Venezuelan influence
The NYT reports on Hugo Chávez’s recent travels, as he attempts to become a major donor in the region and supplant the U.S. as the major influence.
I disagree with Steven Taylor at Poliblog about whether aid necessarily means that a country will act in accordance with Chávez’s will (he uses the term “client state"). Influence only goes so far, as the UN vote demonstrated, and in some cases (like Bolivia) Chávez is often facilitating rather than directing.
At the very least, we would need to see Chávez trying to get a president to do something he/she otherwise would not do to determine his independent influence. Along these lines, he has learned well from the United States. If you don’t like something another country is doing, then punish it by taking out your investment. Chávez did so with Costa Rica because President Arias criticized him. But would he threaten to turn off the oil spigot if Daniel Ortega does something he doesn’t like?
4 comments:
Greg,
What do you think about the arms build up article on Chaves from today's Times. Of course those of us that are rational know that the Bush administration is not going to be attacking him, and he certainly isn't going to be invading other countries. So one must ask why is he purchasing this excess of weapons. My guess is to play the fear card with the population? Do you think it is mostly political?
John
Forgive me for mispelling ChaveZ.
Greg, Chavez has truned off the oil spigot, remember the Dominican Republic back in 2002-2003 (if I remember right). At that time Chavez said DR was housing coup plotters (i.e. C. A. Perez). Although I think your assesment is pretty much on the mark. Most countries are simply playing both the US and Chavez off each other to get the most financial benefit (can we blame them?). In the end idiology only goes so far.
John, you have to remember that some military modernization is needed in Venezuela but not to the degree they are spending. With that said many of the government positions are held by former military men. But I think there are many factors playing into the military build up: Buy support from China and Russia, they like new toys, military power is always good for national pride. What is of more concern is the creation of civial defense groups (not part of the military) and the purchase and manufacturing of AK-47. These can be used by loyalists to defend the revolution when Chavez's popularity declines. You can't use submarines, jets, and anti-aircraft against the population. So like you said he is instilling fear into the population to control it. I would argue the strategy is similar to what we are seeing in the US (although to a lesser degree here).
Sorry for the length :)
John--I posted about the arms build up on Sunday (Feb 25). It is hard to think of reasons that are related to external defense.
As for the DR, I don't remember the situation, so I'll have to look back. However, I certainly don't feel that there was a "lesson" that other countries would learn from it.
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