Sunday, May 11, 2014

Presidential Approval in Latin America

Nicolás Maduro's approval has slipped to 37%. This is certainly notable because it suggests he is not convincing Venezuelans that his strategy for dealing with the protests--or for the problems underlying the protests--is the right one.

Before jumping to conclusions, though, we should note that presidents are not universally popular in Latin America.

Peru's Ollanta Humala is at 25%. For years Peru has been a black hole for presidential approval.

Argentina's Cristina Fernández is at 25%.

Colombia's Juan Manuel Santos is at 46%.

Mexico's Enrique Peña Nieto is in the high 30 to mid-40s, depending on your poll.

Brazil's Dilma Rousseff is in better shape, at 51%.

Ecuador's Rafael Correa was at 65% in December. Correa has consistently been one of the most popular presidents in the region.

Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega is also at 65%.

The bottom line is that you can be unpopular and remain in office, and even resist the opposition. It's interesting to compare to 2008, which saw a similar type of spread.













2 comments:

Otto ikn 1:32 PM  

That Maduro poll was interesting though, because aside from the oppo and Ni-ni scores, 50% of those IDing themselves as Chavistas were unhappy with the government, country and President. Sure a protest vote after all these upheavals and sure he can afford to ignore the oppos as always, but Maduro needs to be very wary about losing the baseline support, by attrition or otherwise. The polarization of Venezuelan politics is different from the other examples you listed.

Greg Weeks 6:45 AM  

Sure, and each of the presidents has their own context. My point is just that approval is a shaky indicator of outcomes. Oddly enough, Rafael Correa faces far more serious threats than many of the very unpopular presidents.

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