Ideology and popularity

Adam Isacson links to a report by a Mexican polling firm, which discusses the approval ratings of presidents across the region. It's been a rough year, as on average approval has dropped 10 points. Here is the list:

1. 84% Álvaro Uribe, Colombia (3/08)
2. 61% Felipe Calderón, Mexico (5/08)
3. 55% Antonio Saca, El Salvador (5/08)
4. 55% Evo Morales, Bolivia (5/08)
5. 55% Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, Brazil (3/08)
6. 54% Hugo Chávez, Venezuela (4/08)
7. 53% Rafael Correa, Ecuador (6/08)
8. 51% Martín Torrijos, Panama (4/08)
9. 49% Álvaro Colom, Guatemala (3/08)
10. 45% Tabaré Vázquez, Uruguay (3/08)
11. 44% Oscar Arias, Costa Rica (4/08)
12. 44% Michelle Bachelet, Chile (6/08)
13. 38% Manuel Zelaya, Honduras (2/08)
14. 34% Stephen Harper, Canada (3/08)
15. 32% Alan García, Peru (6/08)
16. 30% George W. Bush, United States (6/08)
17. 26% Cristina Fernández, Argentina (5/08)
18. 21% Daniel Ortega, Nicaragua (2/08)
19. 5% Nicanor Duarte, Paraguay (3/08)

Despite all the elections of left-leaning presidents, the top three are actually conservative. Nonetheless, a majority (5 of 8) of those over 50% are on the left. Further, of the bottom three, two are on the left. It seems, then, that there is currently no clear link between ideology and popularity.

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Uribe needs a vacation

President Uribe's advisors say he does not plan for the referendum to extend his current term, which ends in 2010. It seems mostly to be about being angry at the Supreme Court, which is calling into question the legitimacy of the 2006 election. This raises a host of new questions.

--Yesterday I speculated that this was a back door to another term, or at least partial term. If this is definitely not true, why doesn't Uribe himself say so? That would dampen much of the speculation.

--If this goes through, would congressional elections also be repeated? This is what the president of the Congress suggests

--Does such a referendum have a legal basis?

--Even if it does, is it worth all the money, hassle, and confusion?

--Finally, why does he make such a declaration at midnight? He needs a vacation.

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Brilliant!

Alvaro Uribe wants a new election. We all knew that. Now he's figured out a possible way to do it.

"I am going to convene Congress so that it can produce as swiftly as possible legislation on a referendum, that would call the people to repeat the 2006 presidential election," Mr Uribe said in a nationally broadcast radio and television address.

The decision relates to former Congresswoman Yidis Medina, who says she changed her vote to reform the constitution in exchange for jobs for her supporters.

Details remain scant, but I take this to represent a way for Uribe to get re-elected once more without having to reform the constitution yet again. El Tiempo has a similar take. Uribe says he wants to “repeat” the 2006 election, but we can’t go back in time two years, so it would seem that this election would “replace” the last one, and give him a few extra years in office.

It’s absolutely Putinesque. He needs Congress to go along, of course, so it’ll be interesting to see what the reaction is.

See Boz as well.

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Booing the home team

I have not been blogging much about baseball, and especially not about the Padres, whose season has been miserable (with the exception of some bright spots like Adrian Gonzalez). Suddenly, however, there has been a lot of chatter about the booing that ensued after Trevor Hoffman gave up back to back dingers on Tuesday.

The Sacrifice Bunt notes all the players' reactions, and comes down hard on Bud Black for blaming the entire city. Left Coast Bias says we need to respect Trevor for everything he's done for us in the past. An article in the San Diego Union-Tribune asks, "Think Philly or Boston fans would sit by and watch their baseball team play .410 ball and not boo?"

I wouldn't boo Trevor Hoffman, but I do think a crappy team needs to have a thicker skin. Fans that boo in Philadelphia are "colorful" and players expect it, while fans that boo in San Diego are called whiners, and players can't handle it.

It does raise an interesting question. Do fans owe anything to players? I've really enjoyed watching Trevor Hoffman over the years and have a reservoir of good will, so don't feel like booing even if he has a bad outing. Yet I don't feel that I am somehow required not to do so.

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Goodreads

I am going to experiment with Goodreads, which I stumbled upon as I lurked around Prof. Marvin King’s blog Black Political Analysis (yes, I sometimes lurk around other political science blogs). I put the link on the side bar.

It is like Facebook or other similar sites, except it is focused on books. You can see what I am reading, what I am thinking of reading, and what I’ve read—for me, it’s a fun way to keep track of books, and to write snippet reviews. You then make “friends” and see what they’re reading. I am, sad to say, completely friendless at this point.

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Chinese socialism and Cuba

Fidel met with a Chinese official, where he emphasized the "importance of the concept of socialism with Chinese characteristics." Does that mean he wants to open a Hooters? Maybe it means he's got a hankering for Dunkin' Donuts. Or Taco Bell. Writing his Granma column gets tiring, so he might just want a latte.

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Revista de Ciencia Política

I would encourage everyone to check out the latest issue of the Chilean journal Revista de Ciencia Política. It is the "Anuario Política de América Latina" so the articles focus on each country, analyzing politics in 2007. The articles (with full text) are in Spanish, but abstracts are also in English. In general, I really like RCP and check it out regularly.

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Another brick in the wall

The Supreme Court refused to hear a case (which I mentioned here) challenging the constitutionality of waiving dozens of laws in order to build a border fence. Fourteen members of Congress supported the petition.

I loved the response from the Department of Homeland Security:

Chertoff told Congress that the DHS would be unable to meet its goal "if we were to engage in each of the individual regulatory elements" that the statutes required.

In other words, "if we have to abide by the law, we can't do it the way we want."

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Chilean presidential candidates

Michelle Bachelet pushed through a new education bill, and it turns out that José Miguel Insulza had to call a few members of the legislature to twist arms. They wanted Ricardo Lagos to do the same, but somehow he was unable because he was on his way to Canada. I couldn’t help wonder if this news tidbit was an intentional boost for the former and slap on the latter, especially since Bachelet is not happy at being blamed for things like Transantiago that started under Lagos’ watch, and Lagos has not stepped up to accept any responsibility.

Both are contenders to be the Concertación’s next presidential candidate (the election is in 2009). Pato Navia argues here that the position is Lagos’ to lose. He’s popular, sufficiently leftist for the left, and sufficiently moderate for moderates. Pato also discusses former president Frei, who is also in the mix, but questions whether he can generate enough enthusiasm.

Lastly, there is Soledad Alvear, who bowed out in favor of Bachelet the last time around. A question that comes up when I am talking with other Chileanists is whether being a woman will hurt her, since the current president is a woman and not very popular. I think this is a strong possibility, but have not seen polls.

I would just say that it is a sad state of affairs that two of the contenders are former presidents. However, I understand the strategic calculation. Bachelet was a new face, and her administration is not going well, so the official reaction is to circle the wagons and advance a familiar figure. But where is the rejuvenation of the Concertación?

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FARC'd

The FARC has released a video to show that one of the politicians they kidnapped is still alive and to repeat demands of a safe haven and a prisoner exchange. What struck me is that the situation has changed so drastically, yet the FARC sticks stubbornly to its tried-and-true tactics. Uribe has said he won't negotiate, and with recent military victories very likely won't except for some exceptional circumstance. But further, Hugo Chávez has also told the FARC that its tactics are actually beneficial to the United States government, so they should lay down their arms and participate in the political system.

In short, it's very hard to see this video as accomplishing anything except to confirm the FARC's image as a band of thugs.

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Cementing a relationship Part 3

After all the debate about nationalization in Venezuela, I decided to keep up with the cement industry because there was so much confusion surrounding it. Here’s the last installment from May.

Hugo Chávez wanted to decree that the cement companies negotiate a takeover (with the state holding a 60% stake) within 60 days or face expropriation. He requested that the Supreme Court rule on the question of whether the decree would constitute an organic law. Article 302 of the constitution stipulates that only organic law brings industries of national interest into the possession of the state. Here is the relevant part of the constitution:

El Estado se reserva, mediante la ley orgánica respectiva, y por razones de conveniencia nacional, la actividad petrolera y otras industrias, explotaciones, servicios y bienes de interés público y de carácter estratégico. El Estado promoverá la manufactura nacional de materias primas provenientes de la explotación de los recursos naturales no renovables, con el fin de asimilar, crear e innovar tecnologías, generar empleo y crecimiento económico, y crear riqueza y bienestar para el pueblo.

Not surprisingly, the Supreme Court ruled in his favor a few days ago. Soon thereafter, the decree was officially printed in the Gaceta Oficial and the 60 day clock started ticking.

There is no explanation for why this happened now, though the most logical conclusion is that the cement companies are fighting it tooth and nail and therefore are trying to find weaknesses in the government's legal foundation. Chávez is getting tired of waiting, so the decree polishes up his legal case and speeds up the process.

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Victor Hinojosa's Domestic Politics and International Narcotics Control

I read Victor Hinojosa’s Domestic Politics and International Narcotics Control: U.S. Relations with Mexico and Colombia, 1989-2000. I put it on the side bar but it is currently only in hardback at over $100 a pop, so you’ll need to get to the library (with any luck it will be released in paperback).

The central question is why the U.S. treated Colombia and Mexico differently with regard to drug certification. Conceptually, it draws on Robert Putnam and others who have written about “two-level games,” i.e. the ways in which domestic politics and international politics intersect. Based on the academic literature, he comes up with four sets of hypotheses, based on electoral tests (whether a president is facing elections), presidential popularity, executive-legislative relations, and the reputation of the Colombian president. He then studies 24 different U.S.-Mexico and U.S.-Colombia negotiations to test these hypotheses.

Through the course of that analysis, hypothesis after hypothesis is discarded. For example, presidential approval ratings don’t matter much. Presidents Clinton and Zedillo followed certain policies regardless of their numbers, which varied over their presidencies. The reputation of the Colombian president did matter, at least in terms of how Ernesto Samper was treated. Hinojosa argues that he did at least as much or more to fight drug trafficking (especially in the way the U.S. wanted) than someone like César Gaviria, but was treated poorly nonetheless because of his reputation as someone who had been tied to drug cartels. The U.S. president’s relationship with Congress did seem to matter with regard to Colombia, but not to Mexico, likely because of geography. There are far fewer costs involved with punishing Colombia because it does not share a border, and members of Congress are aware of that.

It may sound odd to praise a book that finds so many hypotheses not working. But the conclusions force us to go beyond the simple idea of “intermestic” policy making, referring to domestic influences on foreign policy.* At least with regard to drugs, when viewed from a comparative perspective, there are few clear patterns.

The narrative is well done, and provides a good sense of how the drug trade and its effects increased U.S. interest in Colombia and pushed funding ever upwards. My only complaint is that it is a rather brief book—each case could’ve easily been expanded a bit.

* For a very good book examining intermestic policies, check out Russell Crandall’s Driven by Drugs: U.S. Policy Toward Colombia.

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Glass half overflowing

The UN reports that coca cultivation has increased in Bolivia (5%), Colombia (27%) and Peru (5%). The U.S. government, however, retorts that this is a really good sign. Why? Follow the twisted path of drug policy logic.

John Walters, head of the Office of National Drug Control Policy, argues that if coca production goes up, it means farmers are planting more because the Colombian government’s eradication efforts are so successful. More pressure means more planting.

This is the same John Walters who, in 2003, said that the decrease of coca cultivation in Colombia represented a “turning point.”

John Walters in 2008: “The cocaine industry is under stress,'' said John Walters, director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy. ``It can't produce at the same level.''

John Walters in 2003: “We are seeing evidence of stress in the Colombian cocaine industry. Some farmers are abandoning coca cultivation in major coca growing areas.”

The lesson here should be obvious to anyone, and it’s wonderful news. No matter what we do, or how coca cultivation rises and falls, we’re winning the drug war!

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Late excuses

Professors have heard every imaginable excuse from students about why something is being turned in late. Choice offers up an editorial about how professors are guilty of the same when asked to do book reviews.

That every one of these excuse makers (er, reviewers) has been the recipient of myriad student excuses over the years is not lost on us, and we are confident that, in offering up their own excuses, they are pleased to be on the delivering end of the deed. We applaud them all and ask that they get the review to us as soon as they can.

h/t The Little Professor

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You know U.S.-Latin American relations are bad when...

...a president-elect (in this case Fernando Lugo of Paraguay) feels compelled to say that there is no "axis of evil" in Latin America. Any presidential trip that includes Bolivia, Ecuador, and Venezuela must have a diabolical plan to threaten the United States behind it.

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Jorge Castañeda's Ex Mex: From Migrants to Immigrants

Jorge Castañeda’s Ex Mex: From Migrants to Immigrants is a very good analysis of the current immigration debate, and is particularly interesting since he has been participating in the academic side of the debate for years and so is conversant with the literature, but also of course was Foreign Minister right after George W. Bush was elected and through 9/11, so was a participant at a critical moment.

Naturally, a good part of the book takes aim at the absurdities of U.S. immigration policy, especially the so often repeated notion that this is simply a matter of law.

The laws that have alternately authorized and prohibited immigration, or the rules that have always allowed and encouraged it? How do the Lou Dobbses of the world want young Mexicans, whose ancestors, over four or five generations, have been migrating in one fashion or another to the United States, to understand and abide by what has largely been an American fiction, i.e., that the United States, being a nation of laws, has always dealt with this issue respecting the laws? (37-38).

Toward the end of the book he also outlines the Mexican government’s stance on immigration. It can be summed up as follows: if the U.S. is willing to enact comprehensive reform—including a temporary worker program—then the Mexican government is (or at least has been--of course he no longer speaks for the Mexican government) willing to take on the responsibility of helping to coordinate it. Thus far, that has been the job of Mexican states, and the federal government has not been involved. The government would also work to stop people from leaving, as long as it knew that there was a reasonable way to cross legally. These changes would constitute a major shift in Mexican immigration policy.

However, as long as the U.S. refuses to pass such reform, the Mexican government will continue to protect its own citizens as best it can. He writes that the Mexican government’s decision to issue IDs (matrículas) to Mexicans in the U.S. was consciously intended to promote legalization, making it easier for Mexicans to open bank accounts, rent apartments, buy homes, etc. in the United States. The book’s title refers to the fact that U.S. policy has sharply curtailed circularity, so that more and more Mexicans are choosing to stay, legally or illegally, and so the Mexican government plans to work for the benefit of its expats.

He appreciates President Bush’s general attitude toward immigration, and sees him as someone who genuinely cared about the issue, but that he just would not take advantage of available opportunities for reform:

He allowed his right wing to dominate the agenda, and…he will be remembered in Mexico, and by many Latinos, as “el president del muro”: the man who tried to
build the wall (164-165).

Unfortunately, this will likely be true.

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Uribe and a third term Part 3

The rumors of whether Alvaro Uribe will seek a third term are constantly swirling (see parts 1 and 2). Now Luis Carlos Villegas, the head of an important industrial group, who greatly admires Uribe, says he should not try to run again. Even though believes Uribe is the best president Colombia has ever had, he argues that staying in power would be "dangerous" for the country.

This is the sort of voice that will be necessary to convince Uribe to step aside, a political ally reminding Uribe that he is not indispensable, that staying in power too long is bad for the country, and that democracies require, as he puts it, "renovación."

But will he listen?

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Cuba policy

In March I noted that George Will didn't know much about Cuba. Now we find out that Dick Cheney gets his information about Cuba from George Will.

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How the fence doesn't work

Marc Cooper has a great article in LA Weekly about continued and successful efforts to get across the U.S.-Mexico border. For example:

What was remarkable is that we ran into this particular group barely a two-minute drive from the just-constructed, 15-foot-high multimillion-dollar fence that is a showcase of the Bush administration’s vaunted Secure Border Initiative. The same wall that both parties in Congress have recently embraced as the answer to stemming illegal immigration. Moreover, the group we found — right off the main road leading from the official U.S. port of entry at Sasabe — was but a few clicks away from one of the nine highly touted prototype electronic-surveillance towers that the U.S. government paid the Boeing Company $20 million to build along a 28-mile run of the border.

In other words, the small group of migrants we spoke to had not only just jumped the newest section of the government’s physical fence, they had also dodged the high-tech “virtual fence,” loaded with the latest gadgets and software.

“We got over the fence with a rope,” said the migrant who had flagged us down. “It took about two minutes and we were over.”

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Mortgage quiz

From today’s Charlotte Observer.

--Who buys only a home they can afford?

--Who is extremely conscientious about making the mortgage payment each month?

--Who buys a home to live in as opposed to trying to flip it quickly for a profit?

--Who forecloses at a lower rate than the rest of the population?

The answer: undocumented immigrants.

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Juxtaposition

President Bush signed an executive order forcing all companies doing business with the federal government to check their employees through E-Verify.

The policy, which initially applies to new hires, eventually could affect millions of federal contract workers nationwide whose jobs range from serving cafeteria food to launching NASA spacecraft.

AND

The FBI’s system of doing background check on immigrants cannot handle the strain.

The FBI system for performing background checks on immigrants has become so overloaded since the Sept. 11 attacks that thousands of legal immigrants are waiting years to get into the United States or obtain citizenship, according to findings from an internal investigation released Monday.

The Justice Department's inspector general concluded that the FBI's National Name Check Program is working with outdated technology, and that poorly trained personnel and overworked supervisors are falling far behind. As of March, there was a backlog of 327,000 requests for names to be validated, some of which had been pending for up to three years.

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For all you Charlotte readers out there

Tomorrow evening (Wed, June 11) I will be at the Latin American Coalition as part of its film series to show the film "Missing." I will give an intro to the movie, and there will be a short discussion afterward as well. It starts at 6:30, and is located at:

4949 Albemarle Road
Charlotte, NC 28205

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Chavez and the FARC

Hugo Chávez has called for the FARC to release all its hostages and lay down its arms.

"You in the FARC should know something," Chávez said in the broadcast of his Sunday television program, during which he also called on the rebels to release dozens of hostages, including three American military contractors. "You have become an excuse for the empire to threaten all of us," he said, using his term for the United States.

I should first point out that Chávez’s reasoning is wrong, because the U.S. is not terribly concerned with the FARC except insofar as it is involved in the drug trade. Even if the FARC gives up its war, the U.S. will still be heavily involved in Colombia, possibly even with a base. However, if this provides some measure of political cover, then great.

So what are the possible reasons for his statement? Here are some ideas, and of course they are not mutually exclusive:

--he thought in the past that the FARC was at least strong enough to continue forcing a stalemate, and now believes it will eventually lose

--he wants to put himself in the eventual position of helping to negotiate a peace deal between the FARC and the Colombian government

--his stated position about the FARC (i.e. ideological brotherhood) was costing him too much in approval terms, especially domestically

--the information on the FARC laptops is damaging and so he wants to preempt further revelations

--the links between Venezuelans and the FARC (e.g. see Boz’s discussion and links on the latest news about an alleged National Guard member) are making his government look weak and corrupt

--he wants to send a positive signal to the next president of the U.S., especially if it is Obama

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More on Venezuela's intelligence law

Even before I had to chance to see the text of the new intelligence law, Hugo Chávez says it will be rewritten. As I wrote before, it is a terrible idea to write an intelligence law in secret and then decree it. It was a political misstep for Chávez, as he should have known it would not simply be accepted.*

Chávez has thus named a new commission to “correct” the law, though the news release did not indicate who would be on it. Will the “correction” be similarly decreed?

This episode highlights problems with lawmaking by decree. On the one hand, it’s good that Chávez had the sense to back off in the face of criticism. On the other hand, this is not how laws should be made in a democracy, with the executive concocting something in private and then presenting it fait accompli, only to scrap it if there is protest.

* As a side note, recent reform of intelligence services in some other Latin American countries has indeed been largely ignored by the public. The degree of political polarization in Venezuela, however, makes it different.

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King Tiger 5K

We ran the King Tiger 5K this morning, and nowadays with three kids we both have to push a jogger stroller (one double and one single). It was a nice, relatively flat course, and we both won our respective baby jogger divisions. It is not officially summer yet, but it is really hot.

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More for Bachelet to deal with

The Bachelet administration negotiated the end to a trucker’s strike, accepting the demand for an elimination of diesel taxes. Some truckers, however, reject the government’s plan to cut the taxes only 80% in 2008, and then eliminate them entirely in 2009, and claim they will continue unless the government cuts them 100% immediately. The strike was starting to have a major impact, including the inability to get food onto supermarket shelves and oxygen into hospitals. The government had already announced a $1 billion subsidy to address rising fuel costs.

No doubt Bachelet was looking at how the prolonged farmer’s strike has been hurting the Fernández government next door, not to mention at her own very shaky approval numbers. She desperately needed to look decisive, because with previous strikes (especially students) she was roundly criticized for dithering around.

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For Cuban Missile Crisis buffs

The National Security Archive is releasing some of the primary documents used for a new book on the Cuban Missile Crisis. I must say I am not sure if I am ready for another book on the topic, but you never know. Newly declassified documents often provide interesting insight and good reading. The main tidbit is that the Soviet Union planned to destroy Guantánamo with nuclear-tipped cruise missiles if the U.S. invaded Cuba.

Fidel has a lot of time on his hands, so I think he should do a review in his Granma column.

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U.S. policy: waiting for disease and death

A WSJ editorial trumpets that Colombia helps prove that only a military solution successfully combats “terror” by noting the deaths of FARC leaders. Now, there is certainly no doubt that military operations are having an important and significant impact. The problem is assuming they are the sole impact.

What I’m getting at here is that the U.S. relies much more on good old Mother Nature than we like to admit. Tirofijo was really old and died of a heart attack. A demobilized member of the FARC says that Mono Jojoy has a serious problem with diabetes (more specifically, “jodido por el diabetes”). Fidel Castro famously has diverticulitis, and Raúl is marching his way toward octogenarianhood.

At the very least, we should ponder why, despite military and other solutions, some of our proclaimed enemies are simply dying of old age. Adam Isacson has brought up this point as well. Tirofijo’s death isn’t a victory in any conventional sense of the word—he was getting old and lived in the jungle. And eventually, unless you’re Strom Thurmond, you die.

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Venezuelan intelligence

Hugo Chávez used decree power to revamp Venezuela’s intelligence services. I published an article not long ago about the military and intelligence reform in Argentina, Chile, and Peru, noting the military autonomy that remains. Nonetheless, for all three cases there was at least extensive debate, and decree power was not utilized. Intelligence reform should be as public as possible.

I want to see the text of the law itself, but I haven’t been able to find it. It is Decree 6.067 and was published in the Gaceta Oficial number 38.940. At the moment, however, the website for the Gaceta Oficial is not working.

As I was poking around, I came across the main site for Venezuela’s military intelligence—the Dirección General de Inteligencia Militar. I have to say it is creepy for a military intelligence site to have multiple links where citizens are encouraged to provide anonymous “denuncias.”

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Thomas O'Brien's Making the Americas

If you want a well-researched and highly readable history of U.S.-Latin American Relations, check out Thomas F. O’Brien’s Making the Americas: The United States and Latin America from the Age of Revolutions to the Era of Globalization. It is history, so the 1990s and beyond are covered only in the last of ten chapters, but the contemporary relevance of the historical analysis is always very apparent. I've put it on my "Good Books" sidebar.

“The central argument of this work is that over the past two centuries the people of the United States have envisioned themselves on a global mission of reform” (p. 4). From the beginning, U.S. policy makers, bankers, investors, travel writers, professors, philanthropists, tourists, soldiers, evangelists, etc. came to the idea that Latin America could be “fixed” with superior North American solutions. Although the specific nature of that mission has changed over time and according to the individual or group involved, for many the essence remains intact. You don’t know what you’re doing, so listen to us. The problem, though, is not so much with the “offer” of help, but rather the deaf ear turned to the Latin American voices offering criticism and/or their own solutions. The mission of the United States has all too often been entirely one-sided.

One particularly compelling theme, which is laid out in even more detail in Ricardo Salvatore’s Imágenes de un imperio, is the way in which U.S. companies created consumer demand in Latin America where before it had not existed, or only to a limited degree. Coca Cola, GE, Ford et al became part of the overall mission to civilize and “Westernize” Latin America. These products could make you more like U.S. consumers and therefore “better.” As he points out, Coca Cola even successfully paid to have a main character in a Brazilian soap opera drink only Coke. The book has many such examples, both historical and contemporary.

Of course, U.S. policy is still littered with references to how U.S. solutions will work best, and any substantive change to that policy will at the very least require acknowledging the fact that many Latin Americans do not agree and instead have their own solutions.

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Ecuador and Colombia

Ecuador’s case against Colombia’s drug fumigation has begun at the International Court of Justice (I first mentioned it here). In addition to the charges of sovereignty violation, Ecuador argues that Colombia will not even reveal what the chemical mix actually is. The Colombian ambassador rather testily replied that there was no “secret mix” and that such accusations should be directed only at the ICJ, and not discussed publicly. (It is worth noting that the Colombian government used the exact same "media leak" strategy with the FARC laptops, so this response is disingenuous to say the least).

It’s hard to see Ecuador losing this case, especially since its demands are very moderate (i.e. stop spraying our territory and compensate people who have been harmed by it). With any luck, it will also foster greater discussion about the effects of aerial fumigation to fight coca production. The U.S. government loves the strategy, because it is low cost and you can easily point to how many hectares have been sprayed as a way to measure “success.” People being sprayed have a slightly different view.

On a related issue, Rafael Correa said a month ago that he would declassify documents showing that Alvaro Uribe was lying about his government’s links to the FARC. I haven’t heard anything more about that.

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South Carolina immigration bill

The South Carolina legislature passed an immigration bill. The law forces businesses to check the E-Verify federal database, which is already full of bugs, for every worker, and if they fail to comply their as-yet-nonexistent state license will be revoked:

“I'm confused about this license that you have but you don't apply for that they can take away from you,” said Rep. Harry Ott, a farmer and House minority leader who voted against the bill. “I need someone to explain that to me.”

And, as is so often the case with poorly thought out policies, there is no money for enforcement.

“But we didn't put any money in the budget to let LLR hire the investigators to enforce the rules,” Ott said.

Harrison acknowledges the rules may be difficult to enforce and says the department could request more money next fiscal year to conduct random audits of businesses to ensure the law is being followed.

Sounds like a winner.

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Juxtaposition

The Washington Office on Latin America offers up an archive article from 1986 on U.S. support for the Contras in Honduran territory and the human rights abuses they committed.

And

Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte, who was U.S. Ambassador to Honduras when the Contras set up shop in the early 1980s, is about to visit Central America, including Honduras. I suppose just catching up with some old friends.

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Chile and INTERPOL Part 2

Yesterday I mentioned the extensive article published on the head of Chile's Investigaciones by the Centro de Investigación e Información Periodística. Now Investigaciones has responded with a formal letter, claiming the article is full of errors and insinuations. They do not, however, point to anything specific.

This case has obviously energized the organization, which is digging like mad to see what Herrera has been up to during his career. My hunch is that the Bachelet government would like to let this one slide by, especially since Herrera is not far from retirement, but perhaps this type of investigative journalism will exert enough pressure to force action.

Incidentally, I had not noticed when I read the story yesterday that one of CIPER's co-directors is John Dinges, a journalist who has written some excellent books on Latin American politics. The most recent was The Condor Years.

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Chile and INTERPOL

A week and a half ago, Hugo Chávez slammed the president of INTERPOL, Arturo Herrera, who is also currently Chief of Investigative Police (Investigaciones, as opposed to the Carabineros) in Chile. Chávez claimed Herrera was being investigated for abuses committed during the dictatorship. The Bachelet administration reacted quickly, saying there was no such investigation.

Now the Centro de Investigación e Información Periodística takes a very long and detailed look at Herrera and finds that Chávez was indeed wrong. However, it also makes clear that he should be investigated. He has some very nasty ties to the DINA (Pinochet’s secret police) and the CNI (its successor).

And, oddly enough, he is also teaching courses on human rights in the Escuela de Investigaciones.

h/t c.hileno

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Oops

The Colombian government so mishandled the laptops it just seized from paramilitaries that it is admitting there was a big chunk of time during which they don't even know who might have messed with them:

Por tanto, la investigación concluye hasta ahora que estos computadores en Itaguí no estuvieron bajo custodia de la Policía Judicial del Inpec entre las 4 de la mañana del martes 13 y las 8 de la mañana del miércoles 14 y que a ellos pudieron tener acceso irregular otras personas.

To put it mildly, this is not exactly the best way to establish confidence with regard to seized laptops, and will certainly spark more questions about the FARC's.

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I feel good, I knew that I would

Blogging is good for you. Scientific American interviews a Harvard neuroscientist who is studying the health benefits of writing a blog.

It does not say that reading blogs is good for you, so if you are reading this, you need to go post to get healthy.

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Obama's proposed Latin America policy

In general, I like the Obama proposals for U.S. policy toward Latin America, particularly because some are bold, going against conventional wisdom and in some cases risking political backlash. Of course, it is common after elections to find a wide gap between campaign rhetoric and policy, but we’ll cross that bridge if and when we come to it.

--He does not assert that free trade is the centerpiece of U.S. policy. Free trade is not a prerequisite of democracy, which has been a central idea for both Bush and Pres. Clinton.

--Openly says that Cuba policy is a total failure, and said so to a CANF audience. He’s already been saying this for a while, but it’s still refreshing to hear.

--Treat Venezuela as an equal, even if you disagree with the government. It is sad that this is actually bold, but it is. (However, he also says that Venezuelan elections are flawed, even though Chávez lost the last one!)

--Reform the IMF and World Bank, recognizing their failures.

--Provide a path of legalization for undocumented workers. Meanwhile, McCain is backing off this proposal to appease his base.

--Also, I love this quote: “We are funding both sides in the war on terror and supporting some of the most despotic, volatile regimes in the world.”

On the other hand, there were a few things I disagree with.

--Colombia’s right to attack its neighbors. Would we also say that Mexico has the right to attack the U.S. to fight drug trafficking?

--He talks a lot about ethanol, Brazil’s use of sugar cane and U.S. biofuel producers, but says nothing about the problems associated with using corn. The issue is more complex than he suggests.

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Obama, the CANF, and Latin America

I have to admit, I haven’t paid much attention to the Cuban American National Foundation recently. In my U.S.-Latin American Relations class I discuss it in historical context, for its policy importance under Jorge Mas Canosa (who died over a decade ago).

As a result, I read this story about Barack Obama giving a speech to the CANF with some confusion. Obama reiterated his oft-mentioned idea that the U.S. should engage in diplomacy with the Cuban government. Then what happened?

Obama's speech was warmly received and he was frequently interrupted by applause.

But there’s more. McCain had given a typical “I’ll be your hardliner man” speech a few days ago, which I assumed had been both expected and popular. Not quite:

Obama's speech offered a sharp contrast to the remarks delivered just four days ago by McCain in Miami. McCain's stay-the-course message was warmly received, but foundation president Pepe Hernandez said he was disappointed.

''We love Sen. McCain and we have been friends with him for a very long period of time, but we think at this juncture of history of the Cuban process we need to try new approaches and new methods,'' he said. ``There was nothing in his speech that we have not heard before.''

So even CANF is saying that nearly a half century of failure marks the time to come up with a fresh strategy.

Finally, the Obama campaign simultaneously released a document proposing a new Latin America policy. I do not think it is an exaggeration to call it bold. I’ll have to chew on it a bit.

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Photo of the day

Don't mess with me when I want to cross home plate.

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Immigration myths on cable TV

Check out Media Matters Action Network for a very cool article on the ways in which cable commentators—specifically Lou Dobbs, Bill O’Reilly, and Glenn Beck—use their bully pulpits to spread myths about immigration: “cable news overflows not just with vitriol, but also with a series of myths that feed viewers' resentment and fears, seemingly geared toward creating anti-immigrant hysteria.”

Reading it will seriously curdle your liver. It focuses on specific myths: that immigrants commit more crimes; that there is a plot to create a NAFTA Superhighway that will destroy the country by leading to a North American Union; that Mexicans have a Reconquista plot to take back what was lost in 1848; that undocumented immigrants commit massive voter fraud; and that undocumented immigrants are spreading leprosy.

You just have to read the quotes from these shows, which are shocking in their intentional spread of false information and xenophobia. Obviously, I knew people like Lou Dobbs were focusing on immigration, but the actual things they say are mind blowing.

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Call off the referendum?

Apparently both members of the MAS and the opposition are having second thoughts about the August 10 recall referendum, saying that it won't resolve Bolivia's political crisis. In fact, they are talking openly about suspending it if they can come to some sort of accord.

That might actually be the best of all possible scenarios. The referendum would be the spark for substantive talks, and the country could avoid what would have to be very acrimonious campaigns for the next several months.

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Double dipping in Political Science

Inside Higher Ed brings up the issue of “double dipping” conference papers, referring to the practice of presenting the same paper (or at least a revised version) at two conferences. PS: Political Science & Politics, which is the “state of the discipline” journal for Political Science, published a series of articles on the topic in its last issue.

The main criticism seems to be that it pads a person’s CV, making it look like they wrote two papers rather than one:

Do those who fill résumés in this way gain an unfair edge over those who give fewer (but perhaps more original) papers?

The answer is a resounding “no” because it is based on the idea that conference papers are an important part of getting hired or even receiving merit pay. In Political Science, as in much of academia, what matters are refereed journal articles (or book chapters) not conference papers. As a member of a hiring committee, I am largely uninterested in your conference papers except to the extent that they became articles. If you present a paper twice and get it published then you are succeeding. The hiring committee (or at least all the ones I’ve been on) looks at the single publication, not really at the two conference papers that led to it.

In some ways, padding the conference paper section of your CV with multiple papers can be negative if you don’t have many publications. What it suggests is that you’re not translating your papers into articles.

And if you’re wondering, yes, I have double dipped.

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So what's Fidel thinking these days?

Fidel apparently did not like the EU-LAC summit (here is the English version of his column in Granma). As with many of his columns, we have to follow him around a bit, from his childhood, to ancient Greece, and henceforth to Francis Fukuyama and Little Red Riding Hood. Mostly, he excoriates Europe for being imperialist:

That Europe shares with the United States extraterritorial legislation which, in violation of the sovereignty of their own territories, is increasing the blockade against Cuba by blocking the supply of technologies, components and even medicines to our country. Its publicity media is associated with the empire’s media power.

Also, the Spanish delegation was a bunch of hypocritical capitalist gluttonous drunks:

The banquet was coming. There would not be any food crisis on the table. The proteins and liquors would be flowing free.

Someday, it will be fascinating to learn—if we ever can—about the dynamics of this quasi-post-Fidel period. In a way, it’s like a good-cop, bad-cop scene, with Fidel talking tough and Raúl reaching out. Maybe it’s entirely orchestrated, maybe it just reflects their current views, or some combination.

Meanwhile, the head of the U.S. Interest Section is walking around with envelopes of cash for Castro opponents. It is, of course, only “humanitarian assistance” and has “no political purpose.” That is true if we define “no political purpose” as “hope to destroy the regime that we’ve hated since Eisenhower.”

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FAQs: INTERPOL and the laptops

I finally had time to go through INTERPOL’s report on the FARC laptops. Although the entire document is 102 pages, the meat of it is only the first 39 pages, and is followed by appendices with photos of the laptops, thumb drives, copies of letters requesting INTERPOL’s help, etc.

Given all the questions floating around, I thought I would do a list of FAQs based on the report.

Did the Colombian government tamper with the files?

No. Much has been made about the fact that the Colombian government “did not conform to internationally recognized principles for the ordinary handling of electronic evidence by law enforcement.” All this means, however, is that they accessed the data directly and did not make “write-protected images of all eight seized exhibits” (p. 8).

Further, “INTERPOL found no evidence that user files were created, modified or deleted on any of the eight seized FARC computer exhibits following their seizure on 1 March 2008 by Colombian authorities” (p. 33).

Did INTERPOL verify the authenticity of the documents?

No. “The verification of the eight seized FARC computer exhibits by INTERPOL does not imply the validation of the accuracy of the user files, the validation of any country’s interpretation of the user files or the validation of the source of the user files” (p. 9).

This will definitely be the central point for those who argue that the documents are fake or doctored, and were created by the Colombian and/or U.S. governments.

As Adam Isacson points out in a good post, even authentic documents reflect the biases, goals, etc. of the writers, which may not make for reliable versions of events. It depends on the document in question.

Why do some documents have a time stamp of 2009?

“Based on analysis of the characteristics of these files, INTERPOL’s experts concluded that these files were originally created prior to 1 March 2008 on a device or devices with incorrect system time settings. The appearance of these files on exhibits 30 and 31 indicates that they were either created while the exhibits were connected to a device with incorrect system time settings or the files were later transferred – after their initial creation – to exhibits 30 and 31 and the 2009 timestamps were transferred with the files” (p. 33).

What does that mean for understanding when certain documents were created?

“Based on the above, INTERPOL’s experts concluded that Colombian authorities should not rely on the time stamping of the files with future dates in these three exhibits (28, 30 and 31)” (p. 34).

So no one knows when those particular documents were created, and in general it calls into question the ability to create precise timelines with any of the documents.

Where did the analysis take place and who did it?

The actual analysis of the data took place in Southeast Asia and was conducted by technicians from Australia and Singapore who did not understand Spanish.

How much data is there?

“In non-technical terms, the volume of 609.6 gigabytes of data would correspond to 39.5 million filled pages in Microsoft Word and, if all of the seized data were in Word format, it would take more than 1,000 years to read it all, at a rate of 100 pages per day.” (p. 26). Quite a few, though, are just normal things anyone has on their computer (e.g. Microsoft Office programs).

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Damage control

Hugo Chávez gave an interview to a group of American newspaper editors. Given the controversy swirling around him, this is a good move. Naturally, one of the topics was the U.S. presidential election:

Of the American presidential candidates, Chavez said, "It would be a lie to say I have no preference." But "I shouldn't say anything that would be used against someone."

Whoever is elected, Chavez wants to start immediate exchanges. "It is through talking that we can then come closer and share and compare our views and then reach an agreement."

If he is serious about that, then he needs to give Obama (because there will be no rapprochement with McCain, and certainly Chávez knows that) the ability to reciprocate, which means toning down the insults. Of course, this will also depend on the tone set by whomever Obama would pick for the key Latin America positions (even just the issue of not lumping Venezuela together with dictatorships, as Hillary Clinton has done).

Anyhow, he speaks his mind candidly and calmly. We could use more of that.

Also, he's got a button under his desk, and when he pushes it someone appears with a fresh cup of coffee. I want one of those.

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Mérida Initiative portal

The Woodrow Wilson Center's Mexico Institute has put up a portal on the Mérida Initiative. It is well worth a look. There are all kinds of documents and statements by politicians, academics, and a variety of analysts. For example, Roderic Camp, who is the expert on the Mexican military, has this to say:

The relationship or potential relationship between the two militaries, and the Mexican military’s enhanced role in its anti-drug trafficking mission, has actual, potential and perceived consequences on civil-military relations and on democratic consolidation. These have been summed up as blurring the lines between appropriate and inappropriate domains for professional actions; expanding the managerial roles played by the military in society; increasing the influence of military intelligence operations; and enhancing the role military officers play in national politics and decision-making.

There are also links to the original legislation, briefings, testimonies, and the like.


h/t La Plaza

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Importing Mexican police

Now this is a disturbing story from the Dallas Morning News:

Drug cartel attacks against Mexican police have become so violent and so common that some Mexican police chiefs are seeking safety in the United States.

Faced with cartel-sponsored assassinations that have claimed the lives of more than 25 officers since the start of May – including that of Edgar Millán Gómez, head of the federal police – and threats of further retaliation, some Mexican police are quitting their posts.

But three times in recent months, leaders of Mexican police have gone further, arriving at U.S. border crossings and applying for political asylum out of fear for their lives, according to Jayson Ahern, deputy commissioner of Customs and Border Protection.

Asylum is intended for those facing a “well-founded fear of persecution.” The U.S. government currently grants asylum to few Latin Americans, and I doubt this type of case will meet the standard.

The article does a good job of lining up the two main responses to such a development. First, you can argue that it underscores the need for the Merida Initiative (aka Plan Mexico). Second, you can argue that it shows how Mexican law enforcement is not equipped to deal with the huge influx of aid/weapons that the plan would generate. The quotes from members of Congress, however, were the opposite of what I would normally expect, because a Republican said the U.S. should not send military aid, while a Democrat said it should. At this point, I have to wonder what will happen if the country is flooded with new weapons.

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Interpol and the laptop

Interpol says the infamous laptop was not tampered with.

The drives contained a vast trove of information — 610 gigabytes of data including 210,888 images, 37,872 written documents, 22,481 Web pages, 10,537 sound and video files, 7,989 email addresses and 452 spreadsheets, Interpol said.

The Venezuelan government says that the Venezuelan people, "in their infinite wisdom," will assert that the charges connecting Chávez to the FARC are false. That is not the same as saying the documents are fake. At this point I will most interested to see Chávez's reaction--will it be that all the files are fake (meaning that Interpol is either wrong or lying) or that perhaps they are real but are being misinterpreted? Or are there other options?

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CFR report on U.S.-Latin American relations

The Council on Foreign Relations has released a new study entitled, “U.S.-Latin American Relations: A New Direction for a New Reality.” It has a lot of sensible ideas, which probably means many in the U.S. will view it as crazy and/or radical. It’s a long document, and I am just highlighting some selected issues:

The Task Force finds that the issues of persistent poverty and income inequality must be better targeted by U.S. policymakers beyond the largely traditional reliance on trade and democratization alone.

The document explicitly questions the assertion that trade and market reforms reduce poverty, and calls for U.S. assistance with homegrown solutions.

The Task Force finds that the drug trade flourishes from a volatile combination of negative socioeconomic conditions in producing and trafficking countries coupled with high demand for narcotics in the United States and Europe, and increasingly in Latin America itself.

And, combined with the above assertion, comes the idea that the solution to drug trafficking is not simply more market-oriented reform.

The Task Force finds that comprehensive immigration reform is necessary to create a system that better meets U.S. security, economic, and foreign policy interests, and must be a priority for the next administration.

This is absolutely true.

While recognizing the political challenges and the importance of multilateral solutions, the Task Force recommends that the next administration proactively support the liberalization of textile and agricultural policies, including reducing and eventually eliminating tariffs and subsidies on agricultural commodities, including tariffs on ethanol, and relaxing rules of origin requirements on textiles.

In other words, if the U.S. wants to push market reforms, it needs to do so at home as well. Talk, meet walk. I do not agree with their overall idea that the state should get out of the way in all areas of the economy (in the U.S. as well as in Latin America) but it is hypocritical to push neoliberal solutions abroad when we do not follow them at home.

The Task Force finds that the United States must officially recognize all countries in the region and should work to identify areas of common interest and cooperation in order to advance U.S. interests, regardless of the countries’ political identity; this includes Cuba and Venezuela.

The sad thing is that so many people consider this radical.

There’s plenty more, so everyone can take a look and decide for themselves.

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It's like a hobby

I keep finding Republicans who think the embargo against Cuba is a bad idea, and it’s starting to feel like a collection. Some people collect stamps; I collect anti-embargo Republicans. My last one was George Will, and now via The Havana Note we have Brent Scowcroft:

My answer on Cuba is Cuba is not a foreign policy question.

Cuba is a domestic issue.

In foreign policy, the embargo makes no sense.

It doesn't do anything.

It's quite clear we can not starve Cuba to death.

We learned that when the Soviet stopped subsidizing Cuba and they didn't collapse.

It's a domestic issue.

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Bolivia's referendum is set

Bolivia’s referendum is now set for August 10. I posted about this a few days ago, and thought I would raise some questions based on that.

First, it’s important to see how approval correlates to a “yes” vote for Evo Morales. I am sure we’ll be seeing some polls soon. As I mentioned before, strong rural voter mobilization could make an important difference, especially since that population is less represented in approval rating polls anyway.

Second, in comments Miguel raised the point about Morales’ declining approval. For an August vote, will we see a continued decline in the next three months? Will that correlate to a greater “no” vote? This raises the question of whether he currently has an approval floor below which he likely won’t fall (or, regardless of such a floor, how fast he would continue to fall).

Third, knowing that a vote against Morales simply means another election (as opposed to him being kicked out of office forever) will people on the fence decide to vote against him just to send a message? One disincentive for that strategy is concern over whether such a loss would spark violence.

Fourth, how much will violence--by both sides--mark the next three months in anticipation of the vote?

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The latest Hitler reference

I don't think there's any historical figure more used as an insult than Adolf Hitler. Back in 2006, Donald Rumsfeld compared Hugo Chávez to Hitler. Now Chávez has compared German Chancellor Angela Merkel's party to Hitler's fascism. This is because she had said things like:

"Based on our experience in Europe, I don't believe that state-guided economies can provide a better or more sustainable response to such pressing problems."

Chávez then indicated he would stop insulting her because she was a "lady." Classy.

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Border wall

Link

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Why the Bush Administration thinks an FTA is bad for Colombia

I’ve written several times about the U.S.-Colombia FTA and am not looking for overkill, but President Bush gave another speech while an administration official wrote in the State Department’s blog, and their logic prompts me to write again.

We’ve been told, in no uncertain terms, that failure to pass the FTA is a slap in Colombia’s face, as the Uribe government has been a close ally. Colombia, we are told, really needs this FTA to promote both economic prosperity and security. Much is at stake.

If that is the case, shouldn’t we expect to hear that the FTA actually benefits Colombia? From Bush’s speech:

Today almost all of Colombia's exports enter the United States duty-free. Yet American products exported to Colombia face tariffs of up to 35 percent for non-agricultural goods, and much higher for many agricultural products. Think about that. They export into the United States duty-free, and we don't have the same advantage. I would call that a one-sided economic agreement.

So the POTUS himself is saying that this FTA is good because it reduces Colombia’s advantage. How, then, does that promote Colombian prosperity? The status quo is currently one-sided in favor of Colombia.

Now, from Charles S. Shapiro, the Senior Coordinator of the State Department’s Western Hemisphere Affairs Free Trade Task Force:

The cup of Colombian coffee that I had this morning, the roses that I’m going to send to my mother for Mother’s Day along with the box of chocolates all come from Colombia into the United States, tariff free. American exporters on the other hand, pay high tariffs to send products such as machinery and fertilizers to Colombia that help produce these goods. Every day that we wait to pass the Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement (CTPA) is a day that American farmers, businesses and workers lose out. Free trade will benefit both of us.

If Colombia benefits now, and the U.S. doesn’t, then how does an FTA benefit both of us? Right now, Colombia has access but also protection of domestic industry, and an FTA gets rid of the latter.

If I were an advocate for the FTA, I would argue that the benefit derives from not having to deal with the constant vote wrangling associated with the Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act, which offers all those nice benefits but always faces some degree of congressional skepticism. That skepticism is enhanced when Colombia is lumped in with Bolivia and Ecuador. Why, then, does the administration never even mention this dynamic?

All this, I believe, helps us understand the Bush administration’s enduring problems with Latin America. It cannot even construct a coherent argument in favor of its own allies.

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Bolivia recall

In December 2007, Evo Morales proposed a recall referendum for himself and the nine prefects and in March a government spokesperson repeated the possibility—I kept asking about it but, as the AP notes, it never progressed from there. Now the Bolivian Senate has passed a bill calling for a referendum within 90 days, and Morales has said he’ll sign it.

The measure would require Morales and Bolivia's nine state governors to win both more votes and a greater percentage of support than they did on a 2005 ballot. If they fall short, they will have to run again in a new general election.

Bolivian state governors did not immediately react to the president's announcement, but most have previously said they would participate in such a vote.

Morales won 1,544,374 votes and 53.7% in the 2005 presidential election, so will have to surpass those numbers. The AP article also correctly notes that his popularity remains over 50% (last poll was 54%) despite the fact that polls center on urban areas, and there is no doubt that the government will mobilize the rural electorate. Of course, a lot can happen in 90 days, but at this point his position is solid. A win would legitimize his presidency even further and improve his bargaining position vis-à-vis the regional autonomy movements.

See also Boz and Miguel.

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Arresting self-deportees

The idea behind more immigration enforcement is to encourage undocumented immigrants to return to their country of origin. Now U.S. Customs and Border Protection officers are setting up shop right on the border at San Diego and arresting people who are trying to get back to Mexico.

In other words, such individuals are mere minutes from deporting themselves, but the U.S. government wants to spend tons of money to do it instead.

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U.S.-Panama FTA

President Bush met with Panamanian President Martín Torrijos to launch his effort to get a U.S.-Panama FTA ratified. One of the major roadblocks has now been removed, as Pedro Miguel Gonzalez, the speaker of Panama’s National Assembly who the U.S. government accuses of murdering an American soldier, announced he would not seek re-election.

This means that there are no major problems with the deal, but questions remain about whether it will be approved.

--If political capital is required to push some recalcitrant members of Congress, does Bush have any at all? In a statement he said the administration would do “everything in our capacity” to get it passed, but there’s just not much capacity left.

--The South Korea FTA will take center stage, so will it push debate on Panama too far back to get passed before Bush leaves office?

--Will the administration push the Colombia FTA again, thus pushing the Panama deal back?

--Will the Democratic Party be so focused on swing states in a presidential election in the midst of a recession that it will be unwilling to pass free trade this year? It will be hard to argue that the Panama FTA will matter much economically, but it is a matter of perception.

For anyone interested, here is the link to the USTR’s info page on the Panama FTA.

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