Saturday, October 09, 2010

Generalizing from Ecuador

An analyst named Ian Bremmer wrote a post about Ecuador in the Foreign Policy blog.  He explains that unrest in Ecuador is a reminder that Cuba and Venezuela could explode in large part because their governments are so unpopular and have to make cuts.

Some problems here.  First, Correa has an approval rating over 50 percent (or did before the current crisis, which likely will make it higher still).  His popularity is not the issue--anti-democratic opposition is.

Second, Cuba may explode because of the regime's unpopularity and the cuts, but some variation of this has been predicted since 1959.  I need more evidence--or really any evidence at all since none is given--to be convinced.

Third, Bremmer "uses cutting-edge political science to predict the political future--and how it will shape the global economy."  And yet his conclusion is:

The overall prognosis?  Stay tuned.

You gotta love "cutting edge political science."


Otto Rock 10:04 AM  

Indeed. According to Bremmer's logic we can expect a coup in Chile, Argentina and Peru in the near future. Latest poll numbers here.

Justin Delacour 1:46 AM  

His popularity is not the issue--anti-democratic opposition is.

I think Greg hits the nail on the head there.

Slave Revol.t,  11:26 PM  

You mean the mean machine poly-scy hammer has finally found a nail.


I was beginening to believe Greg would forever remain a virgin, a victim of US imperialist group-think.

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