Monday, October 23, 2006

Venezuela: saving face

When you're losing politically, sometimes the best strategy is to declare victory and move on. Hugo Chávez is showing some signs of this, by asserting that the UN vote really showed the United States a thing or two.

"We have taught the empire a lesson," Chavez told thousands of supporters in Valencia, an industrial city about 65 miles west of Caracas. Even if "Venezuela isn't able to enter the Security Council, we've done damage to the empire. That was our objective."

To my knowledge, this is the first time he's discussed possibly losing. Voting is scheduled to resume on Wed., so it is entirely possible we'll have a new candidate by then. Chávez stands to lose more than Guatemala if the voting goes on and on.

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Sunday, October 22, 2006

Fainaru and Sánchez's The Duke of Havana

I just read The Duke of Havana: Baseball, Cuba, and the Search for the American Dream, by Steve Fainaru and Ray Sánchez. I enjoyed it immensely, and would highly recommend it for anyone interested in baseball and Cuba. It's now on my sidebar list.

It tells the story of Orlando “El Duque” Hernández, who defected from Cuba in late 1997, and who was a huge baseball star there. His brother, Liván, had defected the previous year, which created a stampede mentality as Cuba players sought to get out and sign huge deals with major league teams in the U.S. An almost hyperactive would-be agent followed the Cuban teams all over the place, trying to convince players to defect.

Ultimately, the Cuban government banished El Duque from all official levels of play, saying his association with such people (and with his brother) made him a bad example for revolutionary baseball—he was forced to play sandlot games. It was this that sparked the chain of events that would eventually bring him to the New York Yankees and the 1998 World Series (unfortunately, against the Padres). It’s a remarkable story.

Throughout, the book is highly critical of Cuban politics, especially the combination of total power and arbitrariness. With no explanation, your livelihood is taken away. Once you are labeled as a counter-revolutionary, then you are largely shunned and you have to struggle even harder to make ends meet. At the same time, however, it also highlights the shaky promise of major league baseball, and capitalism in general. Once spirited out of Cuba, the players would try out (Costa Rica was a popular destination—the players needed to establish residency in another country in order to be free agents). If they didn’t cut the mustard, then they were tossed aside, to the vagaries of a capitalist system they did not understand. If they weren’t good enough, then immediately no one cared whether they starved or not.

El Duque himself admitted that he did not defect because of dissatisfaction with life in Cuba—in fact, everyone discusses being poor, but this does not lead to a desire to leave their homes and families. El Duque’s family was very ambivalent about following him to the U.S. Instead, he left because he had been banned from baseball—if the Cuban government hadn’t gone that far, he might have stayed. The book ends with a discussion between several Cuban émigrés, and some of them wondered whether they would’ve been better off in Cuba.

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Venezuela: Hub of Terrorism?

My student Alejandro sent me an interesting story from El Tiempo, which discussed a new report from the Committee on Homeland Security in the U.S. House of Representatives to the effect that Venezuela is a terrorist threat because it is funneling terrorists up through the U.S.-Mexico border.

No matter what you think of Venezuela, I think we can all agree that if you make an allegation of that magnitude, then you need to provide some serious evidence. Or, well, maybe not. The burden of proof these days seems pretty minimal.

Here is the full text of the report, which argues, “[A]ccording to senior U.S. military and intelligence officials, Venezuela is emerging as a potential hub of terrorism in the Western Hemisphere, providing assistance to Islamic radicals from the Middle East and other terrorists.” Venezuela has reportedly provided government IDs “to people who should not be getting them.”

What are the sources for these particular accusations, and the general idea that Venezuela is becoming a terrorist state?

--a 2003 article in U.S. News and World Report
--a 2003 article in the Financial Times
--a 2006 article in the Washington Times
--one anonymous interview

And that’s it.

In July, the State Department announced that Venezuela was “not cooperating fully” in the “war on terror,” and coined the “terrorist hub” phrase. It is based mostly on Chávez’s relationship with Iran, and that he questioned the validity of the UN resolutions on counterterrorism.

Cozying up to Iran, blundering around the UN, talking about pursuing a relationship with North Korea, are all examples of how Chávez seems inept and politically tone deaf (both domestically and internationally) with regard to foreign policy. But it is a very big leap to take that to the level of terrorist state.

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Thursday, October 19, 2006

Baseball and UNC Charlotte

We are not known as a baseball powerhouse, but Mets pitcher John Maine was a star here just a few years ago. What I didn't know is that one of the NLCS umpires, Field Culbreth, also played baseball here and graduated in 1986.

Even ESPN radio announcer Dave Campbell joked about it on a recent flight from New York to St. Louis, at one point asking Culbreth if there was a "little conflict of interest."

"Are you kidding?," Culbreth said. "When I was at UNC Charlotte, he wasn't even born yet."

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More on Venezuela

Andres Oppenheimer asks whether Hugo Chávez has peaked, a question everyone is asking. There is one point in particular that I find compelling—whether Chávez can recover depends in part on the Bush administration. Will it try to beat him when he’s down, and thus snatch defeat from the jaws of victory? A juicy comparison to Hitler to give him a little boost?

[I must say I find his argument about Castro dying and Cuba becoming a quasi Venezuelan protectorate to be totally uncompelling and alarmist].

Meanwhile, later this morning the UN voting will begin yet again, as Venezuela adamantly refused to withdraw. Not a fun time to be a UN delegate.

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Wednesday, October 18, 2006

No voting today

There won't be any voting today, in an effort to give Latin American delegates time to figure out a solution to the impasse. Venezuela says it would withdraw if the U.S. stopped pressuring countries to vote for Guatemala, but it is unclear how that would work in practice. The Guatemalan Foreign Minister said that Venezuela should withdraw because it is so far behind, but opened the door to both countries stepping back:

"We believe that the General Assembly should not be held hostage to the position of one country," Rosenthal said. "So there are limits of how far we're gong to try to carry this out, although I have to say that it isn't us that is holding the General Assembly hostage."

I think the further Venezuela pushes this, the more Chávez's image suffers.

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Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Round 22 in the UN

After 22 rounds not much has changed. In number 22, it was Guatemala 102, Venezuela 77, and a whopping 12 abstentions (perhaps out of sheer exhaustion?). This is possibly just like AMLO's protest, where a principled stand has been taken (i.e. seeking the UN seat to counter U.S. hegemony) and so an exit strategy must allow for a save of face.

Clearly, neither country will win, and both know that.

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Vote for Weeks


Vote for my Mom. The only caveat is that you have to live in the east county of San Diego.

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UN voting resumes

Round 11: Guatemala 107, Venezuela 76, and 8 abstentions. Incidentally, all this can be viewed live at the UN website. They are now moving directly to a new round.

(Update at 1:30 p.m.) Round 14: 108 to 76. From Reuters:

Latin American nations were trying to convene a meeting later in the day in an effort to break the impasse but Venezuela was resisting a withdrawal of its nomination, diplomats said.

Hugo Chávez has to be seriously annoyed. Venezuela drew even at one point yesterday, but now the vote totals are barely changing.

(Update at 2:30 p.m.) Round 16: 108 to 76. Same thing.

I'd put Costa Rica as the front runner for the consensus candidate. South America is already represented by Peru, so there would be regional balance. In addition, Costa Rica is viewed as politically independent from the United States.

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Can AMLO pull a Nixon?

This may be it for AMLO. He lost the election, lost support for the Mexico City protests, and now his favored candidate (for whom he campaigned) lost the governor's race in his home state, Tabasco. With 96% of the vote counted, he was 10 points down.

Óscar Luis Rodríguez, a longtime member of Mr. López Obrador’s party in Tabasco, put it more bluntly. “Andrés Manuel has lost credibility,” he told the daily newspaper El Sol. “He has lost respect. Here Andrés Manuel was born, and here he has been buried.”

There is also a good quote from Ricardo’s blog:

“Andrés Manuel López Obrador es como los elefantes. Se vino a morir a su tierra"

"Andrés Manuel López Obrador is like the elephants, he came to die on his own land"

Fernando Moreno Peña, from the PRI, as quoted by El Universal


At the very least, he’ll have to pull off a Nixon. After losing the presidential and then the CA gubernatorial elections, he famously told the press, “You won’t have Dick Nixon to kick around anymore.” And he was elected president six years later.

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Monday, October 16, 2006

UN vote update

From MSNBC: Guatemala received 109 votes, 15 short of the necessary 2/3. Venezuela received 76, which is certainly less than it had been claiming. So there will be a second round.

Updating the update: In two subsequent rounds, Guatemala received 114 and then 116, while Venezuela went from 74 to 70.

Round 4: Guatemala 110, Venezuela 75. So the votes are not continuing to move in Guatemala's direction anymore.

Round 7: Now moving in Venezuela's direction. Guatemala 93, Venezuela 93, Mexico 1.

Round 10: Guatemala 110, Venezuela 77, 4 abstentions. Back to round 4 numbers!

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UN vote

Today is the UN General Assembly's vote on the nonpermanent members of the Security Council. The vote begins at 10 am. Chile officially announced its intention to abstain, adding it to Peru and perhaps others as countries that don't want to be in the middle of a U.S.-Venezuela dispute.

There is little chance that either Venezuela or Guatemala will receive the necessary 2/3, though I will be very interested to see how many each gets. I'm sure Venezuela will require multiple rounds of voting before it would contemplate stepping aside for a new consensus candidate.

We just have to wait and see.

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Sunday, October 15, 2006

Baseball and comedy

Via Knuckle Curve: very funny segment from Conan O'Brien as he goes to the reenactment of a Civil War-era baseball game.

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Saturday, October 14, 2006

Tasting Coca Sek

About 10 months after I wrote about it, I get tons of hits on my post about Coca Sek, the Colombian drink made from coca leaves. Now, finally, news from someone who has tried it--Adam Isacson at Plan Colombia and Beyond.

How to describe the taste? If you grew up in a temperate climate, did you ever jump into a pile of newly raked autumn leaves, only to get a bunch of dead, dried leaves in your mouth? The taste is sort of reminiscent of that, only with lots of added sugar.

Obviously, you would need a better ad campaign than that. So why would anyone drink it?

Not only did it keep me awake, it also made it a bit easier to string words together in Spanish.
If given a drug test, however, right now I would produce a big, huge "positive."


So don't start looking on the shelves of your local mini-mart or in campus vending machines just yet...

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Paul Blustein's And the Money Kept Rolling In (and Out)

I read Paul Blustein’s And the Money Kept Rolling in (and Out) which is about the Argentine economic collapse. A former student, John Hyatt, had really liked it and I thought I would take a look. I enjoyed it, and it’s a quick read, a good way to get an overview of the Argentine implosion.

The book was billed as a critique of the IMF and, to a lesser extent, the Bush administration for the failure to address the situation adequately. Normally, such critiques center on the IMF’s penchant for forcing structural adjustment policies on developing countries. Blustein actually goes the opposite direction, and argues that the IMF should have pulled the plug on loans much earlier than it did, and should have been more insistent that Argentine policy makers abandon the dollar peg (aka “convertibility”) whereby one peso was worth exactly one dollar, and the government guaranteed that anyone with pesos could convert them to dollars at any time.

This conclusion left me a bit unsatisfied. The IMF has been justly criticized for its disastrous policies of the 1980s, when it paid too much attention to economic orthodoxy and almost none to the human cost associated with it. The fact that it granted several emergency loans to Argentina as a way to help Argentine policy makers fix their own problem doesn’t seem quite as sinful to me as he portrays. Obviously, things went very, very wrong, but even Blustein admits that many in the IMF simply wanted to make sure that whatever happened, the decision would be Argentina’s.

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Friday, October 13, 2006

Hugo Chávez on love

You can always count on Hugo Chávez to come up with something new. Now he is the Barry White of Latin America, doing it all for love. He just wants a big national hug.

Newspaper ads by President Hugo Chávez's campaign include a solemn ''message of love'' for the Venezuelan people that reads: ``I have always done everything for love.''

And

In a speech on Thursday, Chávez reiterated that his political movement is about love. ''That love, what it has done is grow all these years,'' he said.

And

''There is still much to do. I need more time. I need your vote. Your vote for love,'' the Chávez ad concludes.

All these years in Political Science, we've focused on issues like power, ideology, institutions, etc. It never occurred to us that it's all just about love.

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Venezuelan oil

Apropos our discussion in class on Venezuela, my student Sara asked me about Venezuelan oil. This got me thinking—way back in February, Hugo Chávez threatened to cut off oil exports to the U.S. Although he’s been talking oil deals with China and Iran, he hasn’t said any more about that, or at least not that I’ve seen. There was much talk about reducing our dependence on Venezuelan oil, but I wonder whether that has indeed happened. I'd even wager that the same people who decry Chávez's speech to the UN then unknowingly pull into Citgo and fill 'er up.

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Thursday, October 12, 2006

The embargo

Yesterday in my Latin American Politics class, my student Michael asked about the tightening of sanctions against Cuba, and I had to admit I hadn’t seen the news. The government has created a new task force to crack down more on violations of sanctions, such as traveling to Cuba. What an utter and complete waste.

Acosta acknowledged that the agencies already work together on embargo enforcement. He said it was "an appropriate time to make it clear to the community that we seek to enforce this law aggressively."

The “appropriate time" seems to be when Republicans fear the upcoming election results, and want to be sure they shore up the anti-Castro Cuban American vote.

The rules, Acosta said, are meant to speed up a transition to democracy in Cuba.

I see. Does it matter that such rules have not achieved that goal now in over 40 years? I would love to hear precisely how the embargo will ever do anything except hurt Cubans and bolster Castro.

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Wednesday, October 11, 2006

The UN vote

From the Miami Herald: another discussion of the UN race. Even more useful than the article is a link to a Security Council document, which is worth a look if you want to know how the voting works. Combined, the article and link yield the following:

--the voting is secret. I had been reading that in the media, but never with a specific reference. It is rule 92 of the Rules of Procedure of the General Assembly.

--“informal” count puts Venezuela at 100 votes and Guatemala at 90. Last month, Guatemala claimed to have 110. These counts seem pretty meaningless, especially given the secret vote.

--Peru plans to abstain. In June, President García had said he could vote for Venezuela. He is currently in DC, however, and may be finding that the ire of the United States is not worth it at the moment, as he tries to get a free trade agreement set.

--this could take months. I had the image of delegates staying up until all hours, vote after vote, like the Vatican. I hadn’t known that the 1979 case, where Cuba and Colombia were deadlocked, and Mexico entered as a compromise choice, lasted over three months.

--consensus possibilities being floated are Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Uruguay, and Panama.

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Tuesday, October 10, 2006

The border fence

The Washington Post has a very interesting article about building a border fence. In particular, the small amount of fence that was built in San Diego had massive cost overruns and environmental disputes, and never even was completed. Further:

The fence in San Diego forced illegal traffic into the deserts to the east, leading thousands of migrants to their death. In response, the Border Patrol shifted thousands of agents to Arizona to deal with the flow. But many of those agents came from the San Diego and El Centro sectors. So once again, the number of crossers in San Diego and El Centro is increasing even though the two sectors are the most heavily fenced in the nation.

Skeptics include the head of the Border Patrol’s union, the Marine Corps, the Texas Border Sheriff’s Association, the City of El Paso, and many native Americans. As one sheriff in Texas put it:

"A few years ago, they installed cameras and said the cameras would solve things," he said. "Those cameras can pick up a tick on a cow's back. But when half the monitors are all busted like they are now, they don't work."

His prediction for how illegal immigrants would deal with the wall: "They will get ladders made out of mesquite and climb it."


What a policy success. Let's put something in place that even law enforcement thinks is a bad idea.

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