Sunday, June 08, 2014

FARC Election Ceasefire

The FARC declared a three week ceasefire and criticized Oscar Iván Zuluaga for being a fascist tool (here is the full text in Spanish on the FARC's website). The runoff election is June 15.

The logical questions: who does this help? Or does it even matter?

My immediate thought relates to power politics. The FARC just made a unilateral concession based largely on credible threats from Zuluaga to mpose much stricter conditions on the peace process. That provides a boost to Zuluaga, who (obviously with Alvaro Uribe whispering in his ear) makes the guerrillas nervous. I could imagine conservative voters in particular liking the idea of making them more nervous. On the other hand, the FARC has declared ceasefires before, even around elections, so this is not unprecedented even absent Zuluaga.

Does it matter? When the polls are neck and neck, it definitely could. One important factor is participation--turnout was not high (40% of eligible voters) in the first round so does this bring out conservatives in higher numbers? I have a harder time thinking of why this would increase turnout from centrists.









5 comments:

Vicente Duque 4:53 PM  

Dear Mr Greg Weeks

I am kneeling on the floor and asking God for 8% advantage for Mr Zuluaga, that is one million votes. I am not asking God for two million because we should not abuse His Mercy and Patience.

The 8% is consistent with the best pollsters "Napoleón Franco Ipsos" and another private poll of an American Pollster based in New York City.

Other pollsters think that the contest is tight or give a little advantage to Mr Santos. But they failed miserably to predict the first round.

Colombia is a little flame of Democracy and Freedom in the strong winds of Latin American Despotism and Tyranny. So this would be a cause of celebration for all Good People around the world, including NATO ( NORTH ATLANTIC TREATY ORGANIZATION ) that are friends of Colombia. Colombia has been in NATO Air Force Exercises in Canada and the USA during the past three years.

I hope that Americans and Canadians can forget for an hour their very grave concerns with the Ukraine, Syria, Palestine, etc .... and uncork a bottle of champagne if my happy hopes become true reality.

Otherwise if I fail in my predictions it will be "weeping there, and the gnashing of teeth" and another pawn falls to Communism in the brutal form of Castro-Chavismo.

Anita 6:38 PM  

Just curious if this analysis also applies to the truth commission that both sides agreed upon or will some voters view this as a sign that the Santos peace talks are making progress?

Greg Weeks 3:58 PM  

I don't think that has the same impact, and it doesn't really represent such a clear FARC concession. In other words, it may mean there is some progress but I don't see how it would prompt people to vote.

Vicente Duque 7:18 PM  


Anita and Mr Weeks :

Democracy and Freedom requires "Separation of Powers" as formulated by Montesquieu in "The Spirit of Laws", book published in 1748.

Juan Manuel Santos is destroying that Independence of Justice with a General Prosecutor, a despicable man that is his "servant maid". The bald man is his henchman to take his rivals and opposition to jail, á la Venezuela.

Don't be fooled by the word "Paz" ( Peace ). Don't be like Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, Tony Blair, David Cameron and a lot of guys in Northern Ireland, and Ireland. These men have eaten the crap of Santos, and that means Peace without Justice, in a single word that is called IMPUNITY.


MR Vulgarity :

Santos is the World Champion of verbal vulgarity, grossness, impoliteness, crudity, roughness, rudeness, meanness, discourtesy.

Santos calls Uribe, Zuluaga and the "Uribistas" as "Vultures of Death", "Enemies of Peace", Nazis, Right Wing Extremists, Neo Fascists, Ultra Right, "computer hackers" and "internet criminals"... . The same for the little despicable bald man ( his pocket General Prosecutor ) that frames the uribistas and sets up traps to jail people.

So you see. Santos is not Mandela, Gandhi of Martin Luther King. He has nothing to do with these great men.

The problem with Santos is that he is a Dolphin ( Prince Heir of France with a banner of a dolphin ). The much hated dolphins are the Aristocracy of Colombia and have ancestors in the Presidency or Cabinet Ministers of prominence.

They are Daddy Boys of Country Club, born in gold cradles with silver spoon. And at a boyish age are appointed in big posts of Government.

The House of Santos controls a Big Chunk of the Media : the Biggest Newspaper, TV Stations, Radio Stations, etc ...

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