Mexican candidate numbers

Enrique Peña Nieto has a hard time keeping his foot out of his mouth, which may account for a dip in the polls. Still, he has 42 percent support versus Josefina Vázquez at 21 percent (other PAN hopefuls are much lower than that) and AMLO at 17 percent.

With that kind of lead, along with disaffection with the PAN and the general sense that AMLO is off his rocker, it is hard to see Peña Nieto losing regardless of his too-frequent gaffes (this is a particularly funny one).

I can't help but wonder what the scenario would be if the PRD's candidate were Marcelo Ebrard.

See also Americas Quarterly blog.