Freezing
Following up on yesterday's post, in which I wondered what Venezuela "freezing" relations with Colombia and Spain actually meant, the Spanish government had the same question.
The answer? It means nothing. The Venezuelan ambassador to Spain said that there would be "no change" in bilateral relations. With regard to the vague threats against Spanish companies, the Spanish Deputy Foreign Minister's response was that Chávez's remarks "are not very far removed from what he has been saying these days." In other words, Chávez says crazy stuff all the time and we just try to ignore it.
19 comments:
This is all about Sunday's referendum. Nationalism, Chavez hopes, will bring him votes.
Well, Wall Street seems to be taking the diplomatic crisis between Colombia and Venezuela pretty seriously.
AP just quoted Enrique Santos, co-director of Bogota's El Tiempo, as stating the following: "All the (Colombian) economic groups are very worried. They've already met with Uribe. There's a million jobs in play on the Colombian side."
Then "freeze" means one thing for Colombia and something different for Spain.
Greg, I do think it means one thing for Colombia and another for Spain. I'm not sure how much this would affect trade between Colombia and Venezuela. After all Venezuela imports (legally and illegally) lots of products from Colombia. I think this may end uphurting Venezuela more especially the boarder states.
both crises are being leveraged for political purposes.
The initial reaction to Colombia's decision was a very measured statement, balanced, even diplomatic. But then all of the sudden the tone changed. My guess? Chavez doesn't like the latest survey figured and needs an electoral boost badly.
Will he take the crisis with Colombia to another level? Perhaps. He did it before. He sees Uribe as an enemy, an ally of the States. If he can afford it (Chavez) and really wants a confrontation with the right and the US, he will embargo Colombian trade (funny just like the US does with Cuba). I bet you that
by the way, I meant Angola no Congo
I think Uribe is just as much a player as Chavez.
The para-scandal that has engulfed the Uribe administration & his inability to get anything done in regards to the FARC is not boding well for him.
The fact that the US congress has started to question some of the aid to Colombia is telling. I think he is trying to milk the US for all its worth, because in creating a crisis with Venezuela he is assured US support.
I think this may end uphurting Venezuela more especially the boarder states.
Complete nonsense. Venezuela can buy textiles from anyone. Colombia is far more dependent on Venezuela's market than Venezuela is on Colombia's. Why do you think Venezuela is taking a harder line in this dispute? Why do you think Dow Jones newswires is writing about the prospects of economic problems for Colombia, not Venezuela? Both presidents are hotheads, but neither is stupid.
The bottom line is that Venezuela holds the cards here.
Venezuela imports a lot of food from Colombia, so it would definitely be affected--how much I don't know. Less than Colombia, though.
I also agree with one of those anonymouses--how many different ones are there?--that Uribe is playing this for the U.S. audience.
Sorry, that was me talking about Uribe.
Does anyone have any knowledge of US ambassador Brownfields speech the same day Uribe "fired" Chavez? I have seen that Uribe's decision followed the ambassadors remarks, which is unusual because normally an ambassador would issue statements after the fact? Is there someplace to go see/read a transcript of the statement? Cant find it on US embassy page.
I doubt the conflict will go beyond words into economic sanctions, as Venezuela is already facing food scarcity issues because of increased consumption, and Colombia does provide alot of those agricultural products. But the intricacies of food supply would be an issue for another day.
I doubt the conflict will go beyond words into economic sanctions, as Venezuela is already facing food scarcity issues because of increased consumption and Colombia does provide alot of those agricultural products. But the intricacies of food supply would be an issue for another day.
Just to clarify, Venezuela has "shortages" of a few goods, but it has no general "food scarcity." Far from it, in fact.
Apparently Brownfield had been asked about the negotiations at a press conference earlier the same day and criticized Chávez. As far as I know, he didn't make any announcement.
I didnt mean to imply there was a general food shortage. I meant to say that increased consumption raising demand. Items like milk, etc that now fit more easily into the budget of poor Venezuelans.
Thanks for the clarification on the Ambassador statement. Do you personally know William Brownfield? He was the Ambassador to Chile previously, and was recently moved from Venezuela to Colombia after a tiff with Chavez.
No, I've never had any opportunity to meet him or see him speak.
I'll agree with Kelby, in that economic relations will probably stay intect both countries need each other.
Out of curuiosity I looked up Colobian trade and Venezuela makes up 10% of Colombian exports, nothing to shy away from but not exactly the bulk of it. Even if trade is affected it looked like Colombia has been able to weather the storm quite well in the past. So yes Colombia will suffer but Venezuela will to since it will have higher import costs.
I meant to say that increased consumption raising demand.
The problem isn't increased demand for food stuff its a lack of production and limited imports. Again a failure of Chavenomics.
Those "few" items are basic necessities, milk, sugar, eggs, meat. So yes it is a food shortage.
Actually KA, according to this chart, milk production has increased the past three years, approaching levels in the mid 1990s.
http://i6.photobucket.com/
albums/y218/oilwars/oilwars%202/milk.jpg
that would seems to indicate rising demand, not falling production. i would look at population growth, and an increase in purchasing power, either through the subsidized markets or income gains by the lower classes.
Ultimately, "freezing" probably doesn't mean too much. Although, as noted, it does seem to mean something different for Colombia, as Venezuela has recalled its ambassador.
Kelby, food items don't abid by the same supply and demand curves as other items (say an ipod). Second that picture comes from Dan's website (oil wars) works for the govt which makes me skeptical. Especially when you have a contradictory statement by the head of Fedenaga and Cavilac.
There is a supply problem due to Chavenomics and not caused by a sudden surge in demand.
Second that picture comes from Dan's website (oil wars) works for the govt which makes me skeptical.
You are a straight-up liar, KA. Oil Wars does not work for the Chavez government. In fact, if you read through the thread of his latest post, you'll find that he doesn't shy away from criticizing Chavez.
You see, the difference between you and OW, KA, is that OW actually has some principles. You, on the other hand, just blare out any old nonsense that strikes your fancy.
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