Venezuela without Chávez

Daniel Hellinger has an interesting analysis of the potential future of Venezuelan politics in the latest issue of LASA Forum, "A Future Without Chávez?" His basic argument is that Chávez could potentially lose the next election because there is some discontent at the grassroots level, and there is the problematic strategy of borrowing against future oil export earnings.  Nonetheless, the opposition as yet has little to offer those Venezuelans who feel they have benefited from Chávez's programs.

What he does not do, however, is address the statements periodically emitted by the executive branch and the military about not accepting an opposition victory.  How smooth can we expect a transition to a Venezuela where Chávez is not president?  Hellinger is an expert on Venezuelan politics so I would have loved to read what he had to say on that.