China's Interest in Venezuela

China showing another sign that its patience with Venezuela is waning.

China is likely to extend an agreement providing crisis-stricken Venezuela with favorable loans repayment terms but will not lend fresh funds to President Nicolas Maduro’s government, according to sources in Caracas and Beijing familiar with the situation.

This should remind us of two key issues with regard to Latin America-China relations.

First, China's interest in Latin America is material, not ideological. I've been making this argument for a long time and have not seen anything to really challenge it. China has nothing to gain politically and a lot to lose financially from Venezuela, so its strategy appears to be avoiding outright collapse in order to facilitate loan repayment. Even then, I think the Chinese leadership figures it can work with the opposition just fine if it comes to that. If Maduro falls, then for the Chinese it is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

Second, China is still wary of becoming too politically involved in Latin America. For all the talk of challenging U.S. hegemony, there are few signs that China is going beyond its own narrow interests such as maintaining access to primary products and countering Taiwanese influence.