Raul Castro Indictment

The Department of Justice has unsealed an indictment against Raul Castro for shooting down the Brothers to the Rescue plane in 1996. The charge [INSERT DRAMATIC MUSIC HERE] is murder.

Just like Nicolás Maduro, Raul is a truly atrocious person that no one should feel even a modicum of sympathy for. They both actively crushed their own citizens for their own gain. But this indictment exists primarily to give a veneer of legality to some future military action that involves grabbing him. We needed to grab him and oh, by the way, we're also going to take over the government and funnel money back to the United States. Something along those lines.

Cubans, like Venezuelans and residents of badly gerrymandered districts here, deserve the freedom to vote for their own leaders. Cubans and Venezuelans further deserve not to give their natural resources to the United States. If the U.S. chooses to invade Cuba, the Venezuelan model suggests they won't get either one even though the Castro chokehold on the country might ease.

Read more...

U.S. Soft Power is Losing to China

R. Evan Ellis someone who has studied (and warned about) China's role in Latin America for a long time. It's very clear that he's deeply concerned about the U.S. ceding leadership to China. That's what headlines aren't catching--you get high profile "hey we pushed China out of this project" but underneath China is building very successful and lasting relationships while the Trump administration revels in bullying.

His most recent opinion piece laments the fall of the U.S. brand. A new largescale survey in Latin America demonstrates U.S. decline. It's stark:

36% of respondents identify the PRC as the best development model for their country.  The U.S., which has fallen 13 percentage points since the last time the survey was done in 2022, does not even finish second, but rather, third, behind Japan. 

Of even greater concern are the responses on which country would be the best partner for their own in specific areas.  On trade, 49% see China as the best partner, versus 26% choosing the U.S.  On digital technologies, 67% see China as the best partner, versus a mere 19% for the U.S.  In culture and education, an astounding 40% chose China, while only 18% incline toward the cradle of hot dogs, apple pie and rock-and-roll.

That's remarkable. But think about it: why would any country see the U.S. as the best partner for trade? Trump is famously fickle and unreliable, slapping tariffs when he's annoyed. And why would any country see the U.S. as best for education? The U.S. makes it very hard for foreign students to get visas and makes them afraid for their safety while they're here.

This is a big deal. It will outlive Trump and will continue even if there is a very actively pro-Latin America president. China developed it over 25-30 years.

Read more...

Trump Priorities Versus Venezuelan Realities

According to sources, U.S. and Venezuelan negotiators never discussed any role for María Corina Machado in Qater-mediated talks before the invasion. Trump apparently dismissed her from the start and hasn't shown any signs of changing.

But she's an important part of Venezuelan politics. Once again, I wonder what she's thinking and when she's going back. Her return will put the Delcy Rodríguez-Donald Trump lovefest in jeopardy. Choosing to ignore her appears to mean that Trump figured he could just push his priorities through and that removing Maduro would make Venezuelans loves him indefinitely. He wanted to avoid the messiness of a democratic transition so maneuvered to make it impossible.

Bit by bit, though, it's clear that neither the opposition nor hardcore Chavistas want Delcy in power. It's also clear that Venezuelans do not see how the U.S. taking Venezuelan oil is making their lives better. Promises of improvement have never been fulfilled. What Venezuelans are discovering is that when Trump makes promises, he often has no intention of fulfilling them.

Venezuelans want change. I have no idea how long it will take before they start demanding it but it's difficult to see that not happening unless the government violently suppresses it. Trump will have to decide what side he's on that point.

Read more...

More Cracks in Venezuela

Venezuelans have been souring on the situation they're in. And now more prominent people who are close to the regime are also complaining. Whatever you think of their politics, their arguments are entirely accurate. Delcy Rodríguez has handed Venezuela's wealth to the United States and people's lives are not getting better. Her approval ratings are sliding.

The question that comes to my mind is whether there is an anti-Delcy Chavista who decides to step forward as a challenger. That's unanswerable at the moment. Tied to that is the military's loyalty, which I assume is being bought but is also unknown.

The only way an unpopular dictator supported by the United States can stay in power is to repress its own citizens. That has happened plenty of times. The difference now is that Trump pays lip service to democracy, so how much repression would he accept for his favored leader to stay in power if protests start and things get dicey?

There are so many unknowns but we know one thing for sure: Venezuela is not a stable country. As people get more unhappy and the Chavista criticisms mount, they may well go to the streets in larger numbers and with more intent on political change. And they will not be on the same page--some will want Maráa Corina Machado and some will hate her. Not a great combination.

Read more...

Trump's Venezuela Honeymoon is Collapsing

I hope no one is surprised at this, but Donald Trump's honeymoon in Venezuela is collapsing. In February his approval was 82.9%, which slide to 74.% in March and then 47% in April. The explanation is very simple. Venezuelans overwhelmingly wanted Nicolás Maduro out but there is broad expectation of democratization, which isn't happening, and economic benefits, which also aren't happening. Venezuela remains a dictatorship with an economy in tatters.

To the extent he thinks about it at all, I would guess Trump figures that rejuvenating the oil industry will spread wealth around. But of course there is not reason to assume that when the government is so corrupt. But he praises Rodríguez while the Venezuelan people want--and deserve!--to choose their own leaders. Maduro lost the last election so her rule is entirely illegitimate.

Nationalism will emerge at some point, though I can't hazard a guess as to when. People are benefiting from Venezuelan oil and it's not the vast majority of Venezuelans. The leader of the opposition and the true winner of the last presidential election is not back in the country. A lot has changed but too much has stayed the same.

Read more...