Former Presidents of Peru

There are six five living former presidents of Peru.

1. Francisco Morales Bermúdez was sentenced by a court in Rome for deaths related to Operation Condor. He is almost 100 and therefore not imprisoned.

2. Alan García just shot himself in the head today as police were coming to arrest him for corruption charges in the Odebrecht case. Update: he died of his self-inflicted wound.

3. After being pardoned under fishy circumstances, Alberto Fujimori was put back in jail late last year for human rights abuses during his dictatorship.

4. Alejandro Toledo is in exile in the United States, fleeing Odebrecht-related charges. He was arrested last month in California for public drunkenness.

5. Ollanta Humala is facing Odebrecht charges and was imprisoned in 2017 and 2018 while awaiting trial. The case is ongoing.

6. Pedro Pablo Kuczynski is in jail for Odebrecht charges and just today was hospitalized for high blood pressure.

Two escaping accountability, three detained, and one on trial.

No surprise, then, if you look at the 2018 Latinobarómetro survey and see that only 43% of Peruvians favor democracy (versus authoritarianism or indifference). Satisfaction with democracy is only 11%, second lowest to Latin America (Brazil at 9%) has that honor.

There is something successful about former presidents being arrested and put on trial--it can mean judicial institutions are functioning even at the highest levels. The problem, however, is when it doesn't stop. Sure, maybe the courts will work, but you want presidents who don't face corruption charges in the first place. All eyes on you, Martín Vizcarra.

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Dissident FARC

Via Colombia Reports: Ecuador says it found a dissident FARC camp in its territory near the Colombian border, a few days after Ecuadorian soldiers were attacked.

The FARC dissidents have tried to maintain control over criminal rackets like drug trafficking that were abandoned by their parent organization during the demobilization.
 The groups are believed to be supported by Mexican and Ecuadorean organized crime groups that buy cocaine from the rogue guerrillas.

This is a familiar story, as its already been told in Peru with the Shining Path. Once an actual ideological guerrilla group, after its military defeat and the capture of Abimael Guzmán, in 2015 the U.S. Treasury Department labeled it a "criminal narco-terrorist organization." Notice that the word "Marxist" isn't in there.

Unfortunately, it is extraordinarily difficult to destroy such groups, the same way its hard to destroy Mexican drug trafficking organizations. They are well-funded, well-armed, and the flow of drug money is never-ending. But an increased state presence in Colombia will help if they can pull it off, and greater Colombia-Ecuador cooperation is possible now that Rafael Correa is no longer president. It is a major border problem and cannot be dealt with by just one side.

For more on Colombia's implementation of the peace deal, check out the podcast I recently recorded with Adam Isacson.

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Peru is Tough on Presidents

Peruvian journalist Simeon Tegel has an article at Americas Quarterly about how Peruvian presidents have the political deck stacked against them. I've written numerous times about how unpopular Peruvian presidents always seem to be.

Tegel points to institutional design. In particular, Peru has a hybrid presidential/parliamentary system with a dual executive, which he argues "serves both to institutionalize conflict and prevent fresh voices with public backing from entering the political arena." Congress has outsized power that has consistently crippled the president. That system is also why PPK pardoned Alberto Fujimori.

Further, Peru has a unicameral legislature, which when combined with high threshold for parties to even register, has fostered legislative dominance in many ways. Thinking again of PPK, it meant that Congress could use impeachment as extortion. And good luck getting electoral reform through that body.

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Should Kuczynski Resign?

According to a GfK poll, 55% of Peruvians think Pedro Pablo Kuczynski should resign, 43% do not think so, and 2% do not know. He has the least support in rural areas and among the poor. Right now he faces a disapproval rating of 82% and has only 15% approval.

His corruption scandal, plus the infamous pardon of Alberto Fujimori, seem to be fatal blows to this presidency. If you're wondering, presidential terms in Peru are five years and PPK took office in July 2016. In other words, lame duck status is kicking in awfully early and he will continue to face impeachment pushes from Congress.

Presidents seem always to be unpopular in Peru. Back in 2010 Alan García blamed it on Peruvians being sad. There really is no precedent in the country for bouncing back.

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PPK's Narrow Escape

Boz has a rundown on Pedro Pablo Kuczynski's narrow escape from impeachment, including how the disagreements between two Fujimoris are driving this, and indeed how it's even linked to their father. Alberto Fujimori resigned 17 years ago but still drives Peruvian politics.

PPK was elected in June 2016. In January 2017 I noted the following:

Peruvian President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski's honeymoon may be ending. His approval has dropped sharply down to 35%. I had thought he was one of the more interesting new regional voices in Latin America, and right now he's one of the presidents vocally supporting Mexico against Donald Trump, and from the right no less.
 But Peru is tough on presidents--approval is consistently low. You could quite reasonable argue that problems at home would make it natural for PPK to focus more of his attention abroad. But that can only go so far. We've already seen how domestic problems in Brazil and Venezuela greater shrunk their international presence.

Less than a year later and he's a hair's breadth from being forced out, with low approval ratings and corruption investigation going on as well. Can PPK keep up his high profile international presence? The U.S. is nowhere to be seen. Brazil is nowhere to be seen. He was filling a regional gap and I am not sure who else will step forward.

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Podcast Episode 41: Mining Protests in Latin America

In Episode 41 of Understanding Latin American Politics: The Podcast I talk with Michelle Bonner, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Victoria. She studies democratization and human rights in Latin America. Going from an article she recently published in Latin American Research Review we discuss the state response to mining protests. How does the ideology of the government matter? What is "dialogue"? What does this tell us about democracy and repression in Latin America?

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PPK's Venezuela Idea

Pedro Pablo Kuczynski continues his role as regional leader by calling for a multilateral arbitration group that would consist of 2-3 "democratic countries" and 2-3 countries of Venezuela's choice (I am not sure whether there is supposed to be an implication that such countries are not democratic; I hope not. Some of it might be selective quotation). The group would elect a president.

There are plenty of potential logistical questions (e.g. who would choose the former group) but this is a solid idea. The broad multilateral context is large and prone to breaking down more easily. There is a disappointing lack of urgency in Latin America about the Venezuela crisis. This solution perhaps has the possibility of getting support from Bolivia and Ecuador, which have talked vaguely of "dialogue" without specifics. Evo Morales is all in for Nicolás Maduro but in fact we don't yet know if Lenín Moreno will follow the same lead as Rafael Correa. Looking at Ecuadorian press, it seems corruption is dominating the news so perhaps that is also dominating Moreno's time.

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PPK Talks Deportation

Now here's a first. A Latin American leader talked favorably with Donald Trump about deportation.

Peruvian President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski talked on the phone with Trump and asked him to deport former president Alejandro Toledo, who is implicated in the Odebrecht scandal. Will Trump do it? He should. The U.S. has long been a cozy place for former Latin American presidents facing accusations at home.

Apparently the two also talked about Venezuela, but I found it interesting that the White House referred to it as "humanitarian," which at least suggests that Trump is not planning on getting into the political side of it.

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PPK Getting Less Popular

Peruvian President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski's honeymoon may be ending. His approval has dropped sharply down to 35%. I had thought he was one of the more interesting new regional voices in Latin America, and right now he's one of the presidents vocally supporting Mexico against Donald Trump, and from the right no less.

But Peru is tough on presidents--approval is consistently low. You could quite reasonable argue that problems at home would make it natural for PPK to focus more of his attention abroad. But that can only go so far. We've already seen how domestic problems in Brazil and Venezuela greater shrunk their international presence.

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PPK in the US Media

The Washington Post has an interview with Peruvian President Pedro Pablo Kucznyski. These days he's one of the few Latin American leaders speaking out on a regular basis--too many others seem too embattled to do so. This means he's getting more of a voice in the U.S. than a Peruvian president otherwise might have. I don't have any idea whether he's influential in the region or not (or how representative his views are).

Some good quotes:

On Trump: "If they think that Latin America is just a bunch of guys who climb walls to get illegal work, then it is not going to go well. I hope they go past that."

On Maduro: "Maduro is afraid that if he yields, they will hang him from a lamppost, so he wants to stick with it."

On China: "I don’t love TPP so much. China is our biggest customer. So how can we support something that excludes them?"

On mine protests in Peru: "I’m not like past presidents. None of them actually went to talk to the miners."

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PPK Likely Winner in Peru (Updated)

As of now, Peru's Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales has counted 89.5% of the vote, giving 50.52% to Pedro Pablo Kuczynski and 49.48, with a difference of just 164,417 votes between them. Participation was 82.5%, which is obviously quite high. As Otto notes, this could switch but it's very unlikely. He made a big comeback.

Assuming this holds, a few quick thoughts:

First, Keiko Fujimori's party has 73 of 130 seats in the unicameral Congress (John Carey and Steven Levitsky explain how the electoral system was responsible for the majority) so PPK cannot just come in and fulfill promises.

Second, Peruvians don't like their presidents, who struggle to get approval ratings above the 20s (Peruvians don't like political parties much either). It's important to remember that national GDP numbers don't tell you much about how Peruvians feel. In fact, sources of GDP growth like mining are also sources of major civil conflict. So PPK faces a major uphill battle immediately.

Third, I have to figure this will get lumped into the "decline of the pink tide" thing. But Peru has never fit that well--Ollanta Humala wasn't the leftist he was expected to be.

Update at noon: with 92.5% counted, the lead is tighter. PPK at 50.32%, Fujimori at 49.68%. The difference is 103,383 votes.

Update on 6/7/16 at 8:15 am: with 96.7% of the votes counted, it is even tighter. PPK is at 50.15% and Fujimori is at 49.85%. Now the vote difference is just 50,866. It ain't over 'til it's over.

Update on 6/8/16 at 8: 20 am: now we're at 99.37%. PPK holds at 50.15% and Fujimori at 49.85%. The vote difference also holds at 50,102. As the L.A. Times notes:

About half the remaining votes come from rural areas where Fujimori enjoys much support, while many of the rest are from foreign countries where Kuczynski is thought to have an advantage among expatriates. Analysts said Tuesday they thought Fujimori would collect a majority of remaining votes but possibly not enough to overtake her opponent.  

For Fujimori to achieve a tie, she would have to have 73% of the remaining votes. Given where the remaining votes [to be counted] are coming from, she should be able to make up some ground, but just a little,” said Ivan La Negra, a  political science professor at Catholic University in Lima. 

Down to the wire, probably tomorrow.

Update on 6/9/16 at 9:40 am. We're at 99.99% and PPK is 50.12% with Fujimori at 49.89%. The vote difference is 39,201, which is amazingly tiny. The ONPE says it will have a final result this weekend. You have to imagine there will disputes about votes, but for now the candidates have mostly been silent as everyone waits.

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Peruvian Presidential Second Round

Hari Seshasayee has a good rundown on the upcoming presidential second round in Peru on June 5.

This second round of elections has been uniquely Peruvian. It is unlike most election scenarios we are familiar with: it is not between two political parties (like in the US), two political ideologies (left versus right), two dynasties (like in Bangladesh), nor is it one-sided. This election is between ‘Fujimorismo,’ the ideology espoused by jailed ex-president Alberto Fujimori, and anti-Fujimorismo, a formless mishmash of millions of Peruvians with varying degrees of opposition to Fujimorismo.

The right wins no matter the outcome, but the question is whether it is the Fujimorismo right. Keiko is ahead in polls, but as he notes we have to be careful about making predictions.

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Fujimori Ceiling in Peru

The latest results in Peru have Keiko Fujimori at 39.4%, Pedro Pablo Kuczynksi at 24%, and Veronika Mendoza at 16.7%. Turnout was 84%. The runoff is on June 5. The big question is locating what you might call the "Fujimori ceiling." In other words, what is the maximum that Fujimori can expect to gain in a second round?

What gets less attention is the fact that Kenji Fujimori, Keiko's brother, who may well become the next President of the Congress because Fujimoristas will likely have a majority. It looks like he received the highest number of votes of any member of Congress, and the second highest since Keiko won in 2006. The Fujimori ceiling could be pretty high.

Where will the left go? This is now a firmly conservative race. Voters who chose Mendoza will therefore have an unpalatable choice, and so their choice depends on how much they hate the Fujimori name. Otherwise they may be sorely tempted to spoil their ballot in protest. 15% of all presidential ballots were either blank or null, and almost 30% in congressional ballots. On Friday I wrote about the "I Hate You All" votes. The 15% was just about exactly the margin of victory between Fujimori and Kuczynksi. Given the choice between two conservative candidates, will they just spoil their ballot again? We'll have to see how strong the anyone-but-Fujimori vote is.

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The "I Hate You All" Vote in Peru

Mollie Cohen, a Ph.D. student at Vanderbilt, writes at AmericasBarometer about invalid voting in Peru and what that means for the upcoming presidential election. The upshot is that Peruvians do not trust political parties, so have the second highest (to Bolivia) rate of invalid voting, referring to intentional spoiling of ballots.

Since 1993, the number of invalid votes has been larger than the margin of victory between first and second place candidates in nearly 40% of all first‐round Latin American presidential elections. In other words, in more than a third of presidential elections, the second place candidate could have won the presidency had he or she captured these invalid votes.

Peru has a two round system so this is significant. The "I hate you all" vote could make the difference, but obviously chooses not to.

The most current Ipsos poll has Keiko Fujimori at 40.8% with no one else over 20%. She needs a majority to win in a first round. A major question is whether invalid votes in the first round remain so in the second. Do people spoil votes knowing the outcome will require a second election, then vote for real the second time? Or, do haters keep hating?

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The Endless War of the Pacific

I'm quoted in this Bloomberg story on the latest Chile-Peru flap. I've blogged about this so many times (here's one from seven years ago). What's really left to say? This particular dispute seems unrelated to resources--it's nationalism and symbolism. And this:

As international relations fray, the dispute may bolster the popularity of both nations’ leaders, which have touched record lows in recent months. 

Humala had 18 percent approval in a Datum Internacional poll published Monday. Chilean President Michelle Bachelet had 29 percent approval in a survey by Adimark GfK published Nov. 4

The War of the Pacific just won't end! And there's nothing like a good border dispute to boost your approval ratings.

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Presidential Election in Peru Next Year

Cynthia McClintock takes a look at the April 2016 presidential election in Peru. Ollanta Humala cannot run again and fortunately is not trying to change the constitution to allow it. Her main take is that voters seem to be leaning to the right but there is a lot of time left. Whether or not a candidate is involved in corruption scandals will mean a lot, and potentially open the door to a surprise candidate.

The good: Otto Pérez Molina's resignation and Dilma Rousseff's troubles, among other things, have focused people on corruption, which is a step toward making politicians more accountable. Making candidates accountable before they're elected is good for everyone.

The not so good: when the established parties are so strongly connected to corruption, you run the risk of encouraging outsider candidates with little experience, which poses risks but also further undermines the party system. That was Ollanta Humala. That is also Jimmy Morales. The trick is creating new parties with real infrastructure that are not so corrupt. And that's quite a trick.

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Exporting Obesity to Latin America

Has anyone coined the term "Calorie Imperialism"? If not, I just did. The latest example is Krispy Kreme's announcement that it was expanding in Latin America, specifically to Bolivia and Peru.

“We think the Krispy Kreme brand and doughnuts will be hits in Bolivia, as we tap into the culture of sharing that is prevalent throughout the country,”

Seriously? Krispy Kreme will just fit right in with traditional indigenous culture.

Obesity is a real problem in Latin America. U.S. companies, having given Americans what they want, which has included bulging waistlines, are eagerly seeking to do the same abroad. And as in the U.S. they often have an enthusiastic audience.

It's noteworthy too that this is true in Bolivia, generally held up by leftists as revolutionary. But even there capitalism is working smoothly, so intellectuals can talk discuss Marx over a few glazed donuts.

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The Disaster of Coca Eradication

Great AP story on the serious problems with coca eradication in Peru. The basic story is decades old--coca is a livelihood and you court disaster if you don't first create a legal alternative to growing it. Crop substitution is great in theory, but very tricky in practice:

Duran and her husband planted bananas after a government crew uprooted their coca crop for the first time in 2013. 

But when the fruit ripened, the river connecting them with the nearest market town was dry and they trekked for five hours with 100 bananas between them. 

Duran said the bananas turned out to be worth just $1 at market. 

The family went back to planting coca, which brings them a little less than $1,000 at harvest every four months. 

"Nobody buys anything but coca," she said.

Compare that to this article written 15 years ago.

Last week, some 35,000 Peruvian coca growers protested the government’s eradication campaign by blockading major highways. They called for an end to eradication until the government provides economic incentives for alternative crops. The low market value of alternative crops and the difficulty in getting them to markets has resulted in a desperate struggle for survival for many farmers forced to abandon coca cultivation.

Doesn't matter if it's Alberto Fujimori or Ollanta Humala--crop eradication has not worked. You trumpet how much coca you've destroyed and ignore the human cost.

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Hezbollah in Peru

There is a report that a Hezbollah agent was arrested in Lima and Mossad believes he was going to carry out an attack on Peruvian Jews. I am scratching my head about this because the Jewish population in Peru is tiny, only a few thousand in the entire country. The article suggests that maybe Israeli backpackers would be targets.

Here is the Interior Ministry's statement.

There is a lot we don't know here, but I keep wondering why Hezbollah would make this effort in a country that from a political perspective has little to no symbolic or strategic value.

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Pacific Alliancing

Michelle Bachelet, Juan Manuel Santos, Enrique Peña Nieto, and Ollanta Humala have a joint op-ed about the Pacific Alliance. Its basic thrust is that the free movement of goods and people will improve welfare.

One interesting point to consider is that both Bachelet and Humala were bashed when they took office for being leftists (remarkably, this was true even just recently for Bachelet). Santos, meanwhile, is center-right but bashed by his predecessor for, among other things, being willing to reach out to the left. So all the easy ideological labels don't work too well.

This is also notable for the "losing Latin America" argument I've periodically tried to counter. A majority of Latin American countries are market-oriented, which has consistently been a U.S. policy goal. Like it or not, it's reality. The Pacific Alliance is a good example of how Latin American countries can actually come together in pursuit of something the U.S. favors but is not directing. That's hardly "losing." It just means that leading is not synonymous with directing.

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