Impact of Making Venezuela A State Sponsor of Terrorism

The Trump administration is considering putting Venezuela on the State Sponsor of Terrorism list, which currently only has North Korea, Syria, Iran, and Sudan. There are variety of angles here, such as criteria (which Boz discusses), purpose, and utility. I want to focus on something else, which is human impact. The notion of putting Venezuela on the list has been around a long time, but the difference now is that there is a humanitarian disaster in Venezuela.

If Venezuela is put on the State Sponsor of Terrorism list, the administration will have hoops to jump if it wants to provide humanitarian assistance. From Section 620A of the Foreign Assistance Act:

PROHIBITION.—The United States shall not provide any assistance under this Act, the Agricultural Trade Development and Assistance Act of 1954, the Peace Corps Act, or the Export-Import Bank Act of 1945 to any country if the Secretary of State determines that the government of that country has repeatedly provided support for acts of international terrorism.

The President can, however, call for a waiver:

(1) the President determines that national security interests or humanitarian reasons justify a waiver of subsection (a), except that humanitarian reasons may not be used to justify assistance under part II of this Act (including chapter 4, chapter 6, and chapter 8), or the Export-Import Bank Act of 1945; and (2) at least 15 days before the waiver takes effect, the President consults with the Committee on Foreign Affairs 951 of the House of Representatives and the Committee on Foreign Relations of the Senate regarding the proposed waiver and submits a report to the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the chairman of the Committee on Foreign Relations of the Senate containing— (A) the name of the recipient country; (B) a description of the national security interests or humanitarian reasons which require the waiver; (C) the type and amount of and the justification for the assistance to be provided pursuant to the waiver; and (D) the period of time during which such waiver will be effective.  

The waiver authority granted in this subsection may not be used to provide any assistance under the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 which is also prohibited by section 40 of the Arms Export Control Act. 

A legitimate question to ask here is whether the administration would ever bother sending aid to Venezuela in the first place. Aid is aimed at neighboring countries dealing with refugees, since any aid sent to Venezuela would certainly disappear.

But there is also the question of oil. In 2018, the United States has imported anywhere from roughly 13,000 to 20,000 barrels per month from Venezuela. That has been on a decline over the years, given that when Hugo Chávez took office it was more like 50,000. But still, this is not an insignificant amount and cutting it off (i.e. embargo) would have a major negative impact on the Venezuelan economy and by extension on the average Venezuelan.

Section 620J of the Export Administration Act lays out the hoops:

(j) COUNTRIES SUPPORTING INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM.—(1) A validated license shall be required for the export of goods or technology to a country if the Secretary of State has made the following determinations: 

(A) The government of such country has repeatedly provided support for acts of international terrorism. (B) The export of such goods or technology could make a significant contribution to the military potential of such country, including its military logistics capability, or could enhance
the ability of such country to support acts of international terrorism.
(2) The Secretary and the Secretary of State shall notify the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the House of Representatives and the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs and the Committee on Foreign Relations of the Senate at least 30 days before issuing any validated license required by paragraph (1).

In short, potential humanitarian assistance and oil exports would be affected, but there are ways around the restrictions. I might write some other time about why the U.S. should bother doing this to Venezuela.