Monday, April 11, 2016

Fujimori Ceiling in Peru

The latest results in Peru have Keiko Fujimori at 39.4%, Pedro Pablo Kuczynksi at 24%, and Veronika Mendoza at 16.7%. Turnout was 84%. The runoff is on June 5. The big question is locating what you might call the "Fujimori ceiling." In other words, what is the maximum that Fujimori can expect to gain in a second round?

What gets less attention is the fact that Kenji Fujimori, Keiko's brother, who may well become the next President of the Congress because Fujimoristas will likely have a majority. It looks like he received the highest number of votes of any member of Congress, and the second highest since Keiko won in 2006. The Fujimori ceiling could be pretty high.

Where will the left go? This is now a firmly conservative race. Voters who chose Mendoza will therefore have an unpalatable choice, and so their choice depends on how much they hate the Fujimori name. Otherwise they may be sorely tempted to spoil their ballot in protest. 15% of all presidential ballots were either blank or null, and almost 30% in congressional ballots. On Friday I wrote about the "I Hate You All" votes. The 15% was just about exactly the margin of victory between Fujimori and Kuczynksi. Given the choice between two conservative candidates, will they just spoil their ballot again? We'll have to see how strong the anyone-but-Fujimori vote is.


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