Developments in Venezuela
I’ve been asked my opinion about all the news in Venezuela. The big news, of course, was President Chávez’s announcement that telecommunications and electricity would be nationalized. Despite the NYT’s emphasis on investor concerns, we have to wait and see—I think investors are perfectly willing to keep bringing their money as long as the government ensures some profit (e.g. in Bolivia). Let’s see how much of the profit Chávez takes for himself, not to mention what kind of compensation he offers.
Having said that, though, nationalization does not tend to produce the desired results because all too often the businesses become bloated, corrupt, politicized and unaccountable. I am not sure how to avoid that. No one in Venezuelan history has done so.
On the political side, Chávez says he’s a Trotskyist, without explaining how he interprets that. When you hear Trotsky, you might think immediately of ice pick to the head. Other than that, I guess Chávez means that socialism in Venezuela requires the promotion of socialism abroad, without cooperating with capitalists. Again, let’s see—so far, he has talked socialism while happily promoting capitalist relationships.
He says he wants to change the “geometry of power.” What does this mean? Is it different from the algebra of power? I guess it is an indirect way of saying he wants to change “the ways in which other people besides me have power.” He wants to bypass the legislature with decree power, allow himself permanent re-election, and eliminate the independence of the Central Bank. He already refused to renew the license of a TV station he considered “counter-revolutionary.” I consider myself an open-minded person, but for the life of me I can’t see how this leads to anything but autocracy. He uses Fidel’s language of “the people” but, like Fidel, conflates himself with the people.
The general plan of state control over the economy combined with autocracy has not been a successful combination in Latin American history, or elsewhere for that matter. I don’t see how this will turn out any different.
4 comments:
Back when CANTV was still nationalized there was a joke when someone asked for your phone number you would say "cinco cinco cinco - sin corriente". even with bribing people you often had to wait 1-2 years to get a phone line. Even when you had one the service was terrible no dial tone or your conversation being crossed with another. Oh those were the days (early 90's). It will be interesting to see if Chavez nationalizes the other phone companies since a nationalized CANTV will not be able to compete with them, and would likely take the majority share from CANTV.
The only nationalized company that was actually efficient and well run was PDVSA.
BTW, I'm a little surprised to see so much coverage on this issue and not the verbal assualt Chavez gave Insulza calling him a "pendejo, desde la p hasta la o". Sadely, the OAS is reather powerless in my opinion. Not sure what your take is on the OAS and any potential way they can deal with Venezuela.
Interesting question--I'll write something a little later.
Too bad that Henry Kissinger is retired. The world could use a little Kissinger diplomacy applied in Venezuela right about now. Sadly, the Bush administration's stature in Latin America and the rest of the world (not to mention domestically) renders the USA powerless to do much of anything except sit back and watch Venezuela's economy deteriorate into an extreme left Socialist society. I would not expect an embargo either, given how that strategy has failed miserably in Cuba for 50 years and counting. Lastly, Chavez seems to have firm control of the military as well, so a military coup is not likely either. How will this story end?
As Kissinger's strategy was to support military dictatorships and encourage murder, I'm not so sure we want him back.
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