U.S.-Chilean relations

Interesting piece in La Tercera about President Bachelet's upcoming (June 8) visit to the White House, written by Ascanio Cavallo, one of Chile's most respected journalists (who has written great books on the Pinochet dictatorship and democratic transition). She is getting the star treatment, staying at Blair House and getting a working lunch with the president. The message, though, is that future star treatment will be based on how she deals with Chávez. In particular, the Bush administration wants to be sure she does not support Venezuela' s bid to be on the UN Security Council. The Chilean government is being reminded that although it opposed the invasion of Iraq, the U.S. still negotiated the free trade agreement, but that if it supports Venezuela in this case, the costs "serían altísimos."

Note: La Tercera has started a unique format, where you see the newspaper page exactly as it is in the print version, and it takes up the entire screen.

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The RNC's take on immigration

From ImmigrationProf Blog: a senior advisor for the Republican National Committee recently wrote a memo telling Republicans what polls suggest about immigration, which do not reflect the current thinking in the House. For example:

More than two-thirds of voters – and equally large numbers of Republicans – support creating a temporary worker program.

Proposals to allow illegal immigrants who have been in the country for at least five years and meet other requirements (pay a fine, pay back taxes, learn English, and go to the back of the line) to apply for legal status garner wide support.

Republicans are so very split on this issue. I have a feeling House members will dismiss this, but it comes back to a fundamental question that I've addressed more than once--what do Americans really think about Latin American immigration? Anyone who claims a simple answer is flat wrong.

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Violence and Venezuela

Juxtaposing news from two different blogs provides a sobering view: Boz notes that Caracas is now the most violent city in Latin America, while Camilo links to several stories about how Chávez is negotiating to manufacture Russian Kalashnikovs (AK-47s) in Venezuela.

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Punishing bloggers in Egypt

The Washington Post has a disturbing story about how the Egyptian government is singling out bloggers for punishment. Given the country's perpetual state of emergency, they can be jailed indefinitely. Apparently bloggers are really beginning to annoy President Mubarak, which may simply mean their political criticisms are accurate. He then uses the following twisted logic to explain that he gets to decide what is free speech:

"Most of what they are writing could be punished according to the law, because it is libel and blasphemy," Mubarak said. Referring to himself as the source of whatever free speech exists in Egypt, he added: "If they think that what they are doing is an expression of their freedom, they should remember who gave them this chance, and who is insisting on its continuity."

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Coffee and the radio

I was on Charlotte Talks this morning with Mariano Ospina, a Colombian whose award-winning coffee company is headquartered here. He very generously gave me some Premier Grand Cru Ospina Estate Coffee, and I am drinking some of it now. Excellent stuff.

The idea of the show was to explain why Americans (and Charlotteans specifically) should care about Latin America. Not surprisingly, the hour went very fast.

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Immigration Op-Ed

Check out today's Charlotte Observer for an Op-Ed piece on immigration that I wrote with my dad.

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Colombian election and the left in Latin America

As predicted by everyone, Uribe won the Colombian presidential election, though he received an even larger share of the vote (62 percent) than generally predicted. The candidate of the left, Carlos Gaviria, won 22 percent, the largest share the left has ever received.

I know I am sounding like a broken record, but I do get tired of the conventional wisdom about the left that keeps getting repeated without analysis. In this case, the Washington Post article argues that Uribe’s election “bucks the trend of leftist leaders taking office across South America in recent years.” It adds:

Recent years have seen left-leaning leaders take office in Bolivia, Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Chile. But the election of the conservative Uribe bucks the leftward trend in South America.

I've said this many times, but it bears repeating: the governments listed there are so diverse that lumping them together makes no sense.

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Padres beat the Cardinals

The Padres come from behind 6-2 to win 10-8 against the Cardinals, to win the rubber game of the series. Not bad at all. Jake Peavy did not pitch that well, but it shows we can score runs in Petco when needed, even against great teams.

And Barry Bonds hit number 715. I find myself totally uninterested.

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Colombian elections

Colombia holds its presidential elections today, with incumbent Alvaro Uribe widely expected to win a majority, and thus avoid a second round. Check out Plan Colombia and Beyond for a good summary of how each candidate views the U.S.-Colombia relationship. On Tuesday I'll be on Charlotte Talks to talk some about Colombia but also about Latin America in general--the other guest is a Colombian in the coffee business, whose father was president just before La Violencia.

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The U.S. Military and Latin America

Interesting stuff. The army general in charge of the U.S. Southern Command is openly questioning U.S. policy toward Cuba, saying it needs to be rethought. In particular, he wants to be able to make contact with Cuban officers. This comes on the heels of the Pentagon publicly saying that it did not like the policy of penalizing countries that refused to provide waivers to U.S. soldiers with regard to the International Criminal Court.

There is both good and bad intertwined in this. The good is that most aspects of our Cuba policy make little sense and at times have precisely the opposite effect intended, so it’s a good idea to rethink them. The bad is that, as Dana Priest has aptly argued in The Mission, the U.S. military is making policy in many parts of the world because the White House is paying no attention and/or is not interested. Civilians should be making coherent policy, but they aren’t.

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Things I Don't Understand, Part I

One thing I don’t understand is why people back into parking spaces. My only guess is that they figure it will be quicker when they want to leave.

I had an example today. I drove into the parking deck here on campus, and pulled forward into a space. There had been a car well ahead of me when I entered, and the person was backing into a space. Back, forward, a little sideways, forward, back, multiple times trying to get straight. I had already parked and was walking well away from him or her before they finished. So the entire effort had wasted a lot of time, and I really doubt they will ultimately get out too much faster than me, even though I will have to back out when I leave.

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Student knowledge of politics

I am teaching Intro to Comparative Politics during this summer session, and yesterday for fun I gave my students a quiz on politics, which they could do anonymously. I just wanted to see how much people knew. Here are the results. N=19

How is the number of electoral votes for each state determined?

Correct: 32%

Who is the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives?

Correct: 5% (one person!)

Identify NC’s two senators:

Dole: 21%
Burr: 16%

Two people correctly identified both of them

Identify the Governor of NC:

Correct: 58%

Identify the Mayor of Charlotte:

Correct 47%

These numbers are quite low, of course, though I don’t know offhand how they compare to national surveys. It does help to underline a point I made in class, which was that it just seems so odd that the U.S. utilizes a system for electing its president that very few people understand. Even more odd is that people realize that they don’t understand it, yet still don’t care.

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Does Chávez really want to break with the U.S.?

In his newly created blog, Andres Oppenheimer argues that, despite Chávez's rhetoric, he is working to increase Venezuela's investment in the U.S. A few weeks ago, though, Camilo gave evidence of what he argued was a concerted effort by Chávez to pull away from the United States, perhaps to break relations entirely.

I'm still in a "we'll have to wait and see" mood.

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Bush's role in passing immigration reform

According to the WP, some House Republicans say that passage of a new immigration law is not possible unless President Bush puts all his energy into it.

One problem is that the last Bush approval rating I saw was 29 percent, just absurdly low (for a very cool graph of his approval ratings over time, check this out, compiled by Steven Ruggles at the University of Minnesota). Given the fact that immigration divides his party, the president has almost no incentive to use up what tiny amount of political capital he might have. There is thus a solid chance that nothing will be passed, though at this point there is pressure for Congress at least to look like it is doing something.

The Senate will likely vote on Thursday, and negotiations with the House will take place in June. Although I will be interested to see the Senate version, I wonder whether it will be relevant--either nothing will be passed or the ultimate law will scarcely resemble it given significant differences with House Republicans.

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Most Useless Newspaper Article I've Read in a While

This AP article has the headline "Mexican migrants heading north" and after reading it, I learned the shocking news that many Mexicans are coming to the United States. Maybe this is what happens to reporters when their deadlines are looming and they don't have anything written.

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Mexican immigration law

Here’s an interesting article in the Miami Herald about how Mexican law treats non-natives. Even if people become naturalized Mexican citizens, they are barred from serving in Congress, national legislatures, the Supreme Court, governorships, and sometimes even town councils. Here is a real shocker:

Recently the Mexican government has gone even further. Since at least 2003, it has encouraged cities to ban non-natives from such local jobs as firefighters, police and judges.

What basis could there possibly be for preventing naturalized citizens from serving in these positions? And why would the federal government make an effort to push for that sort of law at the city level?

Of course, these sorts of stories are getting more attention because the Mexican government has been so vociferous that its citizens should be treated better in the United States. I happen to agree completely with that position, but Mexico’s immigration laws are perhaps even more ridiculous than ours, which is saying something.

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Bacardi, Cuba and Political Science

An honors student of mine just graduated and is currently in Mexico (I will not name names, but his initials are John Hyatt). He emailed me that the label on a bottle of Bacardi in Mexico states that the company was founded in Cuba. He had never seen that mentioned in the U.S., and asked me about it. Being the good political scientist that I am, in the interest of political analysis I went and bought a bottle of Bacardi (I had to go to the store, so happened also to pick up a bottle of Coke). It makes no mention of Cuba at all, but only Puerto Rico, where the majority of production takes place. It says the company was established in 1862, but not the fact that it was in Cuba.

Bacardi is one of the very few companies that has not written off its losses in Cuba. An article in The Guardian (based on a book that was written on the topic—I cannot say I am interested enough to buy it) notes that Bacardi has given money to the Cuban American National Foundation (CANF) and to politicians who support anti-Castro legislation. Bacardi’s very glitzy website has a history timeline, which says that the company’s assets were “illegally confiscated by Cubas [sic] totalitarian regime.”

This raises some questions. Why refuse to list the Cuba connection (at least on the bottle) in the U.S., but not in Mexico? Is it because Cuba is not seen with disfavor in Mexico? Why does Bacardi hang on so much when other companies have decided their property in Cuba is long gone? What is now happening on the land and production facilities it once owned? Is this all just a good excuse for me to make a rum and Coke?

When I discuss Cuba in class, I always admit that I cannot see an easy transition taking place, though I hope I’m wrong. Apparently Bacardi will be right in there, demanding back everything it lost when Fidel began nationalizing.

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Hugo Chávez and Latin America

The NYT has an article about some of the negative responses in Latin America to Hugo Chávez. It doesn’t cover anything really new, but does make me wonder whether Chávez’s regional popularity has already peaked. There must be some more pro-Chávez analyses out there that deny this, but I haven’t yet seen them.

One theme the article brings out is the idea that Latin Americans reject the hubris of the United States, but that perhaps now they are doing the same with regard to Chávez. Maybe they will find a political solution that avoids the worst aspects of both.

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Academic blogging

I’ve been reading a few blogs in recent days, written by people who are either ABD or recent Ph.D.s. All are anonymous, and are sometimes surprisingly frank, to the point that at times I feel like a voyeur just reading them. However, I’ve been attracted by their discussions about academic life as graduate school ends, especially in the social sciences. I now have tenure, but I can still relate to many of the same issues they raise, and perhaps reading them provides a good reminder of what recent Ph.D.s have to deal with. In short, academia is a pretty weird profession.

ABDmom is, as her name suggests, ABD at a large university, with an Assistant Professor job lined up in the fall.

Professor Me is revising her dissertation and has a job lined up.

BrightStar is an Assistant Professor in the social sciences.

ArticulateDad finished his Ph.D. in 2005 and is looking for a position.

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U.S.-Venezuelan relations

The public diplomacy of U.S.-Venezuelan relations remains as childish as ever. The U.S. announced it would no longer sell arms to Venezuela because it wasn’t “cooperating” in the “war on terror.” Since we barely sell arms to Venezuela (which has been doing a lot of business with Russia) this seems to be a gratuitous policy meant primarily to rile up Chávez.

In response, Chávez obviously tried to think of what might really make Bush (sorry, I mean “Mr. Danger”) mad, so announced he was thinking of selling his F-16s to Iran. Since the U.S. has the right to deny the sale of its planes, such a sale can never happen. Funny enough, the Iranians even denied they were interested at all, thus showing the entire idea was never based in reality.

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Moving

I am in the process of moving houses, so it'll be a few days until I post much again.

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Airlines & lost luggage

For three trips in a row now involving Charlotte--twice by me, and now once by my parents, on two separate airlines--flight delays have led to rushed connections, then lost (or I should say delayed) luggage. As for national security, the airlines are utterly clueless about where any bag is until it magically shows up somewhere. The stock answer is, "It will be on the next flight" but of the three times, that was only true once.

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Senate immigration deal

Senators Frist and Reid “reached a deal” on immigration. What this seems to mean is that they came up with a plan that can pass the Senate, and have agreed on the composition of a group of senators to hammer out a compromise with the House. It still includes a path of citizenship for people here illegally, though I have yet to see any details.

Everything remains vague. Frist says there will be a “considerable” number of amendments next week when debate starts up again, but no word on what they might look like. The White House wants something passed by Memorial Day. Then the nitty gritty--deal making between the House and Senate--will really begin.

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Chávez and Peruvian politics

First, there were reports that a reported connection to Hugo Chávez was hurting López Obrador’s in the Mexico presidential campaign. Now, Chávez (or more importantly, his penchant for making inflammatory comments) may be hurting Ollanta Humala, who is already trailing Alan García for the presidential run-off in Peru. In fact, Humala himself acknowledged that fact:

"Obviously (Chavez) is not helping. I'm not in direct contact with him, but we do say to him, please, leave us to do our job and run our campaign," Humala told current affairs television show Cuarto Poder on Sunday.

Chávez has often been compared to Fidel Castro, but I think Fidel is a far better diplomat. He knows when to hold ‘em, and when to fold ‘em, as it were. With his oil money and considerable popularity, Chávez had the potential to become a major hemispheric force, but especially recently he seems to be his own worst enemy.

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The downsides of Latin American emigration

An article in the Washington Post highlights an issue that is receiving increased attention, including an NPR story I heard on the way to campus this morning. It is the emptying out of Latin American towns, as the working age population emigrates to the United States. Children live with their grandparents, not knowing when they will see their parents again, who for the most part have entered the U.S. illegally.

This is an issue that should be analyzed in tandem with remittance studies, which focus on the economic benefits for Latin America. Remittances can be life savers, but massive emigration may simply mean economic stagnation, with towns full mostly of the old and the very young, with people leaving when they’re teenagers.

Meanwhile, the NPR story talks about how some of those children are having behavioral problems due to lack of parental involvement.

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The "Left" in Latin America

Given the headlines in today’s Chilean papers, I thought I would comment some more on the “left” in Latin America. President Bachelet is denying that she ever congratulated Evo Morales on nationalization (he says she did), saying that she doesn’t comment on other governments’ policies and simply was confirming a bilateral meeting.

Meanwhile, as NTKLA points out, in Peru Ollanta Humala has distanced himself from Hugo Chávez, and association with Chávez may have damaged the campaign of López Obrador in Mexico, who now seems to be behind in every poll.

Andres Oppenheimer has an interesting Op-Ed about how little the so-called “left” in Latin America agrees on anything.

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Chávez in power

Hugo Chávez says he wants a referendum to extend his presidency another 25 years. He also suggested he might ask to remain president “indefinitely.”

No matter how much you love any president, this sort of thing is not good.

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Maybe the Padres can win after all

I’ve been very dubious about Chan Ho Park, but he pitched nine scoreless innings (though no win) as the Padres beat the Cubs in 11 innings. We’ve now won six in a row, leaving us only one game under .500 and 2.5 games out of first. For the moment, the NL West is tied (with the AL West) as the worst division, in terms of the lowest winning percentage of the first place team (.567).

The other teams in the division don’t have awesome looking line-ups (and Barry Bonds is not hitting well) so maybe the Padres’ mix of the old and the young can really compete.

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More on defining the left in Latin America

Further complicating the “leftist” label in Latin America, Uruguayan President Tabaré Vázquez has been talking with President Bush about trade, with the ultimate goal of a free trade agreement.

Vázquez is always cited as part of the leftist tilt, yet here he is negotiating trade with the U.S., and even taking a swipe at Evo Morales, saying that “he welcomed foreign investment and noted that his country respected its contractual obligations.” This refers to Bolivia’s recent nationalization of natural gas. Not the sort of behavior you’d expect from a “leftist.”

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Nice day in academia

This has been a very nice academic day. First of all, it is a gorgeous spring day. Classes are over but finals have not begun, so I have only a few things to grade for the next several days. This morning, a student in Latin American Studies whose honor’s thesis I am chairing, defended that thesis on reactions to the Argentine dollar peg—congratulations to John Hyatt on an interesting paper and good defense.

This afternoon I’ve finished up another article for submission and put it in the mail (yet another journal that does not do email submission—do they get too many submissions to make email work well?). I remember some time ago, Michelle (aka La Profesora Abstraida) had talked about the goal of having three journal manuscripts out at a time. Or was it Mungowitz? Vegreville? A quick look at her archives didn’t yield anything, and I don’t have time for more searching.

I think it’s a great goal—I’ve been into writing books, and so for the past three years or so have not written as many articles, which I am trying now to catch up on. It is not easy to have three going at once, but if you’re well behind that, it might be useful to think about whether there are other things you might need to spend less time on. Being behind also will make the tenure process very stressful, and later will make full professor a distant goal.

I’m not sure if I am in the majority or not, but I really enjoy the process of research, writing and publication (though the sting of rejection is still there—next year PS: Political Science & Politics will publish a piece I wrote on the issue of rejection in Political Science, which I wrote after a very annoying rejection I got from a top journal). The article I've just sent off is especially fun because I co-wrote it with my dad.

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Immigration backlash or not?

I read this article in the Washington Post, and although it is on an important topic—the possible backlash against the immigration rallies—I found it annoying, probably because I have recently graded a load of term papers in my US-Latin American Relations class, and this article had some of the same common problems. In short, it has a clear hypothesis, but then does not provide sufficient evidence to support it.

The article’s main argument is the following:

While a series of marches focused much of the nation's attention on the plight of illegal immigrants, scores of other Americans quietly seethed. Now, with the same full-throated cry expressed by those in the country illegally, they are shouting back.

In short, the immigration rallies have created a significant backlash, and the article goes on to suggest that this will hurt the movement. Pretty strong stuff. I focused in particular on the idea that there is “the same full-throated cry” by those who disagree with the intent of the rallies. Given that there were hundreds of thousands of people, rallies all over the country, etc. then we would need to see evidence of something similar, or at least polls showing the backlash. Instead, the article provides:

--a seemingly random selection of quotes from 3-4 people
--the spokesman for John Cornyn (who himself apparently did not have the same full-throated cry, so passed it off to staff)
--a quote from Tom Tancredo, who said he had attended a dinner where people agreed with his views

I think the issue of backlash is extremely important, and deserves real attention. It is disappointing to see such a hash made of it in the Post.

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Problems with U.S. drug policy

In a story that is getting less play because of all the immigration hubbub, even a key Plan Colombia supporter (Senator Charles Grassley) is contradicting the cheery report of John Walters, the U.S. “drug czar.”

Incidentally, when and why did the term “drug czar” come into use? Why czar, and not king, emperor, or maybe shah?

Anyhow, the czar claimed that purity of cocaine was down, and the price was up. U.S. drug policy is based on the idea that if we drive prices high enough, then people will stop using, so price hikes are a way of measuring “success” (whether that can ever work is, of course, another issue).

See Adam Isacson’s blog for a good discussion of how the numbers were being spun. He includes a final tidbit about immigration, namely that President Uribe suggested implanting microchips in the bodies of seasonal workers to keep track of them.

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Immigration rallies but no boycott

Although on NPR this morning there was much talk of boycotts, the NYT does a good job of explaining that no boycott materialized. In fact, in Charlotte a number of Latino businesses closed as their owners participated in rallies, so the economic impact may have been felt largely within the Latino community itself. Ultimately, nationwide the day was similar to the previous rallies, meaning there was minimal economic disruption, but a large number of people participating peacefully. As a result, my guess is that there will be little or no backlash.

Now we get to wait and see what happens in Congress. To what degree will these public displays influence policy?

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Latino immigrants in Charlotte

On a day when the nation is focused on immigration, it seems fitting to discuss some of the data I’ve been gathering for my grant on Latino immigration to Charlotte. For example, in 2000 Latinos accounted for 12.5% of births here, which increased to 18% for 2004 (2005 birth data is not yet available, but should reach 1 in 5, while white non-Hispanic births will account for less than half). About 62% of the mothers are Mexican. Somewhere around 9% of the total population is Latino.

Also interesting is that Latino women have healthier babies—there are fewer incidences of low birth weight, and fewer premature babies than non-Latinos.

With the aid of my GIS programmer wife, I’m going to (well, she’s going to) make some cool maps with all this and other data, which is at the zip code level.

I have no idea how well organized the Day Without an Immigrant is here, though Latino leaders (such as at the Latin American Coalition) are urging people not to skip school or work.

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Some Thoughts on Bachelet and Business

A friend of mine in the business world is currently working in Chile, and has now spent several years there. He said he had been thinking about the feedback he’s been getting from Chilean business people about President Bachelet, namely that they don’t like her economic strategies, and believe that with Piñera the current economic boom could have led to 8-9% growth, whereas Bachelet will be unable to achieve the same.

My first reaction is that we should not be surprised that conservative business people would grumble after seeing a socialist elected instead of one of their own. When has business anywhere ever rejoiced about such an outcome?

But I also wonder about the power of perception and conventional wisdom. I tend to agree with Matthew Shugart’s appraisal of Bachelet, that she really has no record of being “leftist” and therefore somehow unfriendly to business. It may well be that business people will either a) change their minds, as many have with Lula in Brazil; or b) keep complaining even while making very nice profits.

What also struck me was that even if the Chilean business right is so concerned, it has clearly been unable to convince the rest of the country. President Lagos left office with a 70+% approval rating. Bachelet’s, meanwhile, is not as high but still over 50% in her first several weeks. It also may well be that people in business are among the few who look back with nostalgia on the economic policies of the Pinochet years, while many Chileans—especially women and the young—are more skeptical.

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The Dancer Upstairs

Last night I finished the novel The Dancer Upstairs, by Nicholas Shakespeare. It is a fictionalized account of the hunt for and capture of Abimael Guzmán, the leader of the Shining Path in Peru. It centers on the police officer who eventually found him in Lima. I enjoyed it--it’s added my book list on the left side--and it made me want to find a good biography of Guzmán. I haven’t found any in English, though maybe there is one published in Peru.

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Day Without an Immigrant

I’m getting emails about the Day Without an Immigrant on May 1. What I find most interesting is how new this is. Over the past several discussions in my U.S.-Latin American Relations class, my students have been debating whether it will be effective, and whether there will be a backlash of some sort—we just don’t know. Perhaps the key is whether it remains totally nonviolent.

If anyone is interested in North Carolina activities, check out this blog.

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Jorge Castañeda's article on the left and populism

I finally got around to reading the Jorge Castañeda's article in Foreign Affairs, which I think is thought provoking and worth reading, but still incomplete in its analysis of the “two lefts” in Latin America.

Here is Castañeda’s definition of “left”:

“that current of thought, politics, and policy that stresses social improvements over macroeconomic orthodoxy, egalitarian distribution of wealth over its creation, sovereignty over international cooperation, democracy (at least when in opposition, if not necessarily once in power) over governmental effectiveness.”

Is it analytically useful to put Perón in the same category as Hugo Chávez? Or, for that matter, to label Néstor Kirchner as an unrepentant leftist? He argues that populists are ardent anti-Communists, which fits Perón but not Chávez (I am not sure about Kirchner). We are all familiar with Chávez, but is López Obrador in Mexico really the boogeyman that Castañeda makes him out to be, i.e. that he “loves power more than democracy, and…will fight to keep it at great cost”?

I think Castañeda conflates populism and “leftism,” which bring us back to the problem of over-simplifying political realities in Latin America. It is more useful to argue that there are indeed two strands of the left in the region, but that populism (and corporatism) is also present, such that not all leaders can easily be categorized as leftist. As political scientists, we need to dust off these old concepts, which were so prevalent in the 1970s, and rethink them. It would be a great idea for an article (if only I had the time).

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Cuba trading with Alabama

Just a small piece from the Miami Herald about how Alabama and Cuba are doing business, given the very limited opportunities offered by the U.S. government (in particular, the transaction has to be done with cash prepayment--no credit--and can only be agricultural or medical goods).

HAVANA -- Cuba agreed Wednesday to buy another $20 million in agricultural goods from Alabama, among several U.S. farm states still pushing for more trade with the communist-run island despite tightened U.S. restrictions.
Alabama Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks told a news conference that his southern state's relationship with Cuba in recent years had been ``extremely important to the farmers of Alabama.''

This is another fascinating example of how U.S.-Cuban relations create very odd bedfellows. Alabama business organizations have been arguing for more trade with Cuba, especially for catfish, forest products, poultry, peanuts, and cotton. Googling "alabama trade cuba" brought a surprising number of hits, including open calls to end the embargo.

This is a Republican state, not one you would expect to be pushing hard to restore ties, but even many conservatives are beginning to wonder whether U.S. Cuba policy is worthwhile.

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Chávez spending his money on a good cause

The BBC article says it all.

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U.S. policy toward Cuba

Ironically, just after meeting with Chinese President Hu Jintao, President Bush made a public statement about U.S. policy toward Cuba, saying, "I have taken the position that trade with the country enables a tyrant to stay in power." It's an echo of the old argument made by Jeane Kirkpatrick that greatly influenced the Reagan administration, namely that there are good (authoritarian) dictatorships and bad (totalitarian) dictatorships, and we should stop moaning about human rights abuses when the government is favorable to us.

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Rubio's

I'm in San Diego for a very quick trip, and whenever I come back I have to go to Rubio's to get a fish burrito combo. If at all possible we also go to El Indio, especially since it's conveniently close to the airport.

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Journal Submission

I just sent an article manuscript off to an academic journal. It is always a nice feeling, where you have accomplished something and have a span of time during which you don't have to deal with it. And maybe that span of time is also like Spring Training, where every team can think about winning the World Series...

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Populism in Latin America Part II

Wow. Yesterday I said I hoped U.S. media would finally pick up on the nuances of populism in Latin America, and today the NYT did just that. The article uses the word "leftist" only once, and focuses on the rise of populist leaders in the context of the disintegration of traditional parties. Let's hope this reporting trend continues, so that we can get past the wearying stereotypes.

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Populism in Latin America

The Economist offers up a good analysis of populism in Latin America, and is one of the very few media sources that is finally getting past the antiquated “leftist” label. Let's hope the U.S. media follows suit. Some important points the article makes is that populist and leftist are not synonymous, and that even “leftist” lumps together social democrats and socialists. Labeling most South American presidents simply as “leftist” totally ignores the political diversity in the region.

The article concludes by arguing that although populists appeal to the poor, ultimately they do very little to alleviate poverty. All too often, populism becomes a platform for personal power, to the detriment of both democracy and equality. Is it possible to have a president who goes around traditional elites and appeals directly to the poor, but who simultaneously promotes transparency, rule of law, equality and democracy?

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Karen Hughes' Visit to Latin America

The president is sending Karen Hughes down to Latin America to improve the image of the U.S., which is extraordinarily negative. Such a visit is not necessarily bad, and has a long history (Eisenhower famously sent his brother Milton, who then a wrote a book about Latin America entitled, The Wine is Bitter). The serious problem, however, is that the trip is based on the idea that the U.S. is doing great things, but just not getting any credit.

According to Hughes: "The way she sees it, the Bush administration is doing plenty, but most Latin Americans just don't know about it."

According to Secretary Rice: ''in some ways we, I guess, don't toot our own horn.”

In other words, on this trip Hughes will not discuss any ways in which U.S. policy might better address the political realities in the region, or ask for Latin American opinions about how to counteract the negative image of the U.S. She will go and say, “We are doing great things, and we want more credit.”

It is very hard to imagine any positive reaction to such a message.

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Demography and Mexican Immigration

The Washington Post has a solid article on the “push” factors in Mexican emigration. Unlike the vast majority of such articles, it addresses demography, albeit only briefly. But even that is a very incomplete picture, for two main reasons. First, as my dad and I argue, you can’t look at Mexican demography in isolation, because increases in the young Mexican population came precisely at a time when the U.S. population was getting older, thus producing what we’re calling a “demographic fit.” Second, that demographic fit is almost over, because—contrary to conventional wisdom—Mexican birth rates have been falling steadily in recent years, and the percentage of young people in the U.S. has been rising.

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Steroids in Baseball

I finished reading Game of Shadows, which was light and fluffy. The overall messages are that steroids are rampant in baseball, MLB is doing as little as possible, and Barry Bonds has been let off lightly. I understand all the BALCO details better now, but I can’t say the book told me a whole lot I didn’t already know.

One less reported outcome of the entire affair is the crackdown on amphetamines, which have been common in baseball for decades. I wonder whether we’ll see any difference, maybe late in the season, when players often use them frequently to recover.

I am also concerned that the Padres may need numerous performance-enhancing drugs to compete this year. There was some spark in today’s comeback victory against the Braves, but lately we’ve just been shelled while scoring no runs. Maybe the West will stay weak enough to win.

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Peru, North Korea, and Violence

Here’s a disturbing story about former Peruvian President (and current candidate once again) Alan García’s creation of a paramilitary group (and very likely more than one) to combat the Shining Path in the late 1980s.

Especially noteworthy is the fact that Peru was sending members of the paramilitary to North Korea for training. Upwards of 1,000 (!) were trained there. I shudder to think what Kim Il Sung’s soldiers were teaching them--ironic that they were being trained to fight Marxist guerrillas. No wonder that Peru’s Truth Commission reported that 69,280 people were killed as a result of political violence in the 1980-2000 period.

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Pollution

A new report reveals that Santiago, Chile has the worst pollution of any Latin American city, even beating out Mexico City. Not the kind of thing you want to be known for, but I know Chileans with young children who go to the coast as many weekends as possible to get them out of that air.

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How Much Do Americans Care About Immigration Reform?

I had mentioned in a previous post that it seems Americans in general are not really very impassioned about the immigration reform debate. A Times/Bloomberg poll published today reflects that same conclusion. I think one of the distinctions people fail to make is that although Americans believe illegal immigration is a problem, a minority (31% according to this particular poll) see it as one of the country’s “major problems.” Marc Cooper has a good discussion about trying to interpret polls on this issue.

I tend to think that those who were proposing enforcement-oriented or enforcement-only policies believed that the country was up in arms, and that their proposals would really resonate. This was a miscalculation, because it helped create the massive rallies we’re seeing all over the country. If the majority of Americans do not care too much about the issue, then there will be no political momentum for a restrictionist bill; on the contrary, there will be tremendous political pressure to pass the opposite. The Senate leadership has already been backpedaling.

Andres Oppenheimer writes that James Sensenbrenner, Lou Dobbs, and Samuel Huntington are the restrictionist “three amigos” who may have actually contributed to the rallies, and thus are partially responsible for the fact that Congress will very likely not pass a restrictionist bill.

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Classes Cancelled

I arrived on campus about 7:45 this morning to find that every building was dark due to a power outage, and my own building (Fretwell) was completely closed due to a manhole explosion that injured four workers (no word yet on their condition). The problem with the power was ultimately deemed so extensive that classes were cancelled for the entire day.

Although I am sure students are perfectly happy to have the day off, I was already a bit behind my lectures (not entirely a bad thing, since much of it is due to class discussions). Maybe now I will have to talk twice as fast to get it all covered...

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More on Coca Sek

In answer to my question in the previous post about why all the sudden hits about Coca Sek, it seems the Los Angeles Times published a story today. What's strange is that it contains nothing new from the story published two months ago. It's just recycled.

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Coca Sek and the Mystery of the Internet

I just happened to notice that throughout the day, this blog has had quite a few hits from people doing searches for Coca Sek (the new cola made with coca), and therefore they are looking at an entry from February. I have no idea why--as far as I know, there have been no new stories on it, though it is entirely possible that I've missed something.

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Second Place in Peru

The second place spot is still too close to call in Peru, though former president Alan García leads Lourdes Flores, 24.6% to 23.4%. It might take two weeks to get a final count. Do they have hanging chads in Peru?

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Potential Leverage of Latino Immigrants

There were immigration rallies held all around the country and/or some worker walk-outs. I think this latter phenomenon is especially interesting. Tyson foods announced it would have to reduce production on Monday because it relied so heavily on immigrant labor. Tyson also said specifically it would not penalize workers who did not come yesterday. In short, Latino immigrant workers have a considerable amount of leverage, something that is occasionally talked about but not often seen in practice.

Thanks to my student Jose Posada, who last year loaned me A Day Without a Mexican, a fake documentary about a mysterious cloud that envelopes California and makes all Mexicans disappear. The state then falls apart. It’s a comedy—and a very corny one at that—but it is thought provoking.

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Election in Peru

Looks like Peru will have a presidential run-off, a result that won’t surprise anyone. Results at this point are the following:

Ollanta Humala: 29-30%
Alan Garcia: 26%
Lourdes Flores: 25%
There are 17 other candidates behind that

Originally, a run-off would take place in May, but apparently it may not happen until June. The campaign until then will be intense, especially if it is Humala-Flores, who stand so starkly apart. The fact that Garcia, a widely disliked ex-president (perhaps not unlike Goni in Bolivia) did so well appears to be related to the fact that he successfully painted himself as a centrist.

This Herald article--like so many others--also has the requisite “wave of leftists” remark. On this issue, check out Boz’s questioning whether Pat Buchanan would be called a leftist in Peru.

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Small vs. Large Conferences

I presented my paper on immigration at SECOLAS yesterday, and like numerous times over the years I was struck by the fact that very often I get the best feedback and discussion at small conferences. I don’t know if other people have the same experience or not. In particular, at large conferences the “questions” frequently are just speeches, intended to highlight the knowledge of the audience members. One time, I had to think quickly about how to respond politely to such a speech—ostensibly directed at my paper—because it contained no question at all. People also seem more relaxed at small conferences, and so are less concerned about betraying their ignorance on a given topic. Yesterday, we were having a great discussion, and suddenly someone mentioned that time was up. An hour and forty-five minutes had really flown by.

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Mexican Politics

Last night’s keynote speaker for the Southeastern Council of Latin American Studies conference was Roderic Camp, a prominent political scientist who has written massively on Mexican politics. Very interesting talk, though there was some sobering food for thought. In Mexico there is general apathy, low adherence to political parties, distrust of politicians, and a general sense that democracy doesn’t work. So far, then, this election is not exciting the Mexican electorate.

Camp argued that like in 2000, independents will play a key role, and how they will shake out is not predictable. As of now, Lopez Obrador still has a lead. La profesora links to a new poll showing Lopez Obrador slipping, and Boz shows some other polling data, arguing that attempts to link Lopez Obrador to Hugo Chavez may account for the slip in the polls. Meanwhile, the NYT discusses how President Fox has been active in attacking Lopez Obrador, presumably as a way to scare middle and upper class voters.

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No Senate Bill

Despite all the nice talk and press conference, the Senate bill collapsed, after Democrats refused to allow votes on a number of amendments. The most prominent was to have the Department of Homeland Security “certify the border was secure” before any guest worker program began. Tough call—that particular amendment is clearly intended to destroy the bill, but Senator McCain claimed the proposed amendments would be voted down, and so it was acceptable to allow a vote.

So we’re back to where we were when I blogged back on February 1.

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New Editor at The Latin Americanist

It is now official—I am going to be the new editor of an academic journal, The Latin Americanist, which is a small but growing journal associated with the Southeastern Council of Latin American Studies. The outgoing editor, Bruce Wilson at the University of Central Florida, has done a lot with it in the past 5-6 years, so that now it has a solid and international readership, and a competitive acceptance rate.

I’m really looking forward to it, and I’ll be very interested to see how it is on the other side, being the person who ultimately decides what will be published. Thus far, like most everyone else, I’ve been in a position of complaining about editors of journals when my own article submissions not been accepted…

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Senate Development

More developments in the Senate, which is now discussing whether to put illegal immigrants into three different categories:

1. Been in the U.S. five years or more: pay fine, learn English, get a background check, and various other requirements, and you can become a legal worker
2. Been in the U.S. between two and five years: go to designated point of entry and apply for temporary worker permit
3. Less than two years: still being debated, but likely you would go back to your home country, then be at the end of the line for a temporary work permit.

There are all sorts of rumors about other possible compromises, but nothing is entirely clear. Frist wants a vote this week, but it is also unclear whether that will happen. If not, senators are leaving this weekend for a two week spring recess, during which time both sides will rally their supporters and try to influence the vote.

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Our Brand is Crisis by Rachel Boynton

Yesterday on campus I had the opportunity to see the documentary Our Brand is Crisis and talk to the director, Rachel Boynton. The timing was perfect, because it was exactly when I teach U.S.-Latin American Relations, so I just had my entire class go. It was a great movie—anyone interested in Latin American politics would find it fascinating. It follows the 2002 presidential campaign of Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada (known as Goni) in Bolivia, and specifically how he used the same James Carville team of consultants that became famous from the Clinton years.

It is a very balanced movie, which lets everyone speak for themselves, but the theme was to question whether it is feasible to bring the U.S.-style of politics to a very poor, politically unstable country. In fact, the consultants did get Goni the victory, but he was forced out soon thereafter, as massive protests would pave the way for Evo Morales to be elected. Anyhow, there was a good Q&A with Rachel Boynton after the screening—she said that when she conceived of the movie, she wondered how to get access to everyone, and a friend recommended just printing up business cards. She did so, which made her look official, and started getting green lights. Not a bad research tip.

Anyone who reads this blog knows I talk a lot about how U.S. actions and words in Latin America (though elsewhere too) often end up having the opposite effect than intended. The movie had a perfect example, from the U.S. ambassador to Bolivia. At one point, the U.S. said that Evo Morales claimed that the U.S. government was trying to kill him. The ambassador reacted by reading a statement, which had the following logic (and I am not making this up).

1. Evo Morales thinks the U.S. wants to assassinate him
2. The only person the U.S. wants to assassinate is Osama bin Laden
3. Evo Morales is thus equating himself with bin Laden
4. Therefore Evo Morales is just like bin Laden

Apparently that statement alone boosted Evo’s numbers, and he said that he hoped the ambassador would keep saying such things.

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More Senate Debate on Immigration

Debate in the Senate continues, certainly more smoothly than I would’ve guessed. Even Frist is differentiating between illegal immigrants who are recently arrived and those who have lived in the U.S. a long time, arguing that the latter deserve to be made legal (thus invoking the buzzword “amnesty”). The sticky point is that he would offer nothing to the former, but there is still much to be decided. Frist wants a vote this week, though there have consistently been delays.

Best quote comes from Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) who says:

"I don't think you need a professor to understand that when you import substantial cheap labor, it displaces American workers.”

I’m still not sure whether to take that as an insult…

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Adding to the blogroll

Bit by bit, I am adding to my blogroll. At some point I will figure out how to organize them by category, of which currently there are three—Latin America, general academia, and baseball. Today I add three in the second category: Signifying Nothing, Poliblog, and vegreville. The first two are political scientists, while the third is anonymous.

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AP-Ipsos Poll on Immigration

Here is another poll (from AP-Ipsos) about American reactions to immigration:

56% favor or somewhat favor allowing illegal immigrants to apply for legal, temporary work status
51% believe illegal immigrants contribute to society
42% believe they are mostly a drain
67% are not confident that a wall would reduce illegal immigration
65% believe that illegal immigrants take jobs that Americans don’t want

This really reiterates the Pew Hispanic Center's poll results, which I discussed a few days ago.

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Opening Day

It’s baseball’s opening day, and the winter wait is finally over. I can’t help but comment on MLB’s newly hatched investigation of steroids. Even Commissioner Selig admits it is largely in response to the book Game of Shadows, which I recently ordered but haven’t received yet (yes, I have the right to read trashy books every once in a while). But last year, I read a very good book called Juicing the Game, by Howard Bryant, which colors my view of the current situation.

Bryant’s main thesis is that MLB—and even Selig himself—launched the steroid era by consciously looking the other way as the massively bulked up Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa made baseball popular again with their home run race in 1998. MLB knew what was going on, but loved the PR boost. Now things have soured, so MLB is suddenly shocked to learn that the steroids issue hasn’t gone away (despite new punishments imposed last year) and launched an investigation headed by George Mitchell, a respected former politician, but someone very close to the owners. The bottom line is that the “holier than thou” line coming from Selig is tough to swallow. As sportswriter Buster Olney writes, “Summon the hounds. Sound the horn. Let the hunt for scapegoats begin.”

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Peru

The Peruvian presidential elections are coming right up (April 9) and Marcela Sanchez at the Washington Post offers a very sobering look. For example:

18% of Peruvians say they live in a democracy
60% say they do not care about democracy or know how to define it

Such disgust leads to presidents like Fujimori, and could potentially lead to Ollanta Humala, who has a Chávez-style background in terms of having led a military rebellion (albeit much smaller) having no political experience, and offering populist-leftist rhetoric. How he would actually govern is anyone’s guess—presidents like Gutierrez in Ecuador and Lula in Brazil were viewed a potentially problematic leftists, then shifted once in office (though the former was forced out) while Chávez, of course, did not shift. The jury remains out on Evo.

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Senate Debate

A quick follow-up to my previous post on the results of the Pew Hispanic Center study, which showed very clearly that Americans do not see building a wall as an effective way of stemming illegal immigration, and tend to view immigration as less pressing than many other issues. These quotes are from yesterday’s senate debate (or, rather, the senate "statements" since there was no real debate).

From Senator Kyl (R-AZ): "So everybody pretends the law can be enforced when they know it can't. The Government doesn't do anything about it, the employers don't do anything about it. America sees that and Americans say: What happens to a country that isn't enforcing its laws and apparently doesn't have the will to do so?

The American people want serious action. I believe that illustrates how concerned they are that we have not been able to control the borders so far.

They favor a proposal to build a 2,000-mile security fence by a 51-to-37 percent margin. That is a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll. "

From Senator Cornyn (R-TX), who actually has been pilloried by the right for his support of a guest worker program: “But I believe with all my heart that what has brought us to this day and this debate on the Senate floor is because Americans are terribly concerned that in a post-9/11 world, we simply do not have control of our borders.”

Perhaps it all comes back to the basics of precisely how surveys are worded. Yesterday, Senators spewed out all kinds of poll results to make their cases--whether they believe them with all their hearts is hard to tell.

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Pew Hispanic Center Poll

Some interesting poll numbers from the Pew Hispanic Center:

Only 9% of Americans believe a wall is the best way to reduce illegal immigration
80% believe Latin American immigrants work very hard
80% believe Latin American immigrants have strong family values
37% believe they often go on welfare
65% believe they do not take jobs Americans want (24% say they do)

The public is very much split on what to do about illegal immigrants already here:

32% say they should be allowed to stay permanently
32% believe they should be granted temporary work status
27% say they should be required to return home
9% didn’t know
There was no option for “return home, then become eligible for temporary work,” which is currently part of the Senate debate.

61% of Americans come across people who do not speak English, but it does not bother them (it bothers 38%).

42% believe President Bush will do the right thing regarding immigration (Republican Party gets 45%, while Democratic Party gets 53%). Local leaders (56%) get even more confidence, even though they have no influence at all on immigration policy (which is federal).

It’s a fascinating report, and these only represent a small fraction of the polling data. I’ll finish with one more, that only 3% of Americans see immigration issues as “the most important problem facing your community.” It ranks tied for last out of 10 potential issues (crime/violence and unemployment rank first). In other words, we’re getting all whipped up over something that the public is not especially concerned about.

I hope to get some of the Senate debate from yesterday—it’s not up on the Senate website yet.

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Blogroll

Thanks to Matthew Shugart, a political scientist at UCSD, for introducing my blog on his own, Fruits and Votes. And he is forgiven for living in San Diego while not becoming a Padres fan.

It occurred to me that I have yet to master the etiquette of the blogosphere, so as I have added things to my own blog, such as the blogroll (just recently, in fact) I have just done so without comment or explaining why. I'll try to start making introductions now as I add more.

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Olive Branch on Immigration?

Speaker of the House Hastert has extended what seems to be an olive branch, saying that the country does need a guest worker program:

“We're not going to discount anything right now. Our first priority is to protect the border. And we also know there is a need in some sections of the economy for a guest-worker program."

That is new, and is the precise opposite of what many House Republicans believe (I’ve seen numbers ranging from 50 to 70 of hard core opponents of the senate bill). So will Hastert be willing to twist the arms of moderate Republicans, join with many (if not most) Democrats, and thereby force the issue? I’ve been pessimistic, but this appears to be a real change. Meanwhile, even George Will is arguing in favor of a guest worker program.

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FARC Indictments

In my U.S.-Latin American Relations class, we had spent some time trying to figure out the reasons why the U.S. government indicted 50 members of the FARC, and the significance of the timing (in other words, why now?). Adam Isacson has a great analysis in Plan Colombia and Beyond, including surprise at how the U.S. alleges that the FARC's control of and profit from the cocaine trade has greatly increased.

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Immigration and Demography

Andres Oppenheimer has a column arguing that to understand immigration, we should forget economists and political scientists, and listen to demographers instead. He’s half right—we should listen to political scientists and demographers together. Coincidentally, the paper I presented at LASA, and which will soon be sent out to a journal, was co-written with my dad, a demographer in the Dept of Geography at San Diego State University (though unfortunately my parents couldn't make it to Puerto Rico with me) . We argue, in a similar vein to Oppenheimer, that understanding the immigration issue requires an analysis combining political science and demography. We’ve been in the middle of what we call a “demographic fit” between the U.S. and Latin America, where we had a need for labor (i.e. we had an aging population), and Latin America had more young people than their economies could sustain. The thing is, this fit is soon ending, because fertility rates are dropping in Latin America, while in the U.S. we’ve been seeing an increase in the number of young people (i.e. 15-24) so our labor needs will more likely be filled from within in the future. We argue that the political debate (and even the timing of the debate) cannot be understood without the demographic angle.

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Senate Immigration Bill

The Senate Judiciary Committee approved its version of immigration reform, which stands in stark contrast to the House version, especially in terms of whether the U.S. should have a guest worker program. I think another one of the many aspects that will spark debate is that the House bill includes construction of a wall, whereas the Senate has a “virtual wall” consisting of technology, like unmanned drones.

It only received 4 of 10 Republican votes in the Judiciary committee, and was immediately attacked by several Republican Senators (see the NYT). In addition, Majority Leader Frist hasn’t yet said whether he would allow the bill to come up for a vote, or whether he would introduce his own bill, which has no guest worker program (e.g. see the Washington Post).

Frist wants to be president, and I assume he figures such a move would resonate with the conservative Republican base, but it’s a risky move.

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Immigration Rally in Charlotte

Here’s a small bit from the local section of today’s Charlotte Observer, regarding the immigration rally held here on Saturday:

Charlotte and Mecklenburg County officials today should receive a letter and a video link showing a lack of visible police presence at the start of Saturday's immigration rally, said William Gheen, president of Americans for Legal Immigration PAC in Raleigh.

Gheen said several officers showed up only after he complained in person at the Charlotte-Mecklenburg Police Department.

CMPD spokesman Keith Bridges didn't return Observer calls for comment. Officers working Sunday said they didn't have information about the number of officers present Saturday. Observers said they saw several officers at the rally.

Between 5,000 and 7,000 people showed up at the rally, and police have said it was peaceful.

So what the group did was to film the rally, then complain that CMPD didn’t send enough cops. The guy actually went in person to the police department to demand more of a police presence. There are several things I’m trying to figure out here. First, since this rally (like all the others around the country) was peaceful, it seems that no more police were needed. Second, if they wanted illegal immigrants in the crowd arrested, then they would need federal authorities, not the CMPD, and it would mean intentionally creating a riot. Third, exactly what point are they trying to make?

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Immigration Rally

Here’s an informative article in the LA Times about the very impressive rally in Los Angeles, which drew at least 500,000 in protest of the House version of immigration reform. There have been other similar protests around the country, some with decent numbers (though nothing like a half million). I knew the rally was coming up, but I must admit I was surprised at big it was (and pleased at how peaceful it was).

I’m not sure how much it will affect politicians with very few Latinos in their districts, but it will add yet another layer of complexity to the issue for many who do not want to alienate Latino voters (or who just think enforcement alone won’t work). The NYT had previously done a profile of Sen. John Cornyn, a conservative Republican from Texas, who has a 100% rating from the American Conservative Union but is being called a “sellout” and “not a true conservative” because he supports a guest worker program.

I’ll continue following and commenting on the debate, which begins this week.

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El Salvador

The Washington Post discusses the Salvadoran contribution to the Iraq war—the last Latin American country to remain. Presidents from ARENA—El Salvador’s conservative party—have enjoyed close ties with the Bush administration. Even more relevant is the fact that El Salvador depends heavily upon remittances, and therefore needed the Bush administration to extend temporary legal status for 220,000 undocumented Salvadorans, and in general assure that Salvadoran immigration is not curtailed. The administration agreed to the extension just two weeks after President Saca announced that he would be sending another contingent of soldiers.

All the hoopla about the supposed leftward tilt in Latin America ignores Central America, where with some exceptions we often see governments that are closer ideologically to the U.S.

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Top 100 Padres

Friar Faithful is starting a very nicely done list of the top 100 San Diego Padres, with a discussion of each player and access to stats. Anyone with even a bare knowledge of the Padres knows this is a countdown to Tony Gwynn, because there is no way #1 could be anyone else. The top 10 would be tough to sort out, though I would probably go for Trevor Hoffman as #2. I’ll be curious about where my second favorite Padre shows up, namely John Kruk. I was really disappointed when he went to the Phillies in 1989.

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George Washington

I just finished listening to the unabridged version of Joseph Ellis’ His Excellency: George Washington. I like Ellis’ work on the revolutionary era, because it is well-written and accessible. His goal with Washington was to get past the popular image of the distant icon and figure out his motivations. Therefore there are times when he is making educated guesses, but it makes for interesting reading. Or in this case, listening—I often listen to books on CD when driving.

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WBC

I had thought Cuba was allowed to participate in the WBC after agreeing that any proceeds would be donated to Katrina victims, and apparently so did Fidel and the entire Cuban team. But now Major League Baseball is denying that claim, saying the agreement was that Cuba would get no proceeds of any kind, and that no donations could be made in its name.

Interestingly, the Bush administration doesn’t want anyone from baseball making a donation: “U.S. officials say privately that the Bush administration would react angrily if MLB ends up making a donation from the tournament's proceeds to a Katrina charity.” So it’s not just Cuba. I suppose any such high profile donation would only serve to highlight further the poor response to the disaster.

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Cuba and Hamas

Thanks to my brother for pointing out this Op-Ed piece in the NYT, comparing Hamas to Cuba in terms of international response. For well over 40 years, the U.S. has insisted that the best way to effect change in Cuba is to isolate it, a policy that has proved to be a failure. The question is whether isolation of Hamas would be any more effective. It is a difficult issue, given Hamas’ origins and past, because establishing some sort of relationship could seem like validation of its tactics.

But U.S. efforts at isolating Fidel Castro have tended to strengthen his position domestically, and to grant him martyr status. It also gives him something to blame when the economy turns sour. The same dynamic may end up being true for Hamas as well.

One thing the article does not note is the contradictory nature of U.S. policy, which asserts that isolation will change Cuba, but that engagement will change China, Vietnam, and other former enemies.

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Latin American Armies

It’s curious that in the past few days I’ve read reports of different Latin American armies suffering from low morale. First it was in Colombia, where Uribe tends to wield a big stick, using presidential prerogative to fire generals when scandals pop up. Army leaders are particularly annoyed that he uses the press to blame them as he does so.

Now NTKLA references a story about the Brazilian army, as low pay and lack of equipment are leading people to leave in droves, and have led (directly or indirectly) to the suicide of two generals.

I wouldn’t ascribe too much importance to this yet, but it is never good for militaries to feel ignored and abused. At LASA, David Pion-Berlin and Harold Trinkunas presented an interesting paper on why civilians in Latin America show so little interest in defense issues. The phenomenon means that the armed forces may be building resentment against what they perceive as unqualified civilian authorities.

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Another Chávez Speech

Hugo Chávez repeated once again his concern about a U.S. invasion, but has added a new twist. He asserted that Venezuelans, in conjunction with other unspecified revolutionaries, would come to the aid of any other Latin American country that was invaded, which refers largely to Cuba.

Meanwhile, he also continues his policy of selling oil to specific parts of countries that might be more sympathetic to him, such as FMLN-governed cities in El Salvador, but also Democratic districts in Massachusetts.

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You know you're having a bad Monday when...

...you get off the phone with US Air, only to be told that your suitcase has still not been found after almost two days. Then you get into the car, and less than 10 minutes later you’re parked in front of a cop for going 45 in a 35, with your son saying, "Wow, look at the police car lights."

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Immigration Debate Heating Up

Charlotte’s own Sue Myrick and Patrick McHenry are at the forefront of a group of House Republicans who want to make clear that they reject the McCain-Kennedy immigration reform bill, which is now sitting in the Judiciary Committee.

The politics of the matter do not augur well for a real solution. Senate Majority Leader Frist has said he wants a quick vote, and threatened to bypass the Committee entirely if it didn’t speed up its debate. Frist is looking to 2008, and since he believes a guest worker program is unpopular with conservatives, he is opposing it (whether it is really unpopular with all conservative voters is, I think, debatable). On the House side, with more than 70 Republicans signing the letter, there will be a major showdown if the Senate manages to pass a bill that includes guest workers.

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Puerto Rico

I am now back from the LASA conference in Puerto Rico, and have come home to a mountain of work. San Juan was beautiful, especially the old part of the city, but it was incredibly expensive. I had just been in Paris, and San Juan even seemed pricey by comparison.

LASA now says it won't have another conference in the U.S. until the policy toward Cuban scholars changes. Rumors abounded about where it would go next--maybe Canada, which would be great, because I've never been to either Montreal or Toronto.

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Professors and the FBI

Here’s a disturbing story of a Latin American History professor at Ponoma College being questioned by the FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Force about his connections to the Venezuelan community, since he has been a critic of U.S. policy. They said they wanted to “develop a profile of the Venezuelan community in the U.S.” The agents even talked to some of his students.

It seems there is no end to the ham handed tactics we’re using with regard to Venezuela. I hit on this topic all the time, but it bears repeating—nearly all our strategies for dealing with Hugo Chávez ultimately make him stronger, not weaker. He is able to portray himself as a victim of U.S. policy, which enhances his self-proclaimed role as the new Bolívar, standing firm against the U.S.

It also makes me wonder about all the post 9/11 intelligence reform, when what we have are FBI agents bumbling around college campuses.

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NCAA

Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't remember all three of my alma maters being in the tournament at the same time - Cal, SDSU, and Carolina. Very cool.

Roll on you bears.

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Poll Numbers

I got back from France last night, and am very behind in reading both news and blogs. But here are some poll numbers from BBB. Of particular note is that approval ratings of President Chávez has experienced a drop, though his support remains strong. I think an interesting question would be how closely his ratings are tied to oil prices.

In presidential campaigns, Lopez Obrador continues to lead the race among presidential candidates in Mexico, while in Peru former president Alan García has stayed pretty strong, despite how widely his presidency (1985-1990) was viewed as a failure. At various times I've read that Alberto Fujimori, now sitting in a Chilean prison, would still receive a solid percentage of votes, despite having fled to Japan in disgrace.

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The ICC and Latin America

There's a good Op-Ed piece in the Washington Post about U.S. policy regarding the International Criminal Court and how it affects Latin America. We deny certain types of aid to countries that ratify the ICC but refuse to grant waivers for U.S. citizens (i.e. to ensure they cannot be tried by the ICC for some alleged crime). The article highlights the fact that we're punishing allies, thus further damaging our already poor relations with much of Latin America. But even more interesting is that the Defense Department is openly saying the policy is bad and should be changed.

Since the policy is intended largely to help the Pentagon--because U.S. soldiers are deemed most likely to be potentially arrested--then it is all the more absurd that anyone would support it after the Pentagon said quite clearly that the policy is counterproductive.

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France Trivia

Although in the U.S. we see the high profile protests in France against U.S. businesses, it was in France where the "hypermarket" (a la Wal-Mart) was created in 1963. The opposition to big business in the U.S. is actually the same type of conflict that's been going on in France for over 40 years.

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LASA and Cuba Part II

I mentioned a few days ago that the U.S. government has denied Cubans visas to come to the LASA meetings, and only belatedly realized that a Cuban was supposed to be on my panel, so it even affects me directly. It's still not clear to me how a professor studying Cuban demography has become a national security threat.

I must admit the meetings in Puerto Rico seem very distant, since it is a crisp, clear, beautiful, and cold morning here in Bourron Marlotte, a French village about an hour outside Paris.

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France

Tonight we're off to France for spring break to visit my brother and his family. Having a 4 year old and an 18 month old on an overnight flight should be quite an adventure.

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Student Life

I just finished reading My Freshman Year, by Rebekah Nathan (a pseudonym) an anthropology professor who registered as a freshman to see what current student life is like. I’m not putting it on my list on the side of the blog, because I don’t think it revealed much that isn’t mostly obvious. Her main conclusion is that students have many competing issues they have to deal with (classes, jobs, relationships, clubs, family, etc.) and so they constantly have to juggle and prioritize. Wait, does this mean that my class is not the most important thing in my students’ lives? What a letdown.

One conclusion I did find interesting, however, is that universities strive to create a sense of community, but then encourage student participation in a massively wide variety of activities that spread students thin and therefore end up decreasing that sense of community.

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Women and Latin American Politics

I’ve noted before that the much-vaunted “tilt to the left” in Latin America is vastly oversimplified, and an article in the Miami Herald details what I see as a more interesting story, namely the political rise of women. The article also mentions the quotas in some legislatures, which reserve seats for women (there was a good article about this in Journal of Politics not too long ago as well). This does not mean that women will suddenly be elected all over the region, but I wonder whether an updated version of the “domino theory” might apply, as people see that women are effective presidents and therefore become more willing to vote for a female candidate in their own country.

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LASA and Cuba

In two weeks I am off to Puerto Rico for the Latin American Studies Association conference (I am presenting a paper on immigration). Continuing the theme of politics based on spite, the NYT reports that, like the last meeting, the U.S. government is refusing to allow any Cubans to attend. There is just no legitimate reason for doing so. It's just another policy equivalent of the U.S. government sticking its collective tongue out at Fidel.

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New Report on Coca Cultivation

The State Department released this year’s International Narcotics Control Strategy Report. It reveals an increase in the amount of coca cultivation, demonstrating yet again that U.S. drug policy is a failure. The foundation of this policy is that if cultivation decreases, then the price of cocaine will increase, which will in turn lead fewer people to buy it because it’s so expensive. Despite billions of dollars, massive aerial herbicide spraying, crop substitution efforts, manual crop destruction, and beefed up military patrols, the cultivation of coca continues. In the context of supply and demand, the U.S. focuses mostly on supply, while demand (i.e. Americans taking large amounts of cocaine) is barely addressed.

See here for a very good discussion of the report and its implications. My U.S.-Latin America students should recognize the author of the blog—Adam Isacson of the Center for International Policy is also the author of an assigned chapter in the book Drugs and Democracy in Latin America: The Impact of U.S. Policy. Or at least I hope you’ve read it, since the midterm is today…

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The Governator

I couldn’t resist this. My mom is a local elected official in San Diego, and recently met the man himself, Arnold Schwarzenegger.

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Illegal Immigration in the South

The State of Mississippi just released a report about the economic impact of illegal immigrants. Such reports are proliferating—last month the Kenan-Flagler Business School issued one on North Carolina. The problem with these studies, however, is that they are based almost entirely on guesswork, then claim to pinpoint the economic impact exactly.

The Mississippi report is so bad it’s embarrassing. These are the words of the State Auditor on the cover letter:

“The most significant finding of this report is Mississippi’s inability to accurately quantify the costs of illegal immigrants because most state agencies, schools and other government entities do not currently document the actual number of illegal immigrants or their use of services.

The report does fairly estimate the net financial impact of illegal immigrants in Mississippi to be more than $25 million a year.”

Huh? There is no way to quantify the impact, so we’re going to pull a number out of a hat and pretend it means something. I guarantee that the students in my senior seminar will all turn in a paper of higher quality than this.

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