Wednesday, September 26, 2012

More on Romney and Latinos

We're seeing a spate of op-eds about how Mitt Romney can increase the number of Latinos voting for him. They all point to roughly the same conclusion: embrace immigration reform. What's bizarre, though, is the almost lack of recognition about the political consequences. Michael Gerson tosses this off at the end of his column:


The Republican embrace of immigration opponents will eventually deprive every other element of conservatism (pro-defense, pro-life, pro-business) of national influence.


That's it. No big deal, just deprive your base of its influence. In essence, then, he is explaining precisely why Romney likely won't do so well.

The rubber will hit the road, so to speak, during the debates. Romney's message is that President Obama has failed at immigration reform, and that he can do it. He will then be challenged a) about congressional Republican resistance to immigration reform; and b) the specifics of his proposal. His answers to a and b have a good chance at alienating his base.

In short, Romney will have to calculate the net gain of voters. Increasing the share of Latino votes means losing votes elsewhere. But how many?

2 comments:

Vicente Duque 3:28 PM  

Mr Weeks :

Don't worry for your Latino Friends :

Bets Obama/Romney : Mitt Romney accelerating in free fall - It does not seem impossible that Mitt Romney loses North Carolina, Missouri, Arizona and even Indiana. We have never seen such incredible collapse of a candidate. Data here



INTRADE Bets Obama/Romney in Swing States :


Colorado D65.8 R34.1, Florida D63 R25.1, Iowa D71.9 R28, Nevada D79.8 R24.9, New Hampshire D75.6 R22, North Carolina D42 R60, Ohio D78.6 R22, Virginia D70.1 R30, Wisconsin D71.1 R21


Arizona D22.7 R87.4, Georgia D9.9 R91, Indiana D19.8 R88, Michigan D91.8 R9.3, Minnesota D92.2 R10.1, Missouri D24.5 R75, New Mexico D89.9 R6.5, Oregon D96.9 R10.8, Pennsylvania D87 R10.1, Texas D9.5 R91

These are bets for Presidential Winner in each state.


Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012 : 74.8%

Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012 : 25.1%


Democratic nominee to win 320 or more Electoral College votes in 2012 Presidential Election

59.6%

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Republicans to control the Senate after 2012 Congressional Elections

20%

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Republicans to control the House of Representatives after 2012 Congressional Elections

73%

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Vicente Duque 8:37 PM  



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