Evo in Argentina

Evo Morales is currently in Argentina and met with MAS leaders to come up with the "ten commandments" of the 2020 election.

It's all about unity, revolutionary spirit, self-criticism, inclusion, and the like. But the biggest question that obviously cannot be discussed publicly is what Evo's own role will be not just in 2020 but beyond. It seems unlikely he will run in 2020 and although I have not seen anything concrete, public comments suggest he might be blocked entirely. The interim government is clearly scared of him politically and has issued an arrest warrant for sedition. It has also accused him of terrorism.

But what about the longer term? The key political problem has been that Evo did not groom political successors and then leave power. What is his version of the "consulta orgánica en las bases para una candidatura que exprese unidad de nuestro pueblo"? Of course, in 2016 he asked Bolivians if he could run for a fourth term and they said no.

Even more interesting will be if he does not run and a MAS candidate wins. As we've seen so clearly in Colombia and Ecuador, you can groom successors but you cannot control them.