The Big Fidel News

Fidel Castro is having intestinal surgery (apparently he has bleeding as a result of the stress of recent trips) and so has temporarily ceded power to his brother Raúl. The Latin Americanist has a good collection of links to different news sources as they’ve sought to interpret this. There have been interesting signs for a while.

I think it’s important to distinguish between Fidel being dead (rumors of which constantly abound--blogs spread them even further and faster) and being sick. He may recover from his surgery and we go back to "normal" though of course major surgery when you’re almost 80 is no laughing matter.

But there are so many unknowns. Raúl is not viewed as a strong leader—could this spark a power struggle? Who would line up where? I will watch with what I can only call morbid fascination. I say “morbid” because even if Fidel dies, the Cuban people are in for a very difficult ride, as the Communist Party, the Cuban military, the Bush administration, and Miami exiles all pursue their own interests. Shoot, Hugo Chávez might even get into the mix.