Thursday, August 13, 2015

The Revolution Will Not Be Demographic

I have a new article up at Latin America Goes Global. The upshot is that demography does not bode well for the Bolivarian revolution. It's an important variable that receives too little attention (my co-author and I brought this up last year to help explain Cuba's desire to normalize relations with the U.S.). So go click!


otto 9:29 AM  

"Socialism (of whatever specific type) is all about redistribution, using the government to shift wealth from the richer to the poorer."

Okay, agreed as a frame.

"For that you need a sufficient number of people who contribute through work more than they receive."

But capitalism/neoliberalism/free market economic theory doesn't?

"Having large numbers of people either too young or too old to work puts a greater strain on the economy."


Greg Weeks 9:50 AM  

Sure, but the more you want to redistribute, the greater the strain.

Otto ikn 10:29 AM  

I see where you're going in the piece, but the over-generalization undermines it. The concept that formal State redistribution ballons sans cesse is also implied here (versus the "leaner" free market model) when in fact bureaucracy 1) has a limit in a Socialist system (after all, in theory it's only a conduit) and 2) centre/right governments get equally as stodged by red tape.

It's incorrect of me to jump to anecdotals at this point, but this is a comments section so what the doodle: Living as i do in a south american country that's supposedly free market and watching the jaw-dropping level of State inefficiency that goes on here, to assume the way your article does that the problem is Bolivarian-only sticks in the craw.

Greg Weeks 7:04 AM  

Forget bureaucracy/inefficiency (or better, even say hold it constant) and focus on redistribution to dependent population, which is growing. That may also be true in free market model, but the redistribution will be happening to a lesser degree.

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