Monday, March 31, 2014

Brazil and Venezuela

Brian Winter makes some good points about Brazil's position vis-a-vis the Venezuelan crisis. I had argued not long ago that there was really no evidence to suggest Brazil was critical of the U.S. response to Venezuela, and what he does is show how Brazil shows clear signs of wariness toward Maduro.

The upshot here is that regional support is by no means unanimous and it is by no means strong. What remains to be seen is whether a statement like this helps convince Maduro that some sort of mediation is necessary:

"The path Maduro is on is full of risks," one official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. "We've been trying to encourage him to change."

I still can't think of any means except mediation to resolve this in the short term. The protests may eventually peter out but they've lasted a long time. The government has not been serious about dialogue despite its rhetorical insistence that it is (which is accompanied by insults, often bizarre) and the opposition seems to remain convinced that it's popular despite plenty of evidence to the contrary. So how much are Latin American governments, and especially Brazil given its influence, working behind the scenes toward this end?


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