Egypt and Latin America

Silvia Viña at Global Voices Online links to a number of blog posts, including mine, that compare the situation in Egypt with Latin America.  Some, like Boz, ask whether a similar situation could occur in Latin America now.  I see that as unlikely in large part because it already happened.  The past riots in Caracas and the protests in Bolivia and Ecuador, among others, uprooted deeply entrenched and corrupt regimes and installed very different ones that currently enjoy more popular support.  Later in Venezuela, the opposition tried to launch such a movement itself, failed, and then gave up the mass protest strategy.  I think the main current comparison to be made is with Cuba, where like in Egypt you have a long-standing personalistic dictatorship.  However, Cuba is even more repressive than Egypt, so the massive movement of people simply wouldn't be allowed, and it is hard to imagine security forces simply standing around.

So at least in my opinion the historical analogies--while imperfect--are best equipped to shed some light on the different possible directions Egypt might go.  If there is a contagion effect of some sort, I am not sure where we would likely see it.

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Piñera and Bachelet

Sebastián Piñera's approval rating dropped to 41% in January 2011.  Curiously, right about this same time in her presidency Michelle Bachelet started facing a similar crisis of confidence.  In January 2007 she fell to 47%, and then fell into a slide that brought down to 35% in September.  Of course, we need to remember that she ended her presidency at 83%.

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Hegemony and omnipotence

Media commentary on Egypt is echoing past arguments about Somoza's Nicaragua, Batista's Cuba, and the Shah's Iran (among others).  All of them confuse U.S. hegemony with omnipotence, and fail to comprehend the consequences of their policy prescriptions.  I thought of this as I happened to see Cal Thomas' opinion piece as I read today's Charlotte Observer.

The argument, made most prominently in the past by Jeane Kirkpatrick (which is why I have students in my U.S.-Latin American Relations class read her), goes along the following lines:

First, procedural democracy (or Dahl's basic idea of polyarchy) is not possible in these countries.

Second, the United States has the power to keep these authoritarian governments in power.

Third, it is necessary to keep those pro-U.S. authoritarian governments in power, because if they fall, an anti-U.S. totalitarian dictatorship will take its place.

Fourth, as a result the United States should support the authoritarian government's efforts to repress dissent as much as possible.

Fifth, if the U.S. does so, then the status quo will be maintained and the protests will disappear.

This is a vision where the U.S. controls all events, and mass protests are simple manipulations that do not reflect true popular opinion.  As such, they can be crushed without consequence, and neither U.S. national security nor the positive image of the U.S. will suffer.

It is, in short, a mirage.

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More on 287(g)

The Migration Policy Institute just published an extensive study on the 287(g) program.  It has a number of findings, but a key one is that contrary to the government's stated aims, the program does not target criminal offenders, and tends to be oriented toward tossing people in jail.  Obviously, a major concern about 287(g) is that it would give law enforcement carte blanche to stop anyone anywhere for any reason based on a presumption of being in the United States illegally, thus fostering an environment of fear and mistrust of law enforcement.

Overall, the conclusion is that the program can be implemented in a way that targets criminal offenders and builds  bridges to the Latino community.  At present, however, there is too little attention being paid a) to the different ways 287(g) is implemented; and b) the specific pros and cons of all those different ways.

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Private in Cuba

Check out the list of 178 activities that Cubans can now do privately for profit.  Bill collector seems perhaps the most un-socialist.  Meanwhile, people who take care of public places--both bathroom attendants and park caretakers--can now make a profit doing so.

And if you want a sense of the economic situation in Cuba, look at the list of jobs that repair something, including disposable lighters.  Yes, even those need repair in Castro's Cuba.

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Palestinians in Latin America

Here is a new and bizarre twist to the Palestinian-Latin America connection:

The United States proposed giving Palestinian refugees land in South America as a radical solution to a problem that has haunted Middle East peace talks for decades.

Condoleezza Rice, the Bush administration's secretary of state, wanted to settle displaced Palestinians in Argentina and Chile as an alternative to letting them return to former homes in Israel and the occupied territories. Rice made the proposal in a June 2008 meeting with US, Israeli and Palestinian negotiators in Berlin, according to minutes of the encounter seen by the Guardian.

...

The proposal seems based on the fact that Chile has a large Palestinian community dating back a century and, like Argentina, has large tracts of sparsely populated land.

Did anyone ask whether Palestinians would prefer to be shipped out, or whether a very large number of non-Spanish speaking Muslims would automatically be welcomed?  I suppose it is worth at least discussing all sorts of potential solutions, but this one seems particularly outlandish.

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Nicaragua and Egypt

It is impossible not to make analogies between the current situation in Egypt and the implosion of dictatorships in Latin America.  Anastasio Somoza in particular comes to mind.  Broadly speaking, the U.S. had supported a dictatorship for decades because it was a strategic ally, then internal opposition began to boil, hoping to copy the toppling of another repressive regime in the region.

There are, however, also very important differences.  One prominent difference is the attitude of the U.S. government.  In that regard, Somoza would agree 100% with Joe Biden:

"The Admiral came back to the proposal, which was simply that my family and I had to leave the country.  I was becoming wearisome of this contumacious proposal and said: "Look, Admiral, you people may think this government is a dictatorship, but your proposal has been handed down through every channel of government, as well as the leaders of the party, and not one person has accepted the proposal."  Then I told him that we didn't even have a small ripple of support for the proposal.  I told him that in my meetings with all of the leaders in the government, the party, and the Army, there was unanimous opposition to the proposal."

--Anastasio Somoza, Nicaragua Betrayed p. 221

At least for now, the U.S. position is quite different:

Vice President Joe Biden offered his take on the protests in Egypt, saying the current protests should not cause Egyptian Prsident Hosni Mubarak to resign.

Speaking in response to a question from Newshour‘s Jim Lehrer, Mr. Biden stopped short of calling for Mr. Mubarak to resign amidst the protests.

“I think the time has come for President Mubarak to begin to move in the direction that – to be more responsive to some… of the needs of the people out there,” Mr. Biden said.

Mr.  Biden  added that he does not consider the Egyptian president a “dictator.”

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Obama and El Salvador

If there is one thing all media outlets can agree on, it is that they have no idea why President Obama is going to El Salvador.

--The Wall Street Journal just says he's going to South America

--Ditto for Bloomberg, though at least they have a sentence or two on El Salvador

--UPI focuses on the unvisited countries that are ticked off, figuring they are more important

--At least Fox News Latino (yes, such a thing exists) mentions the importance of migrants

--Voice of America disagrees, saying it is about crime

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Copper Law

The infamous Chilean Copper Law has been reformed, though not removed.  To provide more transparency, its management is moving from the Superior Council of National Defense to the Finance Ministry.  This type of reform has been in the works for a while, but accelerated due to a recent controversy over transparency that led to the resignation of Defense Minister Jaime Ravinet and his replacement by Andrés Allamand, an old hand in Renovación Nacional.

This is a win for President Piñera and the center-right, as they show themselves committed to an issue the Concertación had struggled in vain to reform, and can point to it as indicating more transparency.  However, I blogged almost exactly a year ago about how Piñera has indicated he wants to get rid of the Copper Law entirely, but obviously that did not happen.

A real victory for civilian supremacy over the armed forces, however, would be to remove the law entirely.  It may take a Nixon-China moment, where only a president of the right could get it done.  For fiscal conservatives, it does not make sense to throw sums of money quite that large at the military.  I'm not sure, though, whether Piñera's willingness to take a smaller step right now indicates this is off the table again for a while.

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Immigration and the SOTU

I don't tend to get too worked up about State of the Union addresses, the content of which I tend to forget a day or two later.  However, here is the immigration mention, which focuses largely on the DREAM Act though oddly without mentioning it:

One last point about education. Today, there are hundreds of thousands of students excelling in our schools who are not American citizens. Some are the children of undocumented workers, who had nothing to do with the actions of their parents. They grew up as Americans and pledge allegiance to our flag, and yet they live every day with the threat of deportation. Others come here from abroad to study in our colleges and universities. But as soon as they obtain advanced degrees, we send them back home to compete against us. It makes no sense.

Now, I strongly believe that we should take on, once and for all, the issue of illegal immigration. And I am prepared to work with Republicans and Democrats to protect our borders, enforce our laws and address the millions of undocumented workers who are now living in the shadows. (Applause.) I know that debate will be difficult. I know it will take time. But tonight, let's agree to make that effort. And let's stop expelling talented, responsible young people who could be staffing our research labs or starting a new business, who could be further enriching this nation. (Applause.)

It is the sort of mention that shows people he is paying attention, but will have no impact on actually getting anything passed.  When I first blogged about a SOTU five years ago, and every year since, either Bush or Obama has mentioned immigration in some way without getting anything done.

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Harry Reid and Latin America

Americas Quarterly sent me a forthcoming interview with Harry Reid that will appear in their magazine, allowing me to post it here (I am happy to plug them as they do good work, and I would also recommend their blog, which you can access on their site).  They sent it to me as a PDF, which unfortunately I have been unable to successfully upload in any way to the blog.  So I will quote from it and encourage you to check it out when it is published in a few days.

I feel it is a revealing interview in the sense that it shows both political impotence and lack of policy direction.

My goal is still to pass comprehensive immigration reform that secures our borders, punishes employers who exploit immigrant labor and undercut American wages, and requires those living in the shadows to register with the government, pay fines, pay taxes, learn English, and then go to the back of the line. My hope is that the Republicans will work with us on a comprehensive approach that addresses the many complex components necessary to fix our broken system.

Keep hoping.  So what will our U.S. policy priorities be for Latin America?  Well, he can't name any.

I have traveled extensively in the region. My first two foreign trips as Majority Leader were to Latin America because I believed we needed to refocus on our neighborhood. It is precisely because we share strong cultural and economic ties with the region that Latin America should be a natural priority for us.

So taking a few trips is the same as establishing priorities.  Well, what about those people who want an FTA with Panama and/or Colombia?  Well, not going to happen.

It is my understanding the Obama administration is working with the leadership of Colombia and Panama to address different areas of concern for members of Congress. These discussions, and the outcomes they will lead to, are key to finding a way forward with those agreements. As we have seen before, sending an agreement up before building support in Congress is counterproductive. At the end of the day, what we want are agreements that are fair to American workers, farmers and businesses and that deal fairly with our friends and allies.

I have often argued that it is better to do nothing than "do something" just for the sake of it, which often creates blowback.  But this suggests an almost complete lack of even thinking about what could be done.

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Juxtaposition: NC and immigration

Interest in denying government services and jobs to illegal immigrants percolates in the legislature. Such a measure has a chance to pass this session. A proposal that has had bipartisan support requires contractors on government projects to use a federal online program that confirms employment eligibility (today's Charlotte Observer).

AND

Moving forward, we will look for more ways to reduce the regulatory burden on small businesses (incoming N.C. House Speaker Thom Tillis in today's Charlotte Observer)

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Colombian flowers

Really interesting, and I think even-handed, article in The Smithsonian about the flower industry in Colombia, which is huge (and, if the article is accurate, largely initiated in the late 1960s by an American horticulture grad student).  Basically, conditions are not great but have been improving a lot.  The practical lesson is that you should look for flowers that are certified, which means they were grown with labor protections and in an environmentally sustainable manner.

The global marketplace will always demand cheaper flowers, and Colombian farms must compete with growers in other nations, including neighboring Ecuador and rising flower power Kenya. Increasingly, though, there’s another factor flower growers must consider: independent flower certification programs, including Fair Trade flowers, VeriFlora and the Rainforest Alliance, which are working to certify farms in Colombia.

Such programs have been key to Colombia’s business in Europe, where customers pay close attention to the source of their flowers. The U.S. trade in certified flowers is tiny by comparison—my Mother’s Day bouquet bore no certification notice—but growing. “Sustainability is an attribute that consumers are seeking,” says Linda Brown, creator of the certification standards for VeriFlora, which is based in Emeryville, California. “When you are looking 10 to 20 years out, sustainability will become the way that people do business.”

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Quote of the day: Haiti

Barr "will be representing" Duvalier "in bringing his message of hope to the world," the former Republican congressman's website says.

This can't be serious, yet it is.  Here is his website if you can stomach it.

h/t Kevin Grier aka Angus

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U.S. and Mexico

Hillary Clinton will be traveling to Mexico.  From the State Department's press release:

Secretary of State Clinton and Secretary Espinosa will meet in Guanajuato to discuss key issues that the United States and Mexico face individually and as partners, including joint cooperation to combat organized crime, strengthening the competitiveness of our two economies, modernizing the border between our countries and advancing the global climate change agenda after the Cancun Summit.

Conspicuous by its absence is mention of joint cooperation to reduce drug demand.  I wouldn't mind tossing in joint cooperation to understand what immigration solutions work and which don't.  Unfortunately, all reporters were interested in was, in essence, whether we could copy Plan Colombia in Mexico.

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Ecuador ambassador

I had the great privilege to meet and hear a talk on campus by the Ambassador of Ecuador to the U.S., Luis Gallegos, who has a very distinguished career.  I was really impressed, because here is an individual who has been in his position since even before Rafael Correa's term (if the dates I am seeing are correct) and yet he is very direct and even blunt to a refreshing degree.  "Blunt" and "diplomat" are normally mutually exclusive if someone wants to be in the position for any length of time.  Yet there is no bluster--he is very articulate and reasoned from long years of working on human rights, particularly the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities.  The Allegro Foundation, which is focused on disabled children, funded the visit, which also included the Ambassador from Monaco.

In general, I felt his view was very similar to that of Correa (for example, see this post from last year about really interesting Correa comments), namely that there is an admiration for the U.S. (that came out in many different comments) but deep frustration with U.S. policy.  He made a careful but to my mind clear statement that Ecuador should not be lumped in with its neighbors politically.  Correa is neither Chávez nor Morales.

A colleague and I were able to have a quick chat with him prior to his talk, where he discussed the demand side of drugs, which for him is the central bilateral problem.  Obviously, U.S. policy toward Colombia spills over in a massive way into Ecuador, which is spending an enormous amount of money to deal with both guerrillas and migrants.

But in his talk, he began by discussing human rights, since he worked in the UN to create the declaration about the rights of the disabled.  To paraphrase him, "I was idealistic, and felt no one could opposed the rights of the disabled.  Then I ran into the U.S. delegation" (which, unlike many other countries, took a few years to ratify).  He then talked about security (i.e. the effects of drug trafficking) and the effects of the Colombian displaced in Ecuador.

And, lastly, he made the point that he could not think of any other country than the U.S. where an ambassador was told he needed to hire lawyers and sign on with a lobbying firm to get his government's views made to legislators.

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Don't assimilate too much

Jonathan Chait and Ezra Klein disagree with each other about Jeb Bush's take on assimilation.  With regard to immigration and assimilation, I wish more people would pay attention to the social science literature (and Samuel Huntington does not count in that regard given that his book is essentially a long and unsubstantiated rant).  We know that recent immigrants from Latin America are healthier than the rest of us, and less likely to commit crimes.  What we should really be talking about, therefore, is how to stop people from assimilating too much in certain ways.

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James Stavridis' Partnership for the Americas

Admiral James Stavridis wrote a book, Partnership for the Americas: Western Hemisphere Strategy and U.S. Southern Command, about his time as head of the U.S. Southern Command, which is available  free of charge as a PDF.  I would not say it is earth shattering, but it is well worth checking out, if for no other reason than to get a sense of how a high level military official views Latin America.  It shows clear knowledge of the region (not something we can take for granted) and avoids exaggeration of security threats (Hugo Chávez's name does not even appear, for example).  I also like the fact that even the Latino population in the U.S. comes into the equation to explain Latin America's importance:

Continuing with this human metaphor, one might argue that the most important linkage between a nation and the nations around it and around the world is demographics. According to the August 2008 U.S. Census Bureau report, about 15 percent of us—just over 46 million—are of Hispanic descent. When undocumented Spanish-speaking workers are added to the count, it is fair to assume that the United States is now the second-largest Spanish speaking country in the world, only after Mexico. For added perspective, more Hispanics live in the United States today than there are Canadians in Canada or Spaniards in Spain. Meanwhile, the purchasing power of our burgeoning Hispanic population is pushing toward 1 trillion dollars, annually (p. 3).

Other themes include rejecting the notion that Latin America is just a "backyard," that drug demand needs to be taken into consideration along with supply, that the deep historical roots of poverty need to be acknowledged, and that using the military in drug operations is not desirable.  He even notes how Daniel Ortega was glad to see the USNS Comfort (p. 60).

I disagree with the notion that Islamic terrorism is a growing threat--we've been hearing that since about September 12, 2001 and have precious little evidence.  Vigilance is fine, but it is overblown.  Also, I don't think you will find many people who agree that Plan Colombia is "a relatively modest program" (p. 17) and he mentions the displaced only in passing despite the fact that it is a massive humanitarian disaster.

Agree or disagree with his various points, though, it is nice to see someone at that level write a book like this.

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Sanctions Ros-Lehtinen style

From Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, I learn that a) the U.S. needs to stick to its principles, even when that is unpopular; and b) our policy toward Venezuela will be based on "practical reasons" (like the flow of oil).  Basically, she wants to discuss sanctions if they have little impact on the United States, which further means her preferred policies will both make the U.S. look bad and fail to achieve U.S. policy goals.  This should come as no surprise, as she believes our current policy toward Cuba should be considered successful.

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No more bricks in the virtual wall

Remarkable.  A boondoggle of a government plan actually gets shut down instead of continuing to throw good money after bad.  It was halted for review last March, and now the virtual fence is no more.

The Obama administration canceled Friday the troubled, billion-dollar "virtual fence" project along the U.S. border with Mexico and said it will turn to other security measures to better guard the desert region.

The SBInet project, begun in 2006 and run by Boeing, was designed to pull together video cameras, radar, sensors and other technologies to catch illegal immigrants and smugglers trying to cross the porous border.

But it faced setbacks, missed deadlines and cost overruns. The Department of Homeland Security said the project spent $1 billion to cover just 53 miles in Arizona.

The virtual fence was never going to work.  Almost four years (and over $1 billion dollars) ago I poked fun at the head of the Border Patrol, who argued that the virtual fence would detect 95 percent of illegal border crossings.  That was so obviously false.

So now we can feel relief that it was stopped and/or embarrassment that it was ever started.

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Travel changes

The Obama administration took a positive but very tentative step by scaling back George W. Bush's travel restrictions to Cuba.  The administration felt even that was too controversial to try before the midterm elections.

It is so bizarre how hardliners believe that the status quo--which means keeping the dictatorship alive--is desirable.  From Ileana Ros-Lehtinen: "Loosening these regulations will not help foster a pro-democracy environment in Cuba."  The more appropriate question, however is how 50+ years of sanctions have fostered a pro-democracy environment.  If something has not worked for half a decade, it is worth trying something else.

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Chile and Palestinians 2

Fascinating article in the Jerusalem Post about the Chilean government's decision to recognize the Palestinian state.  Turns out Jewish leaders in Chile felt it was a victory of sorts.

When Brazil recognized Palestinian statehood in early December, Chile was ready to follow suit immediately, sources said. However, an important meeting between Chilean President Sebastian Pinera and former Spanish prime minister Jose Maria Aznar – who is a friend of Israel and happened to be visiting Chile at the time – combined with pressure from the local Jewish community and two late-night phone calls from Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to Pinera, managed to postpone the planned proclamation.

“It was a miracle it took so long for the proclamation to come out,” Zaliasnik said.

“We decided to fight the core issues: No to any reference to final-status boundaries on the Green Line or 1967 borders; that Palestinians had to negotiate directly with Israel; and third, that any Chilean statement explicitly recognize the right of Israel to live in secure borders. That’s what we were fighting for.”

And what now?

The next battleground between pro-Israel and pro- Palestinian groups over Latin American recognition of Palestinian statehood will be in Lima, Peru, where the third Latin American-Arab summit will be held in February.

“I feel Colombia won’t recognize Palestinian statehood,” Zaliasnik opined. “I read the quotes of the Colombian foreign minister in Bogota on the issue. My feeling is that Mexico could feel like it has to follow us, but they don’t have a Palestinian lobby. Peru doesn’t have a Palestinian lobby either, but they are hosting an Arab League summit, so it may affect Peruvian President Alan Garcia. Of the three, Peru is the most vulnerable.”

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Latin America and Palestinian state

Regarding Latin American recognition of the Palestinian state, I have tended to believe that there is little domestic resistance.  The Middle East is not very relevant to Latin American politics, and Jewish populations--which we would reasonably expect to be the most vocally opposed--are relatively small in most (though not all) countries.  Along these lines, I got an email from William Girard, a Ph.D. candidate in Anthropology at UC Santa Cruz who has done fieldwork in Honduras.  With his permission, I copy the following:

My research focuses on Pentecostal politics in Copán Ruinas, Honduras.  I was carrying out my fieldwork in Copán when the coup happened, so the bulk of my dissertation examines Pentecostal responses to the coup and its aftermath.  One of the focuses of my research is a set of doctrines that many Fundamentalist and Pentecostal throughout the hemisphere hold called "Christian Zionism."  The most important aspect of these doctrines for my research is the view that Jews remain the chosen people of God and, as such, receive Divine blessings. These Christians pay close attention to events in Israel, and have an enormous enthusiasm for that country. In sharp contrast, they view Arabs, and particularly Palestinians with a great deal of antipathy, regarding them as continually jealous of the blessings that Jews are said to receive.  While, as I mentioned, these views are fairly common among Fundamentalists and Pentecostals throughout the Hemisphere, they take on a particular character in Honduras, where Palestinians ("Turcos") play such a large role in the national economy (as I understand they do in Chile).  

I've been following your posts on L.A. governments recognizing a Palestinian state, and I have to imagine that the Pentecostal citizens of these countries are deeply opposed to this.  As I'm sure you know, the Protestant population in many L.A. countries is fairly large (around 15% in both Chile and Brazil).  While certainly not all of them would be Christian Zionists, I would think that the majority would be, and, hence, view the recognition of a Palestinian state with great alarm.

So there could well be more opposition than I would've argued, from Protestants, assuming further that a sizable number attach enough salience to it.  From a political perspective, the big question is whether that opposition translates into political pressure.

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Irresistible Forces

At long last, the book I wrote with my dad (John Weeks at San Diego State University) is officially out: Irresistible Forces: Explaining Latin American Migration to the United States and its Effects on the South, from University of New Mexico Press.  It makes the perfect gift for any occasion, and we all know Valentine's Day is coming up soon, or maybe a loved one's birthday.  Or, if you live in Charlotte, just make it a snow day treat for yourself.

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It's not good to be the King

John Boehner passed up one of the most vocal anti-immigrant voices, Steve King, for Chair of the Immigration Subcommittee of the House Judiciary Committee.  Obviously he's angry, and I hope he's right as he charges the following:

“John Boehner isn't very aggressive on immigration," King said, noting that the GOP "Pledge to America" barely mentions immigration or border security. "It's the tiniest section," he said.

It seems to be a sign, however small, that the Republican leadership wants to soften its tone on immigration.  That does not necessarily lead to commonsensical legislation, but it is better than nothing.  On the other hand, Boehner is someone who called the 2007 immigration reform bill a "piece of shit" so softening the tone does not come naturally.

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Latin America-Arab Summit

Even more Latin America-Middle East connection: the third Summit of Latin American and Arab Countries (ASPA) will take place in Lima next month.  Lula got the idea going in 2003, so as usual with the Middle East Brazil is taking the lead and other countries in the region are following.  Of course, the Palestinian issue will also be discussed about whether "to issue a final declaration recognising a sovereign and independent Palestinian state  in borders preceding June 4, 1967 with East Jerusalem as the Palestinian state's capital."

Approving such a declaration will be tricky, as it gets more specific than current declarations by Latin American governments.  The Chilean government carefully avoided specifying borders at all.

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Giffords and reason

The Gabrielle Giffords shooting is depressing for so many reasons.  In terms of the focus of this blog, she was a voice of reason on immigration, a representative who had a border district and even had an undergraduate degree in Latin American history, so understood the issue and stood firm against xenophobia and fear.  We need more knowledgeable, educated, measured, and reasonable people in Congress, and yet instead they become targets.

Pima County Sheriff Clarence Dupnik put it far better than I possibly could:

"When you look at unbalanced people, how they respond to the vitriol that comes out of certain mouths about tearing down the government. The anger, the hatred, the bigotry that goes on in this country is getting to be outrageous," the sheriff said. "And unfortunately, Arizona I think has become the capital. We have become the mecca for prejudice and bigotry."

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Quote of the day: Cuba

Fifty years after the break in relations, while Cuba is still ruled by a male, white, militaristic, totalitarian gerontocracy, Barack Obama is the president of the United States and Hillary Clinton the secretary of state. Which of my two countries is the revolutionary one?

--Roberto González Echevarria in the New York Times.  He left Cuba as a teenager and is now a professor at Yale.  It's been 50 years since President Eisenhower broke diplomatic relations just before leaving office.

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Piñera and Palestinians

A question that now several people have asked me is why did Sebastián Piñera choose to recognize the Palestinian state?  I think there are both domestic and international reasons, with the former being the most important.  There is political upside for Piñera in both respects with virtually no cost.

The domestic side is the large Palestinian population (always portrayed as the largest outside the Middle East).  Along those lines, here is an excerpt from an article in the UAE press of all places:

Representatives of the estimated 300,000 Chileans of Palestinian descent, including four senators and a number of deputies, are cautiously optimistic that years of lobbying within the Andean nation will bear fruit in 2011.

In November at a speech at the Palestinian Club of Chile, Mr Pinera said he supported an independent Palestinian state and added that he planned to visit soon, but was careful not to mention the borders.

This week Mr Pinera met the Palestinian Authority's president, Mahmoud Abbas, when both leaders attended the inauguration of Dilma Rousseff, Brazil's first female president. Mr Abbas took the opportunity to thank leaders from the region for recognising a Palestinian state with Brazil being the first country in the region to build a Palestinian Embassy.

"We have been doing a lot of meetings and a lot of work and a lot of declarations and we also have put some pressure on the foreign affairs minister and also on the president to recognise the Palestinian state with borders," said Mauricio Abu Ghosh, the president of the Palestinian Federation in Chile. "For us, that is the only way. Without borders, it is better to do nothing."

So the Chilean-Palestinian population has a political presence, and has been lobbying for some time.  Piñera can get a political boost--even if not huge--essentially for free (at a time when his approval ratings have dipped to 47 percent).  As far as I have seen, there is no domestic cost associated with it, i.e. a large of group of Chileans who will oppose him because of this move.

The international side also has benefits.  Unlike Brazil, Chile has not been trying to be a global political player (it has been focused almost entirely on trade) so I don't see international diplomatic projection as a reason.  I also do not believe that tweaking the nose of the United States is a reason (as it might be for, say, Bolivia).  Piñera feels friendly toward the U.S.  But he can show himself in solidarity with the rest of Latin America, and since he is a firm U.S. ally, the Obama administration will not look badly on him for doing so.

I do not know what Piñera's personal views are regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, or whether he has made public pronouncements prior to the past few months.  Regardless, there are non-trivial domestic and international benefits to be had, for free.

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Oscar Arias article

Oscar Arias has an article in Foreign Affairs exhorting change in Latin America.  Here are the main points:

Latin Americans must look in the mirror and confront the reality that many of our problems lie not in our stars but in ourselves. We must lose our fear of change. We must embrace entrepreneurship. We must learn to trust. We must strengthen our commitment to democracy and the rule of law. And we must abandon the military practices that continue to rub salt into the wounds of our past. Only then will the region finally attain the development it has so long sought.

Not terribly controversial, but I kept wondering who it is aimed at (or, rather, should be aimed at).  Latin America is the most unequal region in the world, more so even than sub-Saharan Africa.  Substantive political and economic change will be extremely difficult without explicitly recognizing that reality.  That is why militarism is embedded in political culture, that helps explain why people are less trusting, and that is one reason why clientelist ties become so firm.

So we can have lots of talk about how "Latin Americans" need to change, but the only way this will happen is if income inequality is reduced.  That means elites need to accept progressive tax laws (and, of course, collection!), increased spending on primary education (yes, you need to pay for poor people to go to school even if you don't like them very much), and other types of redistribution that are consistently blocked and even mocked.

To be fair, Arias mentions such things in passing:

The way to prevent that [authoritarianism] is to show the public that democracy works, that it truly can build more prosperous and equitable societies. Moving beyond political sclerosis, becoming more responsive to citizens' demands, and generating fiscal resources by taxing the wealthy are all essential steps to take in moving toward a true culture of liberty and progress.

But this article would be much more effective if it were addressed directly to the small percentage of Latin Americans who control the vast majority of the wealth and political power, telling them they--and not some vague catch-all "Latin American" individual--need to accept real change.

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U.S. and Venezuela

Richard Williamson offers a conservative critique of the Obama administration's policy toward Venezuela.  What it and other similar types of comments make clear, though, is that Chávez opponents in the United States have few specific policy alternatives.  Williamson catalogues problems in Venezuela, then writes the following:

Democracy must rise from the people of Venezuela, not be imposed from outside. Its exact form and facilities will be an outgrowth of the history, heritage, and habits of the Venezuelan people and not an identical copy of any other country’s practices and procedures

In that context of sovereignty, what exactly should the U.S. government do?  He does not provide even one example:

The United States should provide leadership in the Western Hemisphere and principled support for democracy and human rights in Venezuela.

OK, how?  He does not say.  In general, the conservative response to Venezuela is to copy the Cold War, but it would be nice to hear policy suggestions that don't involve emulating Henry Kissinger.

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Latin America and Palestinians 2

Quick plug for myself: I am quoted in this CNN story about Latin American governments recognizing the Palestinian state.  Not sure about the Rafael Correa photo, which makes it look somewhat like a story about baseball.

Update: The Los Angeles Times quotes me as well, though in an unusual way--they take a direct quote from this blog and then credit Two Weeks Notice rather than me as an individual.  I don't think that has happened before.

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Hispanic Republicans

Editorial from the Heritage Foundation on how Hispanics are conservative.  Nice try!

But here's what you won't hear: This conservative wave included some Hispanic-American voters. That fact inconveniently flouts the conventional wisdom - that liberal candidates can consider Hispanic votes to be in the bag. It interrupts the usual narrative. So it must be ignored or explained away.

This is juicy as unsubstantiated assertions go.  Liberals are ignoring inconvenient facts.  There must be a conspiracy, right?  Well, no.  The overwhelming majority of Latinos support the Democratic Party, and will do so for the foreseeable future to greater or lesser degrees.  Of course, this does not mean that all do, so there are plenty of Republicans as well, though they are the exception.

But this editorial goes even further, by saying without providing evidence that Hispanics are inherently more conservative than other people: "Conservative values run deep among Hispanics."  This is a jumbled mess of an argument, as "conservative values" can mean basically anything you want.  Regardless, we know that if we measure support for values by voting, then Hispanics support values associated with the Democratic Party, conservative or not.

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FTAs and drugs

It seems to be the time of year for U.S.-Latin American relations editorials.  Here is a new one in the Miami Herald from Robert Weiner Associates (which I am not familiar with).  As most do, it calls for passing FTAs with Colombia and Panama.  The logic, though, raises questions:

Because we want to stop the flow of drugs to the United States from the South, and alternative crops would reduce drug cultivation, it's common sense to do everything possible to promote legitimate-product trade deals with Latin America.

The problem, though, is that we passed free trade agreements with Mexico and with other Central American countries, yet cultivation has increased in Mexico, as has drug trafficking in Central America.  This is not to say that FTAs necessarily cause an increase in the flow of drugs, but I just don't think there is evidence that they decreases it.

I do agree with the idea of refocusing on the Peace Corps.  Too many people argue for big ticket diplomacy, where you announce some huge new initiative and then wait for applause (and, indeed, I think there tends to be too much emphasis on the U.S. getting credit as a goal in itself).

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Chile and Palestinians

According to the Palestinian Foreign Minister, Chile and Paraguay will soon become the latest Latin American countries to recognize the Palestinian state.  He added that Sebastián Piñera will visit the West Bank in the near future.  The last I had read, the Chilean government was thinking about it.  For a right of center government to do so would put an even greater stamp of unanimity on the issue.  Regardless, it makes sense for Chile, which has a very large Palestinian population.

The past several months have been interesting, as there is no obvious coordination but quite a few Latin American governments are suddenly recognizing the Palestinian state in a very short amount of time.

Previous posts here and here.

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Gasolinazo part 3

Evo Morales revoked the decree removing subsidies (and thereby drastically raising prices on fuel) after facing large scale protests.  The essential problem therefore remains--the government has popular subsidies that unfortunately also encourage smuggling and bleed money, both of which he mentioned in his remarks.  He noted that some adjustment will be necessary as a result, and that people will have to accept it because it will be in the best interests of the Bolivian state.  People love to label Evo Morales a populist, but these sorts of statements are almost the opposite.

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Ambassadoritis

The dispute between Venezuela and the United States over ambassadors borders on childish.  Larry Palmer made disparaging comments about Venezuelan politics, which included asserting a link between the Venezuelan government and the FARC.  It should be obvious to everyone that someone who made such comments publicly would never be able to work with the Venezuelan government, and therefore should not be ambassador.  But once that poor choice was made, the Obama administration does not want to look like it is backing down, and so instead has upped the ante by taking away the Venezuelan ambassador's visa.  But let's face it, you cannot cram an unwanted ambassador down a country's throat.

Now the Venezuelan government says the whole thing is about imperialism and aggression, with typical bluster.  I would argue that it is more about hegemony and exceptionalism than anything else.  Being the predominant power for so long has fostered the pervasive belief that our decisions are best, and that the views of Latin American governments are unimportant.  Take our chosen ambassador and shut up.

But this needs to get sorted out.  Larry Palmer is not going to work, while in my opinion Bernardo Alvarez Herrera has been a good ambassador (and for quite a long time), articulate and measured.  The Obama administration will take a political hit from Republicans who will say he is caving in to their second favorite hemispheric nemesis.  That result is far better than needlessly escalating a conflict that originated in Washington.

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Gasolinazo part 2

Some prominent Bolivian labor and environmental activists have written a highly critical open letter to Evo Morales and Alvaro García.  From Narco News:

Did the people send you to impose such a brutal, irrational, arrogant and neoliberal “gasolinazo” (an 82 percent hike in gasoline prices) that will make the people, who barely survive if they have the luck to have a stall in the market or a job, even poorer?

You always said that neoliberalism has failed. Is the gasolinazo a revolutionary and popular measure? Or is it that your economic model has failed?

Evo Morales decreed a 20% wage hike in the areas of health, education, police, and the armed forces (of course!) as a cushion.  But still, at least some Bolivians are getting nervous, and lines at banks are getting longer.  However, the wage hikes go into effect in 2011, i.e. a few days, so will that calm things?

My previous post on the topic (with the government's rationale) here.  Boz speculates on how Evo Morales might well get through it based on past experience.

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States and immigration

The National Immigration Forum just published a report on the potential copying of Arizona's SB 1070.  It is aimed at state legislators who are contemplating such a law, with detailed discussion of several states.  It is hard to argue with the following conclusion:

Thus, Republicans are presented with a choice: Will they use their newfound political clout to pursue harsh immigration enforcement legislation that is prohibitively expensive, endangers public safety, will result in costly lawsuits, undermines local economies, and turns off a key and growing voting demographic? Or, will they use their new power to lead states to practical solutions, court a powerful new Latino and immigrant electorate and pave a way for their party to make even more gains in 2012?

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Latin America and Palestinians

Ecuador and Bolivia have joined the swelling ranks of Latin American government that are recognizing the Palestinian state (here is my previous post on the topic).  Brazil is already at work constructing a Palestinian embassy. Latin American support will not be decisive, but this will give the Palestinians a bit more diplomatic momentum as they seek to a) halt Israeli settlements; and b) get UN recognition of a state.

Meanwhile, the Israeli response really continues to boggle the mind for how consciously insulting and demeaning it is.  From the Deputy Foreign Minister:

"Facebook is the 'like' state, and so is the Palestinian state recognized in Brasilia and Buenos Aires," said Ayalon. "Irresponsible governments are quick to 'like' the Palestinian state without actually checking out its profile: an authority without sovereignty, with no borders or territorial continuity, no economic ability or democratic culture."

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Judging Obama policy

Andres Oppenheimer writes about President Obama's promises to Hispanics and to Latin America.  With regard to Latin America, his analysis is generally solid but I disagree on two points: one, the Obama administration did not "stand up for democracy" in Honduras; and two, Latin America is not waiting with bated breath for more FTAs.

But I agree completely with his assessment about immigration policy, as I have been making the same point over and over:

He may be right in thinking that Hispanics will not migrate to the Republican Party, which over the past two years has increasingly come across as the party of Hispanic-allergic, anti-immigration zealots. But Obama may be forgetting that Latino voters may do something just as harmful to his re-election chances in 2012 – stay at home.

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Snow

We had the first white Christmas in Charlotte since 1947, and it continued to snow yesterday.  Though it will be gone soon it has been fun.

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Gasolinazo

The Bolivian government drastically increased taxes on fuel, by over 70%.  It did so for rational capitalist reasons, namely that higher prices in neighboring countries had fostered a thriving black market.  However, the official reasoning leaves something to be desired:

"We can no longer subsidize either smugglers or the powerful who have five or six cars.  What we want to do is to use the money for fuel subsidy for the benefit of the Bolivians, for the neediest," he argued.

It is hard to justify a regressive tax by explaining how it will help the poor.  Bolivians themselves know a regressive tax when they see one, and are protesting the "gasolinazo."

It is good that the Bolivian government recognizes the negative consequences of a well-intentioned law and does not simply stick to it.  Nonetheless, without some sort of cushion the tax hike will hurt the poor the hardest, and Evo Morales will take a political hit (though he was conveniently in Venezuela at the time of the announcement).  The "powerful who have five or six cars" will still do just fine.

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The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

My holiday book pick has to be Stieg Larsson's The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo.  Yes, I am late to this fictional fad, but I loved it.  An old man in Sweden wants to find out what happened to his brother's granddaughter, who disappeared in 1966, which has haunted him ever since.  He hires a financial reporter who edits a magazine and who has recently been prosecuted for libel (that fact also becomes central to the story).  Soon he is joined by a unique young woman (with a dragon tattoo on her shoulder) with a talent for computers.

I was absolutely sucked into this novel, and remained so when the story become even darker than I had realized it would be.  This is not a story for the faint hearted.  But it is an intricate, fast paced narrative that not only comes to a satisfying conclusion but also leaves some threads open for its sequels.

P.S. Here is a question that only people who have read the book will understand.  Do they really drink that much coffee in Sweden?

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Chewing gum has nutritional value

Why don't U.S.-imposed sanctions work?  In part, because we don't respect our own sanctions.  This New York Times article is hilarious for the hypocrisy it reveals about U.S. trade with Cuba and other "state sponsors of terrorism."  Click here for more details on all the companies and products that U.S. companies are selling under the category of humanitarian exemption.

This is the best quote:

Take, for instance, chewing gum, sold in a number of blacklisted countries by Mars Inc., which owns Wrigley’s. “We debated that one for a month. Was it food? Did it have nutritional value? We concluded it did,"

Willy Wonka would be proud!  A skim through the products shows we sold essential items like croutons, NutraSweet, mircrowave popcorn, weight-lifting supplements, hot sauce, Coca Cola, Pepsi, weight loss supplements, mayonnaise, cigarettes, and food coloring.

Also hypocritical is the fact that Fidel Castro rails on the evils of capitalism, yet seems to be perfectly content with the massive business presence of Bank of America, Citigroup, Bank of New York, JP Morgan Chase, etc. that finance all of these transactions.  Viva la revolución!

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China and Latin America

R. Evan Ellis, a professor at CHDS, just published a level-headed and interesting article on Chinese soft power in Latin America in Joint Forces Quarterly (he also published a book on China in Latin America).*  The intriguing part is how Latin American countries and China court each other.  China is careful not to antagonize the United States, but lets Latin American governments view it as a development model, a market, a source of investment, and/or as an anti-imperialist ally.  China can be anything you want, and so its influence has grown.

Yet Ellis also addresses what is always missing from more shrill op-eds on the topic, namely that there are limits to Chinese soft power.  Unlike the United States, China is viewed as an outsider, with a completely different culture; few people speak Chinese; there is little expertise in China on Latin America, and they are seen as poor corporate citizens, which is really saying something because labor conditions in Latin America were never great.

This means China is not a threat, but obviously the regional context is changing:

For analysts focused on the "rise" of China in Latin America and elsewhere, the issue is not whether China is a threat, or whether it has the right to pursue its national interests in Latin America and other parts of the world. Rather, it is important to recognize the dynamics that this reemergence creates in a region with close human, geographical, and economic ties to the United States, and to prepare to mitigate the risks, meet the challenges, and rise to the opportunities that China's entry into Latin America makes possible.

* It is worth noting that after many years of reading DoD-funded journals, I often find them more level-headed than others.

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Obama and Latin America

Jaime Daremblum at the Hudson Institute lays out a conservative agenda for U.S. policy toward Latin America.  It is deeply flawed for two reasons.  First:

Nearly two years have passed since his inauguration, and President Barack Obama has yet to unveil a major policy initiative for Latin America. Regional officials are hoping Obama ends this neglect in 2011 and increases U.S. engagement.

Some flowery policy initiative is most certainly not necessary, and the "Regional officials" are conspicuously left unnamed.  It has really struck me how so many people seem to think that big announcements are the only way to engage.


Second, the overall thrust of the proposals are copies of the 1980s.  In short, be more aggressive and attack perceived enemies as much as possible, without any thought to the potential consequences.  He even wants a new Kissinger Commission, which in the 1980s justified U.S. military intervention.  We definitely do not want to copy anything Henry Kissinger did, and in any case the Council on Foreign Relations already wrote a report that, if imperfect, would do the job.

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Latinos and the South

The Census is already confirming what we know about Latinos and the South.  The mention of Charlotte, of course, is no coincidence!

The U.S. Hispanic minority is rapidly expanding across the country from its traditional base around the Mexican border region and will nearly triple to about 130 million by mid-century, census data shows.

"For a long time Latinos were a fact of life in the American Southwest, and that was it," said John Weeks, a professor of geography and director of the International Population Center at San Diego State University.

"But over the last 20 years, there has been just a mushrooming of migrants into places like Charlotte (North Carolina), originally brought there to do construction."

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Cubapedia

For some entertainment, I recommend EcuRed, the Cuban government's alternative to Wikipedia.

There is, for example, an entire article on what a great athlete Fidel Castro is.  And on how the Soviet Union pushed humanity closer to more just forms of social organization.  And you don't scare me, you nasty OAS!

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DREAM Act and Republicans

Senate supporters for the DREAM Act could not get the necessary 60 votes to invoke cloture, so once again it has to wait.

Matt Barreto (and anyone interested in Latino politics should look at the Latino Decisions blog) argues that immigration is so important to Latinos that this will definitely hurt Republicans who voted no, given 1) the fact that they need Latino votes to win elections; and 2) that immigration--and the DREAM Act in particular--is extremely important to Latino voters:

While much of the last two years was spent addressing the issues of health care reform, and the economy, to Latino voters a third issue loomed as being equally important for the President and Congress to address – immigration reform.

I am not entirely convinced.  An October Pew Hispanic poll (which I discussed here) had Latino registered voters ranking immigration as only the fifth most important issue for the 2010 congressional elections.

I would also argue that an entirely likely scenario is that Latino voters will stay home rather than punish Republicans.  After all, plenty of Democrats are also voting against immigration reform, and the Obama administration is showing itself as incapable of doing much beyond enforcement.

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Ley Habilitante

Hugo Chávez got the Enabling Law he wanted, which allows broad decree power for 18 months, and thereby reduced horizontal accountability in Venezuela even further.  He even claims that initially he only wanted 12 months, but the people affected by the floods wanted more.  Of course, this law is only intended to help those affected by the rain, and so are limited to...well, actually there is basically no limit.  Here are the nine areas where Chávez will have the power to ignore the new legislature.  Altogether they comprise everything, the world we live in, and life in general:

*Atención a las necesidades vitales que se han generado por las lluvias: Modos de proceder de entes públicos y privados ante desastres naturales, con la participación de las organizaciones populares.

*Infraestructura, transporte y servicios públicos: Dictar o reformar normas que regulen la actuación de entes públicos y privados en la construcción y optimización de obras de infraestructura. Igualmente, legislar en torno al sector de telecomunicaciones.

*Vivienda y hábitat: Construcción de viviendas en general y acceso de las familias a mecanismos que faciliten adquisición, ampliación y remodelación.

*Ordenación territorial, desarrollo integral y uso de la tierra urbana y rural: Diseñar una nueva regionalización geográfica del país, con la finalidad de reducir los altos niveles de concentración demográfica en algunas zonas del territorio nacional. Dictar o reformar normas para regular la creación de nuevas comunidades y la conformación de comunas, atendiendo la realidad de cada espacio, especialmente en los territorios habitados por pueblos indígenas.

*Financiero y tributario: Creación de fuentes y fondos especiales, a fin de atender la contingencia por las lluvias. Modernizar el marco regulatorio de los sectores tributario, impositivo, monetario y crediticio del mercado de valores, de la banca y los seguros.

*Seguridad ciudadana y jurídica: Habla de los sistemas de seguridad ciudadana, policial y de protección civil, además de los procedimientos relativos a identificación y control migratorio.

*Seguridad y defensa integral de la Nación: Normas relativas a la Fuerza Armada Nacional Bolivariana (FANB) y al sistema de protección civil; disciplina y carrera militar y atención integral a las fronteras.

*Cooperación internacional: Competencias del Ejecutivo Nacional para la celebración de contratos de interés público de carácter bilateral o multilateral, destinados a desarrollar sectores estratégicos y a atender las consecuencias de desastres naturales.

*Sistema socieconómico: Todo lo relativo al título VI de la Constitución (sistema socioeconómico, fiscal, monetario y presupuestario). Menciona el interés por erradicar desigualdades que se derivan de la especulación, usura, acumulación de capital, monopolios, oligopolios y latifundios.

Even Al Jazeera is skeptical, and sums up the situation well:

With Chavez able to make laws without opposition approval, opposition plans to put a check on the president's powers now lie in tatters.

The move comes as polls show support for the former paratrooper slipping, and critics have expressed fears that he could use the new powers to marginalise opposition parties ahead of the election.

Lucia Newman, Al Jazeera's Latin America editor, said that the timing of the decision was telling.

"The justification for being able to rule by decree is that it will allow the president to quickly pass new laws to deal with the emergency that the country is facing because of weeks of floods," she said. "But clearly the timing here is very suspect. In three weeks he will no longer have a two-thirds majority, and now he will be able to pass by decree laws dealing with just about everything."

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The politics of FTAs

There is an editorial in The Wall Street Journal about the ATPDEA, which then leads to what is really the main argument about Colombia:

Of course none of this would be happening if the Colombian free trade agreement had been ratified in 2008. But Democrats have been instructed by their union supporters that FTAs are off limits.

If this argument were valid, then it would mean no FTAs could be advanced under the Obama administration.  Oh wait, it already did push for one, and some unions supported it!  It is true that union leaders in the U.S. are not particularly happy that their Colombian counterparts so often end up dead, but bashing unions is a simplistic and sometimes fact-free enterprise.  So, oddly enough, the unions are blamed for the fact that three Republican senators are intentionally holding up the ATPDEA.

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Wikileaks and authoritarianism

There is quite a lot about the response to Wikileaks that annoys me.  One example is when the most closed governments are the ones applauding it the most.  This struck me as I read Fidel Castro criticizing the U.S. government reaction to the leaks.  I think a debate in the U.S. about what constitutes espionage (or even what should be classified) and what to do about it would be beneficial.  However, it is hypocritical for dictatorships to make such criticisms.

You tell me how Raúl Castro would respond if a member of the Cuban army leaked classified documents and then handed them off to a foreigner.

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Latin America and commodities

Much has been made of the UN's (or, more precisely, ECLAC's) prediction that Latin American economies will grow next year by 6 percent.  But tucked toward the end of the press release is this little nugget:

According to Alicia Bárcena "The region's main challenge is to rebuild its capacity to implement countercyclical actions and to create the conditions for productive development not based solely on the export of commodities".

I find myself coming back to this quite a bit recently.  These economic numbers are great, but when "based solely on the export of commodities" they should point toward desperate need for diversification rather than self-congratulation.

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Presidents and parties

This post at Tim's El Salvador blog about Mauricio Funes' popularity and the parties' lack of popularity looked so much like Chile.  The two countries obviously are different in many ways, but in both a situation is developing where presidents can enjoy quite high approval ratings while long-standing political parties are well below 50 percent approval.  In both countries many people (in Chile a majority, in El Salvador almost a majority) do not identify with any party at all.

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Wikileaks Chile

With virtually all of the cables on Latin America, we learn relatively little but get a fairly discouraging confirmation of what we already know.  In this 2007 cable from then Ambassador Craig Kelly in Santiago (the specific Chile connection was his suggestion to push Chile into being the anti-Chávez model for the region), he argues that the U.S. can work to isolate Hugo Chávez by emphasizing the great things the U.S. does, having U.S. officials meet with marginalized groups, and advocating for free trade.  There's nothing shady or nefarious; instead, the overall effect is one of cluelessness.

The specific recommendations:

A more muscular USG presence in the region that builds on high-level visits, underscores the strengths of viable, successful alternatives (i.e., Brazil and Chile) to Chavez's brand of socialism, targets enhanced resources to regions and populations beyond the elites, and which uses public diplomacy to make our message loud and clear - democracy, freer trade and investment, work and that along with that come active and effective programs to address social ills and the needs of the region's youthful population. Enough said.

This is the type of argument that the Bush administration made many times--we just need to improve our message and let markets work, then people will automatically like us.  Even the mentions of anti-poverty programs seem aimed primarily at promoting the message.  It is just vague and empty, with the unfounded notion that we can so easily drive public opinion.  I always think of the article by William LeoGrande on the Bush administration's policy toward Latin America, entitled "A Poverty of Imagination."  To quote Kelly, "Enough said."

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Santiago Roncagliolo's Red April

Santiago Roncagliolo's Red April: A Novel is a creepy yet engrossing mystery set in Peru in March-April 2000.  It focuses on the fight against Sendero Luminoso in Ayacucho.

Félix Chacaltana Saldívar is a prosecutor put in charge of investigating a particularly grisly murder he thinks should be attributed to Sendero, and he starts to unravel a series of killings for which he ultimately starts to feel responsible, because all the people he talks to end up dead.  Chacaltana himself is really odd, a combination of Norman Bates and Inspector Clouseau, fastidious but often clueless and with skeletons in his own closet.

The narrative takes place just before and during Holy Week, obviously a time of death and resurrection (and there are interesting points made about the intersection of Catholicism and indigenous beliefs).  Within that, Sendero and the military's fight against it engulfed everyone in death, even while the presence of violence is denied:

"You think too much Chacaltana.  Get one thing into your head: in this country there is no terrorism, by orders from the top.  Is that clear?

Everyone is focused on trying to make sure that as few people as possible know that any violence is occurring at all, or that Sendero still exists.  That gets more difficult--though not impossible--as the number of dead increases.  From the perspective of plot, the book keeps you guessing until the end.

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Playing with immigration numbers

Although I share his indignation, I disagree with Mike Munger's conclusion here and my indignation is a bit different.  The story is that ICE officials used very dubious means (just read the Washington Post article, which is depressing) to reach "record" numbers of deportations.*

But each successive revelation about how ICE "broke" the record is more preposterous and outrageous. Have we completely lost respect for the basic rule of law? And then to have these bureaucrats just LIE....Wow. I mean, the guy who outed the administration's fibs is the head of their own union. The admin lied about changing the rules, and artificially decreed that the year would be longer, on both ends. Good lord.

WaPo is hardly some right wing blogger. There actually appears to be something moving, where fair-minded people on the left are sick and tired of the Obama shenanigans.

But here is the point I think Mike misses.  Even without the fake counting, the Obama administration is deporting people in truly massive numbers, with a commitment that exceeds the Bush administration even if a "record" is not achieved, which in any case was very close.  The tinkering is therefore at the margins.  That deportation commitment--which is very expensive but very easy to get funding for--greatly exceeds its own professed commitment to immigration reform.

In other words, I think it is fair to say that many people, myself included, are tired not so much of shenanigans, but of policy.


* Obsession with records is a pet peeve of mine.  I've written before about how how pervasive that has been in drug interdictions.  Trying to reach artificial record numbers also helped create the false positives scandal in Colombia.

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Latin America links to look at

I try to remember and do this every so often, as my blog roll had major problems and ultimately seemed rather long and unwieldy anyway.

--Pablo at The Cross Culturalist on the Republican DREAM Act defectors

--Aguachile on the latest poll for Mexico 2012

--Americas Quarterly on the poor (read, U.S.) Chilean diet

--Boz on Latinobarómetro and the relevance of crime

--Francisco Toro at Caracas Chronicles on potential crackdown on the internet in Venezuela

--Mike Allison has a series of posts on El Salvador Wikileaks

--RNS at Honduras Culture and Politics on militarization in Honduras

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Disappeared in Colombia

Vanessa Kritzer at the Latin America Working Group called my attention to their new report, Breaking the Silence: In Search of Colombia's Disappeared.

As of November 2010, Colombia’s official government statistics list over 51,000 disappearances, a figure that includes missing persons who may be alive, while the Attorney General’s office speaks of over 32,000 “forced disappearances.” More than 1130 new cases of forced disappearance have been officially registered in the last three years. However, the full total remains unknown. Many cases have yet to be entered in the database, and many disappearances are not registered at all. Earlier claims by associations of families of the disappeared of some 15,000 forced disappearances, far from being an overestimation, now look to have vastly undercounted the tragedy’s enormous scope.

It is entirely positive that the government is taking the issue seriously, though obviously sobering that doing so actually reveals the problems to be even worse than previously believed.  Even knowing how violent Colombian has been, those numbers are staggering--similar to Argentina's Dirty War.

As the report notes, one of the key problems now is that it is extremely difficult to prosecute anyone, and many family members are stigmatized as FARC sympathizers.  Plus, many cases end up in military courts.

The report concludes with specific recommendations for both the Colombian and U.S. governments, and is well worth a look.

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DREAMing in the House

So the DREAM Act passed the House (216-198), but as everyone notes, it is hard to see how it could pass the Senate.  Senate Republicans have already indicated they won't allow it to come to a vote.

Since the DREAM Act is one of the least controversial elements of immigration reform, the response (and resistance in the Senate) emphasizes two points.

First, the Obama administration's dramatic increase in enforcement measures will not translate into votes for immigration reform.

Second, the status quo is becoming more and more attractive to many people, which makes mustering votes for reform even more difficult.  For example:

Many of the House Republicans who condemned the bill most forcefully Wednesday referred to the act as a nightmare, not a dream, and argued it would unfairly harm U.S. citizens who would face more competition from newly legalized immigrants in college admissions, federal loans, work-study programs and the workforce.

In other words, it is preferable to keep people in the illegal economy without higher education, where they can continue to provide the rest of us with cash-based services for low wages.  To be fair, these arguments are coming from members of the House who would never vote for reform anyway, but I can see this type of logic appealing to others.

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Presidential approval in Chile

I've written before about presidential approval in Chile, and UDI Senator Pablo Longueira is also trying to figure it out.  He criticizes the way in which Sebastián Piñera has handled his image.

“Porque la forma en que trabaja el gobierno es en torno a una figura personal, individual, no ha habido ningún cambio por hacer algo más institucional que finalmente haga que esto tenga una estabilidad en el tiempo”, indicó Longueira.

The problem with this argument is that there is an increasingly strong incentive for presidents not to identify with institutions, by which he means party coalitions.  The two main coalitions in Chile are extremely unpopular, whereas presidents have achieved high levels of personal approval even in times of economic downturn.  Piñera has every incentive to 1) emphasize his individual achievements; and 2) blame institutions for any failures.

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Latin America and a Palestinian state

Argentina has joined Brazil and Uruguay in recognizing a Palestinian state (and thanks to J.F. String in comments to a recent post for noting that Uruguay had preceded Brazil).  The Israeli response is striking, particularly because it unwittingly shows in part why Latin American countries are doing so in the first place.

"Such a declaration today only harms the peace process, because it merely encourages the Palestinians to keep digging in and hoping the miracle will somehow descend from the heavens or from the international community, that will impose some kind of accord on Israel," Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon said.

"And what is important is that the Americans don't accept this either," he told Israel's Army Radio.

First, I think it is fair to say that these Latin American governments do precisely want to be part of an accord forged by the international community, but obviously they do not consider that harmful to the peace process.

Second, emphasizing what the U.S. wants will virtually always have the opposite effect of that desired.  If anything, berating Latin America in that regard will encourage more countries to follow suit.  And anyway, Brazil's position is intended to be a counterpoint to the U.S.

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Latin America and debt

The Wall Street Journal takes a look at economic problems in Europe and examines how Latin America provides lessons, particularly in terms of restructuring debt.  Two thoughts:

First, the article dances around but does not focus on the fact that it is helpful if you sell commodities that China, India, and other major countries are currently paying a premium for.  If you don't, the recovery may will be more difficult.

Second, it is interesting to see how Argentina's default and then Néstor Kirchner's debt strategy in 2005 are getting some respect, whereas at the time both received quite a lot of criticism.  But now:

Argentina's debt load shrank by one-third after the default, and it shifted into high growth. Part of the reason for that is the surge in demand for Argentine wheat, meat and other commodities, thanks to China. But partly, it's because the economy's growth wasn't stalled by overly burdensome debt payments.

"Aggressive debt defaults mean you'll be classified as a rogue debtor, you'll be excluded from capital markets—but there's the possibility you might solve your problems more quickly," says Mr. Powell.

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