Thursday, July 22, 2010

13 Bankers

I read Simon Johnson and James Kwak's 13 Bankers: The Wall Street Takeover and the Next Financial Meltdown, which is a very good, albeit repetitive (in the sense that they repeat certain points over and over), overview of the 2008 economic crash, focusing on the problem of having a small number of financial institutions that are "too big to fail."  It is not a fun read, particularly since the recently passed financial reform addresses the problem only at the margins.  It is well-footnoted and also clearly written, with succinct definitions of very complicated topics (like synthetic collateralized debt obligations, which I am not sure I yet fully understand--in fact, another theme is that Wall Street viewed complexity as a virtue, so that if you are not an insider, you should accept everything at face value).  It is highly critical of the way in which the crisis was handled--Johnson, a professor at MIT's Sloan School, takes particular aim at Democrats who talk about reform and then buckle under.

A core issue the book examines is the fact that in recent years large financial institutions have developed extremely complex products that are too often intended to obscure their dubious origin.  The interests of the customer are ignored.  This is not particularly new, but the sheer size and scope of these institutions is much greater than in the past.  Thus, moral hazard is a severe problem, because these institutions feel emboldened by the idea that the government will bail them out.  Indeed, the bailout (and likely the financial reform as well) has only made the problem worse: "we can see now that the largest, most powerful banks came out of the crisis even larger and more powerful."  In 2009, an executive from Goldman Sachs argued that "The injunction of Jesus to love others as ourselves is a recognition of self-interest...We have to tolerate the inequality as a way to achieve greater prosperity and opportunity for all."  In other words, being too big to fail was good for everyone.

But what to do?  Their argument is to ensure that no institution becomes that big in the first place.  Breaking them up and creating caps are the central policy prescriptions.  Left intact, they will take on even more risk than in the past, create new products that elude regulations (and regulators who care little about enforcement anyway, sometimes refusing to do anything, or whose budgets rely on those same financial institutions--the current reform only asks regulators to make some new rules in the future) and thereby inevitably create a future crisis.  You can close a barn door, or at least partially close it, but there are always new barn doors.  It is, as the authors say, the "doom loop."

Read more...

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Latin America and immigration

Seven Latin American countries are joining Mexico in its amicus curiae for the Arizona immigration law:


Bolivia, Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Paraguay and Peru filed separate, nearly identical motions to join Mexico's legal brief supporting the lawsuit filed by U.S. civil rights and other advocacy groups.
A federal judge formally accepted Mexico's filing July 1 but did not immediately rule on the latest motions filed late last week.


One of the less examined aspects of recent debates over immigration is the activism of Latin American governments, which transcends ideology.  Mexico is the most obvious case, and I've written about Felipe Calderón's statements before, but it is evident across the region.  It may well be one of the few things that governments as disparate as Bolivia and Colombia can agree upon.  It should be a topic of conversation for regional organizations.

Read more...

Monday, July 19, 2010

Headline of the day: Venezuela

From the Seattle PI: Despite Chavez, Venezuela Economy Not Socialist


Since 2007, Chavez has nationalized and expropriated companies in sectors he deems strategic, including the oil industry, cement, telecommunications, electricity, steel and food. But economists note that those businesses make up a relatively modest share of the economy.
And the balance between public and private sectors remains nearly identical to when Chavez took office in part because the private sector grew faster than the government between 2003 and 2006, when the economy was booming.
Last year the private sector accounted for 70 percent of gross domestic product, including 11 percent in taxes paid on products, according to Central Bank estimates. The public sector was 30 percent, a slightly smaller share than when Chavez was elected in 2008.
By international standards, Venezuela has long had a large public sector because it includes the oil industry. By comparison, the public sector in Sweden accounts for 25 percent of GDP, and in United States less than 14 percent.
The whole thing is worth the read.

Read more...

Evangelicals and immigration

This very interesting NYT article about evangelicals and immigration has more angles than you can shake a stick at, and therefore all sorts of unanswered but fascinating questions as well.  Such as:

1.  How much will support from evangelical leaders translate into congressional votes?

2.  How deep is the connection between Latino and Anglo evangelical churches?

3.  Can evangelicals forge political connections with pro-immigration reform business leaders?

4.  How will opponents of immigration reform frame their rebuttal to evangelicals?

5.  How much has evangelical support for immigration reform changed in the past, say, four years?

Not likely anything happening this year, but stay tuned.

Read more...

Saturday, July 17, 2010

Border crossing deaths

A few days ago, I wrote about how economic recovery was increasing the number of border crossings.  Now (via Border Wall in the News) the number of border crossing deaths may hit a record high this month (the record of 68 was set in July 2005).


Apprehensions in the Border Patrol's Tucson Sector have decreased each of the past five years; remittances to Mexico have declined and anecdotal reports show the economic recession has slowed illegal immigration. Yet more people are dying than ever.
Border-county law enforcement, Mexican consular officials, Tohono O'odham tribal officials and humanitarian groups say the buildup of border fencing, technology and agents has caused illegal border crossers to walk longer distances in more treacherous terrain, increasing the likelihood that people will get hurt or fatigued and left behind to die.
The Border Patrol disagrees that it's pushing illegal immigrants into more hazardous terrain and points to its rescue efforts as evidence that its presence prevents deaths rather than causes them.


The Border Patrol certainly does not want people to die, and rescues those it can, but border enforcement pushes people to seek ever more dangerous routes.  Study after study has shown the number of deaths increasing as border security was tightened.  The essential point is that people will come illegally if there is no legal route, and take greater risks if they need to.

Read more...

Friday, July 16, 2010

Hugo Chávez and Simón Bolívar's corpse

Hugo Chávez has exhumed Simón Bolívar's remains, with the stated goal of determining whether he died of tuberculosis.  This event was so momentous that Chávez announced it through some tweets.

Doing weird things with corpses and body parts has a long and distinguished history in Latin America.  Lyman Johnson, a colleague of mine in History at UNC Charlotte, edited a book a few years ago entitled Death, Dismemberment, and Memory: Body Politics in Latin America.  It's amazing how relevant dead bodies can be for contemporary politics.  Not quite zombies, but close.

Read more...

Thursday, July 15, 2010

This is my member of Congress

From Peter Krupa at Lat/Am Daily, I give you Rep. Sue Myrick (R-NC):

Here we are with a porous border, not really paying attention to who’s coming over, what’s happening with Iran and Hugo Chávez and Venezuela. We know that there are people going to Venezuela, learning Spanish, and then coming up through Mexico with fake documents, trying to cross the border. If they’re stopped they say, I’m Mexican. You know. Or Spanish. The point is, a border agent who really knows the difference in their language can tell that they aren’t Mexican, and so it’s very difficult if those agents aren’t really trained in linguistics to know that. And they get across.

I don't even need to comment, but I think I could use a drink.

Read more...

Immigration and crime in Arizona

Interesting chart from America's Voice Online about crime in Arizona, suggesting that local-level immigration crackdowns increase crime, while crime is down elsewhere.



It is a back of the envelope type of thing that does not take any other variables into consideration (past crime rates, socio-economic status of different jurisdictions, etc.).  Regardless, it is another example of how crime cannot be used as a justification for tougher enforcement.  There is already abundant evidence that crime overall is down, and this represents even more anecdotal support.

Read more...

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Immigration and backfire

Check out this NPR story on research showing how people hold inaccurate beliefs even more strongly when presented with contrary evidence.  The phenomenon is called "backfire."  There is an interview with Prof. Brendan Nyhan, who published on the topic.

The transcript includes discussion by Neal Conan and Dana Milbank about Arizona Governor Jan Brewer, who has been saying all sorts of outlandish and untrue things about immigration and violence.


CONAN: And on Sunday, the Post published a piece you wrote that started with Arizona Governor Jan Brewer's claim that law enforcement agencies found bodies in the desert, either buried or just lying out there, that had been beheaded.
Mr. MILBANK: Yes, I think Governor Brewer lost her head on that one in particular. Now, there's a huge problem with violence on the border, but virtually all of it happens to be on the Mexican side. And what happened in the case of this claim is a news organization out there called the Arizona Guardian called all the coroner's office, the medical examiners in those border counties, and they could not think of a single instance of an immigration-related beheading.
I called the governor's office to see if they could give me some of this decapitation information, and they didn't so much as return an email or a phone call. So I suspect if they had evidence of that, they would have furnished it.
CONAN: And no updates since publication.
Mr. MILBANK: There is no reply still. 

I'm pretty sure there never will be.

Read more...

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

The U.S., Cuba and leverage

José Cárdenas at Shadow Government argues that the prisoner release in Cuba should not prompt a change in U.S. policy.  He ends with a rhetorical flourish, but one that is--as often is the case with embargo supporters--devoid of critical detail:

Rewarding the regime for a self-serving tactical maneuver that could be reversed at any time would be counterproductive and a waste of the leverage the United States does possess to push for fundamental reforms in the best interests of all 11,000,000 Cuban political prisoners.

What is this mysterious leverage we have?  The embargo laws and all their corollaries are supposed to exert the necessary pressure "to push for fundamental reforms," but they clearly have not done so.  If anything, they have benefited and continue to benefit the Castro regime greatly, because they offer an indefinite excuse for anything that goes wrong with the economy, and they are a global PR bonanza for the Cuban government.

Let's stop pretending about leverage, because we don't have any.  Fidel Castro has played embargo supporters like a fiddle for a very long time.

Read more...

China ousts Venezuela

As Colombia's second largest trading partner, anyway.  The antagonisms, especially Hugo Chávez freezing relations and threatening to cut trade as well, have led to a 68.9% drop of exports to Venezuela in May, following a general trend since the 2008 bombing of Ecuador.

The net result has been more access for China to Colombia's commodities.  However, Colombian exports of manufactured goods (like machinery and spare parts) have dropped 4.5%, due in part to Venezuela's sagging economy.

Who would have thought that a trade dispute between Venezuela and Colombia would ultimately benefit China the most?

Read more...

Monday, July 12, 2010

Weeks Population blog

If you are interested in demographic issues, then you might check out my dad's new blog Weeks Population.  Its main purpose is to be an added resource for his textbook on the topic, which was first published over 30 years ago and will soon be out in a new 11th edition.

Read more...

Economic recovery and border crossings

If you are surprised at the following, then you may have your head in the sand or perhaps you are Jan Brewer:  as the U.S. economy slowly improves, the number of border crossings between San Diego and Mexico has started to hold steady or increase after several years of decline.

These are official counts of legal crossings, but there can be no doubt that illegal crossings are rising in parallel, regardless of state laws, real or virtual, fences, or unmanned drones.

Read more...

Why the governors are wrong on immigration

The New York Times has an article about how Democratic Governors are complaining about the government's lawsuit against Arizona.  A few thoughts:

First, I am not convinced that voters will think much about the Arizona lawsuit when voting in November midterm elections.  The governors' argument rests on the assumption that the lawsuit will somehow tip people who otherwise would have stayed at home or who would have voted Democrat.  I have yet to see any evidence of that.

Second, as I've written countless times, people's views on immigration policy are never as simple as generally portrayed.  Kudos to the reporter (Abby Goodnough) for this perceptive paragraph:

The lawsuit contends that controlling immigration is a federal responsibility, but polls suggest that a majority of Americans support the Arizona law, or at least the concept of a state having a strong role in immigration enforcement.


Exactly.  People do want a functional system with a working enforcement component.  However, that does not necessarily translate into punishing Democrats because of the lawsuit.

Third, the main problem is a general sense of inaction, not the lawsuit per se.  Outgoing Washington Governor Christine Gregoire makes the following point:

“They described for me a list of things that they are doing to try and help on that border,” Ms. Gregoire said of the White House officials at the closed-door meeting. “And I said, ‘The public doesn’t know that.’ ”
She added, “We’ve got a message void, and the only thing we’re hearing is that they’re filing a lawsuit.”

I disagree that people are paying such close attention to the lawsuit, but the administration is doing a poor job of convincing anyone that it is committed to anything except nice words and more enforcement for PR purposes, and so it is criticized by all sides.

Read more...

Sunday, July 11, 2010

Threats everywhere

Every so often you see an editorial that wraps up multiple conspiracy theories into a single, bizarre ball.  The NY Daily News argues that Hezbollah is in Tijuana, which apparently moved because they claim it is right across the border from Texas, and that will eventually help the FARC.  Or at least that is what someone in Kuwait says.

Who says the MSM is dead?

Read more...

Saturday, July 10, 2010

Immigration and made-up stuff

There are all sorts of myths about the negative effects of immigration.  Now the discussion about Arizona has moved from myths to consistent lying.  I already wrote about how Jan Brewer says all sorts of things that simply are not true, and Matthew Yglesias points to more examples: "The upshot of all this is to create a toxic cycle of misinformation."

This may well be the most exasperating part of debating immigration, because the issue is complex enough without high-level elected officials lying about it (or being so ignorant as to spread untruths because they do not know the truth and cannot be bothered with it).

Read more...

Friday, July 09, 2010

Correa and UNITAS

Rafael Correa continues to confound easy ideological labeling.  He is going to participate in UNITAS with countries that according to conventional media wisdom are supposed to be his mortal enemies, such as the United States, Peru. Colombia, Mexico, and Chile.  This comes on the heels of having nice words with Hillary Clinton, expressing concern about how Latin American culture focuses on lying, and slowly warming relations with Colombia.  This serves the dual purpose of improving relations and keeping his own military happy.

Read more...

Thursday, July 08, 2010

Videla's argument

Página 12 (in Spanish) has a lengthy discussion of the latest declarations by former Argentine dictator Jorge Rafael Videla, as well as a succinct history of his case.  His argument is identical to that put forth by Augusto Pinochet and his supporters in Chile.  Marxist terrorists controlled by foreigners needed to be exterminated, and now these same Marxists were orchestrating the trials of patriotic members of the military.  Life is therefore unfair.

The nice difference is that Videla has spent 12 years in prison, whereas Pinochet spent none.

Read more...

Wednesday, July 07, 2010

Warren St. John's Outcasts United

A feel good story about refugees coming together while playing soccer sounds trite, but in Outcasts United Warren St. John manages to show enough of everyone's rough edges to bring out a great story.*  A Jordanian woman, Luma Mufleh, came to Clarkston, Georgia and created soccer teams for boys composed of the rapidly growing refugee population there in the small town South.  The story avoids sappiness or oversimplification.

There is no climax per se, but rather a constant fight against poverty, exclusion, and fear.  Insert your "against all odds" cliche here.  Nonetheless, it is very well-written and avoids black-and-white descriptions of the reactions to the refugees.  St. John talks to everyone, and many of the people (some of the local politicians, community leaders, parents from other soccer teams, etc.) are more sympathetic than you might first think.

From a policy perspective, the book raises the point that immigration agencies do not bother coordinating with local government.  They find communities with available cheap housing and ready public transportation access to metro areas (in this case Atlanta).  They then bring in large numbers of people and say nothing to local officials, who find themselves in a sink or swim situation that raises tensions.  When St. John attended the single meeting set up between local elected officials and immigration agencies, he actually portrayed the latter in a negative light, as they became defensive and implied everyone was discriminatory.

One point St. John does not explore is the question of soccer itself.  Clarkston's mayor kept rejecting requests to play on a city field, saying that only baseball could be played there.  An undertone of the first part of the book is the idea that soccer is foreign.  Yet the second half of the book gives all sorts of examples of how wealthy Americans love soccer and support it.  Do people dislike soccer, or just immigrants playing soccer?  If a group of Spanish-speaking kids wanted to play baseball, would baseball also be banned?  This is relevant in the context of the World Cup--media commentators discuss how foreign soccer is, it is slow, we're not used to ties, etc., yet millions of kids play it all the time, even in the deep South.


*Almost exactly a year ago I reviewed Paul Cuadros' A Home on the Field, which deals with Latino immigrants playing soccer in North Carolina.

Read more...

Tuesday, July 06, 2010

Venezuela aid

The Miami Herald notes Venezuela's aid to Haiti, and twists itself into a pretzel to portray it as bad.  However, if you remove "Venezuela" and insert "United States" then you could make U.S. aid look equally bad.  The article directly or indirectly makes three main points:

First, countries with domestic economic problems should be criticized for provided aid to other countries instead of giving it to their own citizens.  Under this logic, all U.S. aid programs should be ended immediately and indefinitely.  In fact, very few countries on earth should currently give aid.

Second, countries should be criticized if there are perceived political objectives associated with aid.  OK, though no country provides large amounts of aid without a political goal.

Third, countries should be criticized if they make huge promises of aid that they are unlikely to provide.  I agree with this, but Venezuela is hardly alone.

Read more...

  © Blogger templates The Professional Template by Ourblogtemplates.com 2008

Back to TOP