Guaidó and Trump

There was plenty of speculation about Trump State of the Union address and Venezuela. Would Juan Guaidó be there? Would any new policy be announced? There was doubt because Trump was not far from Guaidó in Florida, but golfed rather than meet him. Ultimately the answer was yes and no, which has been Trump's basic strategy for a while now. Here is the relevant part of the speech:

We are supporting the hopes of Cubans, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans to restore democracy. The United States is leading a 59-nation diplomatic coalition against the socialist dictator of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro. 

(APPLAUSE) 

Maduro is an illegitimate ruler, a tyrant who brutalizes his people. But Maduro's grip on tyranny will be smashed and broken. Here this evening is a very brave man who carries with him the hopes, dreams, and aspirations of all Venezuelans. 

Joining us in the gallery is the true and legitimate president of Venezuela, Juan Guaido. 

(APPLAUSE) 

Mr. President, please take this message back to your homeland. 

(APPLAUSE) 

Thank you, Mr. President. Great honor. Thank you very much. 

Please take this message back that all Americans are united with the Venezuelan people in their righteous struggle for freedom. Thank you very much, Mr. President.

I have two main impressions at this point, and of course with Trump everything might be thrown out the window tomorrow. But here they are.

First, I increasingly think Trump sees Guaidó as ineffective--a loser--because he got nothing accomplished in 2019. Maduro is stronger than ever. Therefore I think the Florida snub was exactly that. No one knew until the end that Guaidó would be at the SOTU, since the only announcement was about former police chief Ivan Simonovis. I have to wonder whether Marco Rubio and Rick Scott whined, complained, cajoled, and begged to get Guaidó there too. At this point, Trump doesn't give a crap about Guaidó or Venezuela. It was supposed to be an easy win and now it's hard, so he moves on.

Second, like I've argued before, at this point Trump has no obvious reason to do anything with Venezuela except sanctions. Military action is already ruled out. Temporary Protected Status is anathema to his base and to Stephen Miller, who hovers at all times like a specter in the background. By just periodically saying tough things and imposing risk-free sanctions, he got Rubio on his side for impeachment. And letting Guaidó come to the SOTU might just be all he needs for Florida hardliners to stick with him. Even NPR lauds it as bipartisan. Trump wins all the way around.

Update: Trump will meet with Guaidó later today.

Past experiences suggest there will be talk and no action beyond sanctions. If he announces something real like TPS, then it'll definitely be a change of strategy.