Venezuela Oil Sanctions

The Trump administration is seriously considering sanctions targeting Venezuelan oil. The basic strategy is to make people's lives miserable enough that they rise up.

Some administration officials are worried that Venezuela’s problems are becoming the new normal. People inside, who want change, whether it’s the opposition, military or private sector need to take more aggressive steps, another administration official said. 

“We need the people to stand up,” the official said. “it’s not going to be an external force that creates change.”

I like that they're rejecting an "external force" but this is not nearly so simple. The U.S. has already sanctioned dozens of officials, making them less likely to overthrow Maduro. Further, deprivation alone doesn't automatically do it. Keep Zimbabwe in mind there, or even Cuba (where many thought regime change imminent when the Soviet Union disappeared).

I've now been posting about Venezuela sanctions for over four years and my thoughts haven't changed all that much. The most likely outcome is suffering and no regime change. Yes, there could be a straw that breaks the camel's back, but the chance of change is just not high.