Deterring Influence in Venezuela
The U.S. wants to deter other countries' influence in Venezuela. From CNN:
The Pentagon is developing new military options for Venezuela aimed at deterring Russian, Cuban and Chinese influence inside the regime of President Nicolas Maduro, but stopping short of any kinetic military actions, according to a defense official familiar with the effort."Deterring influence" is a weird concept. Deterrence normally refers to preventing aggression or force of some kind. And if deterrence itself is not backed by a credible threat of force--and the U.S. official is announcing publicly that it will "stop short" of force--then it isn't deterring anything. The U.S. can do naval exercises but that doesn't stop Russians from exerting influence.
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[D]eterrence options could include US naval exercises in the immediate region to emphasize humanitarian assistance and more military interaction with neighboring countries. The idea would be to challenge any Russian, Cuban or Chinese notion that they could have unchallenged access to the region.
The Cubans definitely already have "unchallenged access to the region" so that part is nonsensical. If "unchallenged access to the region" refers to economic relations, that ship has sailed. The Chinese have deep economic roots in the region, built up over 20-25 years. Meanwhile, the Russians don't want the whole region as far as I can tell--they have a longstanding relationship with Cuba and established relations with Hugo Chávez as well. Their influence is already there.
This doesn't even get into the question of how the U.S. has squandered its own influence in Venezuela, which is part of a short Twitter discussion here.
I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that "all options are on the table" mostly means "there is no plan at all." Exercises like these reinforce that point because they seem to lack any strategic logic.
2 comments:
The situation in Venezuela is quite interesting: the Maduro regime is relying on Cuban military and agents, the military and secret police, and paramilitary colectivos. Meanwhile Guaidó, whose ambassador sits in the OAS, is parading around the country and filling plazas as if he were Jesus. The Grupo de Lima told the EU to stop interfering with their stupid dialogue proposals, Bolton and Pompeo make growling sounds, but it's evident the US military isn't about to "buy" Venezuela at this point in time.
The diplomatic effort to isolate the Maduro dictatorship seems to be working, and we can assume right now the elephants are fighting for votes in the UN General Assembly, where a majority could take Maduro's henchman out, and put Guaidó in the driver seat. This of course will have a huge impact.
I believe a US carrier parade and visits to Colombia will help from the military standpoint, because if they decide to go for it, the regime wont have time to react, and timing can be crucial in some of the operations we can envision (I lived in Venezuela for many years and I'm familiar with key spots the US military may want to strike and take over on D day). And that's all I'm going to say about that at this time.
Another interventionist dreamer....
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