and specifically included Venezuela and the Dominican Republic.</div><div><blockquote>"This is a moment for us to honor each other, to honor the things that we're going through," he said. "With the social injustices we're going through in this country, with the things that exist outside our nation -- places like Venezuela, the Dominican Republic. To honor that and show that we honor each other, that we have each other's back, that we're going to fight for each other. And the way we do that is by collectively being together as one. This is a representation of that."</blockquote><div>I can't find anything to suggest that McCutchen has talked about Venezuela before, or even what exactly he's referring to in the DR. It might be as simple as the fact that he has teammates from there. In terms of injustice, he certainly needs to add Cuba (I don't think there are any Cubans on the 40 man roster for the Phillies, which might account for the omission).</div><div><br /></div><div>The acknowledgment, therefore, is pretty weak, to the point that hardly anyone is aware. I wish players, announcers, and writers would give it some more attention. Baseball is an international game, and players from other countries face problems that are different but sometimes no less dire.</div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="vertical-align:middle;border:0"/></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml">Subscribe in a reader</a></p></div>Greg Weekshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21674624.post-11864444751573172552020-07-23T18:23:00.002-04:002020-07-23T18:23:51.704-04:00Latin America in the 2020 Democratic Platform<div></div><div><a href="https://mcusercontent.com/b575b9e5364b5673b6f9df3f1/files/8d516a5c-9af5-4d7a-ab02-d5aaff690faa/2020_07_21_DRAFT_Democratic_Party_Platform.01.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1l-9yIXgUtKldpDjaVQhcVotlKjLj5-WJlKUvYuqVsc19tOX7flrSRWPU">Here is a link</a> to the latest draft of the Democratic Party Platform. <a href="https://theglobalamericans.org/2016/07/attitude-platitudes-democratic-partys-platform-latin-america/">Here is what I wrote about 2016</a> in <i>Global Americans</i>. The party is not paying much attention to Latin America, either then or now. Back then, I wrote that countries were just jumbled together. In 2020 they solved that problems by not mentioning countries at all. Mexico is not mentioned at all, even in the discussion of USMCA. </div><div><br /></div><div>I know, I know, the platform is just a basic document of values, with a lot of cooks making the soup. But as I noted last year, is it so hard to say we support the Colombia peace process and anti-corruption efforts in Central America, we value Mexico for everything, and the like?</div><div><br /></div><div>Below is the "Americas" section:</div><blockquote><div>Democrats believe the Western Hemisphere is America’s strategic home base—a region bound together by common values, history, and vision of a more prosperous, democratic, and secure future. When the United States hosts the region’s leaders at next year’s Summit of the Americas—the first to be held here since the 1994 inaugural meeting in Miami—we will turn the page on the Trump Administration’s denigration and extortion of our neighbors, and we will chart a new era of cooperation based on partnership and shared responsibility for the region we all call home. </div></blockquote><div></div><div>"Denigration and extortion." Strong, but accurate. I really don't like "strategic home base," which is militarist and imperialist. It's not our home--it's <i>their</i> home.</div><div><div></div><blockquote><div>Democrats will reaffirm the importance of North America to U.S. global economic</div><div>competitiveness. We will ensure the USMCA lives up to its commitment to create prosperity for American workers, and we will strictly enforce compliance with its labor and environmental provisions. We will reinvigorate and build upon the North American Plan for Animal and Pandemic Influenza launched under the Obama-Biden Administration and work with our partners to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, which has caused the biggest economic decline in history across Latin America and the Caribbean. </div></blockquote><div>This is a funny paragraph, beginning with acknowledging Trump's passage of a new bill, then pivoting to an Obama policy as counterweight. The labor and worker language <a href="https://theglobalamericans.org/2016/07/attitude-platitudes-democratic-partys-platform-latin-america/">is like 2016</a>, which also reflected Bernie Sanders' influence, but I feel like the wording is stronger now. </div></div><div><div></div></div><blockquote><div><div>Rather than coerce our neighbors into supporting cruel migration policies, we will work with our regional and international partners to address the root causes of migration—violence and insecurity, weak rule of law, lack of educational and economic opportunity, pervasive corruption, and environmental degradation. Rather than encourage climate denial and environmental devastation, we will rally the world to protect the Amazon from deforestation, protect Indigenous peoples, and help vulnerable nations in the Caribbean and Central America adapt to the impacts of climate change. And rather than imitate populist demagogues, we will link arms with our neighbors to realize our shared aspirations for the region’s future. </div></div><div></div></blockquote><div>This is new and good. In 2016, Democrats framed immigration largely in domestic terms. Viewing it in structural terms, including climate, is a reality-based view, and very necessary.</div><div><div></div><blockquote><div>We will reject President Trump’s failed Venezuela policy, which has only served to entrench Nicolás Maduro’s dictatorial regime and exacerbate a human rights and humanitarian crisis. To rise to the occasion of the world’s worst refugee crisis and worst humanitarian crisis outside a warzone in decades, the United States will mobilize its partners across the region and around the world to meet the urgent needs of the people of Venezuela, and grant Temporary Protected Status to Venezuelans in the United States. Democrats believe that the best opportunity to rescue Venezuela’s democracy is through smart pressure and effective diplomacy, not empty, bellicose threats untethered to realistic policy goals and motivated by domestic partisan objectives. </div></blockquote><div></div></div><div>There are no specifics and Biden has never had any beyond doing mostly what Trump is doing without the empty threats. TPS is clearly critical, so a good step forward and he really needs to contrast himself in Florida on that issue.</div><div><div></div><blockquote><div>Democrats will also move swiftly to reverse Trump Administration policies that have</div><div>undermined U.S. national interests and harmed the Cuban people and their families in the United States, including its efforts to curtail travel and remittances. Rather than strengthening the regime, we will promote human rights and people-to-people exchanges, and empower the Cuban people to write their own future. </div></blockquote><div></div></div><div>This is an easy one. Obama started it, and Biden will get back to that point and move forward again.</div><div class="blogger-post-footer"><p><a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml"><img src="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/images/pub/feed-icon32x32.png" alt="" style="vertical-align:middle;border:0"/></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/weeksnotice" rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml">Subscribe in a reader</a></p></div>Greg Weekshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15765114859595124082noreply@blogger.com0