Some thoughts on the Betancourt rescue
What a really amazing story. The highest profile hostage in the world freed without anyone harmed or even a shot fired, and the highest profile guerrilla group in the world tricked, fooled, and humiliated. How quickly before this becomes a movie? Some thoughts:
--Ingrid Betancourt says she still wants to run for president. There is no bigger name recognition. She goes straight to front runner status.
--Uribe has still not come out and ruled out trying for more years in office. This is the sort of success that could potentially get him the support he needs. Hopefully he won't, but he is in a position of political strength that is the envy of presidents everywhere.
--This could well prompt more members of the FARC to desert. If you have to sacrifice everything for a cause, it must be demoralizing to see it rudderless and clueless. It will be tempting to get out while the getting is good.
--The organizers of the protest march in March against the FARC want to have another one.
--Lastly, the Venezuelan Information Office blog says it all would've happened sooner if Chávez had been involved. I haven't heard anything from Chávez himself. In reference to Chávez and Correa, Betancourt said she admires "what Chavez and Correa have done for all of us, but it is key that they support our democracy. In the same way they were elected in a democracy, they have to give the Colombians a chance to solve our problems by ourselves."
7 comments:
What was Betancourts political base when she ran for president?
Is she popular enough to present real problems for Uribe if he tries for a third term?
No, she is not
I disagree. Especially now that she has garnered such attention and Uribe is plagued by legal challenges to his Presidency.
At this point, IMO speculation is really premature. The Uribe issue is unresolved, and Betancourt will certainly need to rest and recuperate for a long time before entering politics.
The movie story could get even better if Mr. Uribe decides to stand for another term and then has to face Ingrid Betancourt as a possible Presidential opponent...talk about irony.
I'm hoping that the Colombian people snap to and make it cleard to Uribe that a third term is not a good idea.
I'd guess that a lot of people would push Betancourt to run (I for one, would), but as Greg says, it's a bit soon to know where she's gonna go with her life.
Another possibility to run next time is MinDefense Santos. He's flirted with the candidacy before (back in the 90's), he's well known, interestingly, he was the guy who welcomed Betancourt off the airplane and stood next to her during her press conference, not Uribe. It might have been that Uribe didn't want to be there in case things went wrong, but Santos definitely got the national and international quality time standing next to Ingrid....
I agree that Santos is probably a more likely next president than Betancourt. In addition to what the previous comment noted about Santos, he also announced the death of Tirofijo (or was it of the other leader they killed in Ecuador?) without even telling Uribe first (supposedly). Looks like someone positioning himself to me. (For whatever it is worth, I interviewed him many years ago, and got the rather immediate impression that he was going to be president some day).
As for Betancourt, her party was pretty insignificant. I'll believe she could emerge as a serious candidate when I see some evidence. Besides, 2010 is a long way off. I could imagine the Polo Democratico choosing here to boost their own profile, but the Polo has some other ambitious candidates waiting in line. Of course, none of them have been held captive for six years by the Farc...
In any event, the next president is not coming from the Polo, unless the Liberals also throw their support that way. Now that would be interesting (and not totally out of the question).
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