Calling for policy change
This is a few days old, but 104 members of Congress from both parties signed a letter (here is a PDF through the WOLA website) asking for a complete review of U.S. policy toward Cuba: “Our policy leaves us without influence at this critical moment, and this serves neither the U.S. national interest nor average Cubans, the intended beneficiaries of our policy.” That is almost 25% of all members, an impressive total that likely will continue to grow, though perhaps only gradually as people start paying more attention. But also look for more governors to work behind the scenes to expand the existing agricultural trade program. Further:
Rep. Howard Berman (D-Calif.), the acting chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, announced in a statement he would hold hearings to determine what impact Castro’s retirement could make on the island.
Apparently Democrats also have what they believe are strong candidates running against the
6 comments:
The timing to eliminate the embargo couldn't be better.
A sudden flow of wealth to Cuba coinciding with Castro's retirement, would change Cuba’s attitudes towards the US and Castro himself. It would somehow justify the unjustifiable (in the sense that it would be directly associated with Castro’s presidency).
Castro’s retirement is the perfect excuse for those supporting the embargo (knowing that it doesn’t work) for purely electoral reasons.
I always wonder how ordinary Cubans would view a lifting of the embargo.
If one assumes that Cuban exiles and Cuban Americans will go back to the island en masse, will there be resentment toward the wealthy (and relatively wealthy) coming back to claim a piece of the island? How will property rights issues be handled?
What of American tourists? There is already extreme segregation in the tourism/hotel industry that has drawn Cuban ire...do they think it will improve when they look at models like the Dominican Republic coming to Cuba?
Will the allure of American dollars be enough for the average citizen to swallow what could be a socially bitter pill, albeit financially beneficial?
Of course, there are a couple of factors that bear examining.
1. How smart will the Cuban government be in adapting/hybridizing any possible embargo into the system.
2. The possibility that only a relatively small amount of Cubans will go back to permanently live on the island. Rather, most will choose to stay (especially the families that have built up roots & political power in FL the last 50 years) and Cuba/Florida becomes a porous border like Mexico/US and a potential source illegal immigration.
above post should be "adapting/hybridizing any possible embargo LIFTING into the system."
We need to separate lifting the embargo from political liberalization. Lifting the embargo will have no effect on claims for property, etc. because current Cuban law will remain the same. That issue will be determined in large part on how the regime changes (i.e. slow liberalization or collapse).
you're right, I guess I am getting ahead of myself. rightly or wrongly, i think it is assumed that trade will force political liberalization.
should we look at models like Vietnam instead?
Given the fact that all the new leaders chosen yesterday are old guard, we will likely need to wait for the next generation.
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