Trump's Options in Venezuela

Over five years later, I am back, at least periodically. We are witnessing some of the most fascinating events in the recent history of U.S.-Latin American relations and I can’t help but want to write about it.

President Donald Trump’s policy toward Venezuela is a gamble that has put him in a political bind.

If his goal is to reduce the flow of fentanyl and/or cocaine into the United States, then he cannot achieve it since neither comes in any quantity to the United States from Venezuela. Fentanyl comes primarily from Mexico and Asia, while Venezuelans mostly traffic cocaine to Europe and the Caribbean. Blowing up more boats may be dramatic, but it serves no obvious strategic purpose.

If his goal is to overthrow President Nicolás Maduro, he is raising the stakes while holding a weak hand. The core dilemma is that the United States has almost no leverage over Venezuela anymore. Since the U.S. has already imposed harsh economic sanctions, a wide range of individual sanctions against government officials, and has engaged in failed covert action, there are no more punitive actions available except armed force.

The president has four main options.

Force Maduro Out of Power Through Threats. It appears that President Trump hoped that threats of invasion, allegedly combined with a promise for Maduro’s safe exile in another country, would dislodge the dictator. This is not necessarily impossible, but there is no sign of it occurring. This tactic can continue for some length of time but eventually will require rethinking if it doesn’t achieve its goal because the credibility of the threats will disappear.

Back Down and Declare Victory. If President Trump chooses not to invade and to allow Maduro to remain in power, he runs the risk of appearing weak and indecisive both domestically and abroad, particularly given how heated his rhetoric has been. Nonetheless, he can declare that attacks on boats have achieved his goal of reducing drug trafficking. He can also declare victory on the “Cartel de los Soles,” which he claims Maduro operates, since it actually does not exist.

It is politically unappealing but has the benefit of being easy, and the president could simply pivot to another issue. He can wait for a short national political attention span to move on with him. After all, Venezuela is only in the news so much because of Trump’s threats. It is likely the least risky approach in the long run. 

Airstrikes Without Invasion. The president could launch missiles into Venezuela, thus using direct armed force (and the threat of more) without committing U.S. troops to invasion. This could be combined with some type of additional covert action, which ironically President Trump has discussed publicly. Again, it is not impossible that Maduro would flee the country, but it is not likely. Instead, more Venezuelans would certainly leave (almost eight million have done so already), thus creating new humanitarian challenges.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration would face serious backlash in the U.S., where even Republican lawmakers are already investigating whether the attacks on Venezuelan boats might constitute a crime. It would also undermine relations with allies, including in Latin America.

Invasion, aka Boots on the Ground. If the president chooses invasion, U.S. troops will find themselves in a difficult situation even though there likely will be minimal military resistance. Over time, criminal groups have become deeply entrenched in Venezuela and will fight for their survival and profit. Countless security officials are complicit in regime abuses, making surrender less appealing. Plus, the regime enjoys substantial intelligence support from Cuba and Russia, making invasion and occupation that much trickier.

Such an invasion could generate immediate “mission accomplished” headlines, but would require months of troop presence, combined with substantial financial assistance for a new government. Some U.S. soldiers will lose their lives. During the 1989 invasion of Panama, a much smaller country, 23 soldiers died. That conflicts directly with President Trump’s own promises and the desires of his base, which is to limit sending U.S. dollars abroad and engaging in extended wars.

President Trump’s policy toward Venezuela is a gamble with long odds of winning. To paraphrase Kenny Rogers, we do not know whether the president will hold them or fold them. But even a “win” of forcing out Maduro will leave a host of new problems for the president to deal with.