Wednesday, November 03, 2010

The midterm elections and Latin America

Current numbers for Congress show a Republican majority in the House and a Democratic majority in the Senate.  Here are some initial thoughts on how this may affect Latin America.

First, U.S.-Latin American relations won't change drastically.  Many issues, such as Cuba or immigration, were not being reformed by Democrats even when they had the majority.

Second, immigration reform faces a very uphill battle for the next two years.  Success hinges largely on Republican perceptions of the long-term impact of anti-immigrant rhetoric on current and future Latino voters.

Third, the Colombia and Panama free trade agreements will possibly get new life.  The Obama administration has shown signs it is willing to sign them, and this could be a carrot the administration could use to gain Republican support for other issues.

Fourth, Venezuela is a wild card.  Particularly with its relationship with Iran, there are hawks in the House that would like sanctions of some sort.  It seems unlikely they would pass, and in fact our main regional ally, Colombian President Santos, is moving in the exact opposite direction.

3 comments:

Vicente Duque 12:09 PM  

Mr Weeks

Thanks for wonderful and opportune informations and articles.

Racists and Antediluvian monsters that were elected in Arizona : John McCain and Jan Brewer : They are OLD, SENILE, BALD, WRINKLED and to a certain extent, they are demented - Time will take care of them


First let me congratulate all people with a good heart and not a heart of stone :

Why ??

Because of the defeat of some Racists, Bigots and Extremists : Harry Reid defeats Sharron Angle in Nevada, Tom Tancredo loses the Governorship of Colorado to John Hickenlooper, Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina are defeated by Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer

And now, let's consider Arizona :

It is true that Jan Brewer and John McCain were elected.

But they are OLD, SENILE, BALD, WRINKLED and to a certain extent, they are demented.

Time will take care of these antediluvian monsters of American Politics. They won't survive the new generations and demography.

And with a do nothing congress lost in beautiful and useless speeches Americans will be bored and angry again.

Gridlock : yes, this will be the ultimate in congress talking and doing nothing.

The pendulum will swing to the other side.


Raciality.com

Vicente Duque

Pablo 8:29 PM  

"Success hinges largely on Republican perceptions of the long-term impact of anti-immigrant rhetoric on current and future Latino voters."

True indeed. For what it is worth, I am doing my part in conservative circles.

http://thecrossculturalist.blogspot.com/2010/11/gop-failed-to-gain-majority-because-of.html

Not all of us conservatives are anti-immigrant. But it is going to be an uphill battle to get something done of the immigration front.

leftside 1:49 PM  

First, U.S.-Latin American relations won't change drastically.

Having (Cuban hawk) Ileana Ros-Lehtinen chair the Foreign Affairs Committee is going to have significant impacts on US-Latin policy. She hates the entire Latin left with a passion that is hard to fathom for those not associated with Miami anti-Cuba politics. Anyone who dares have relations with Cuba is an eenemy to her - and will be treated as such by the House of Representatives. Obama is going to have to defer in many instances, rather than pick a fight and end up seen as defending Latin socialists on Fox news.

There were moves in the works on Cuba (not fast enough obviously) that will completely go in reverse. Cuba will realize there is little to nothing to gain from liberalization and the relationship will likely become ice cold again.

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