Peaceful Transition in Venezuela?

I love intelligent arguments that go against conventional wisdom. So I recommend Mark Feierstein's take that the transition in Venezuela could be peaceful. Feierstein is an extremely experienced Latin American expert who worked in the Obama administration. He doesn't claim it's certain or easy, but that it's more possible than people might think.

Conventional wisdom holds that Venezuela is deeply polarized, the military complicit and entrenched, and organized crime rampant such that a power vacuum will foster violence. To that point, here is what I think is the trickiest part:

A stable transition depends, therefore, on the military’s willingness to accept civilian, democratic rule and confront irregular forces, including those with which it has previously collaborated.

 

Feierstein notes that military leaders have been approached about some kind of amnesty. It would have to be extensive. He does not mention Cuba's role in intelligence and the military, and to what degree their influence would be a problem. Many in the military will lose a lot and be unhappy about it.

Militaries are also deeply nationalist. No one in the military can be happy with the Trump administration saying that Venezuela "stole" oil and land from the United States. Ceding power now also has a whiff of accepting the very imperialism that Hugo Chávez fought against.

If Trump's threats (though how many times can you say "I am not ruling out war" before you're ignored?) and intercepting oil tankers lead the military to accept transition and Marina Corina Machado takes power without violence, the president really will merit that FIFA peace prize.