Tuesday, June 01, 2010

Piñera numbers

New Adimark numbers for Sebastián Piñera have him holding pretty steady with a slight uptick.  His approval is at 53 percent, up two points, while disapproval is at 30 percent, down one point.  Approval of the government as a whole is at 55 percent, up four points.

One thing I found intriguing is the high level of support he receives from the 18-24 year old cohort, in which 64 percent approve of him.  Conventional wisdom has that cohort either voting null or becoming independent.  Perhaps after twenty years of the Concertación, young people simply like the idea of something new.  Let's see if it holds, since Piñera's policies have not yet diverged significantly from the Concertación's.

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Monday, May 31, 2010

Colombian election

Antanas Mockus received far fewer votes than expected yesterday (21.5 percent to Juan Manuel Santos' 46.6 percent) though perhaps just about the percentage we would have expected six weeks ago.  Santos is looking to scoop up the votes necessary to get over 50 percent (and to retain the ones he has) while Santistas in the legislature are telling Mockus to conceded to avoid the cost of a second round.

Matthew Shugart notes that Mockus' chances "dimmed dramatically," but I wonder precisely how dramatically?  Put differently, what is the highest percentage differential that a candidate has overcome from a first round?  The difference here is 25.1 percent, which is higher even than what Mockus received, and so it seems inconceivable that Santos would lose in a second round.

Boz and Steven Taylor also have quick rundowns, while Colombia Reports notes how the traditional parties lost out yet again.

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Sunday, May 30, 2010

Rafael Correa interview

La Nación published an interview with Rafael Correa that is worth checking out.  Among other things, he likes Sebastián Piñera, discusses the differences between himself and Hugo Chávez, and actually says he wishes that Latin Americans would learn from Anglo-Saxon culture and stop lying all time: "In Latin America, everyone lies and no is surprised."  Interesting stuff.

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Timothy Henderson's A Glorious Defeat

Timothy Henderson's A Glorious Defeat: Mexico and its War with the United States (2007) is a thoroughly enjoyable account of the events leading up to, and through, the 1846-1848 war.  It is written for a general audience, and he does a great job of explaining complex situations in a really engaging manner.

The complexity lies in bringing together the different strands of Mexican political turmoil (and the ever-present Antonio López de Santa Anna), the politics of Texas, and the politics of the United States.  The U.S. was moving westward and believed Mexico both incapable and not chosen by God to have what became the western United States.  Texas was looking for autonomy from Mexico, became independent, and then annexed to the U.S.  Mexicans watched in disgust, but were too crippled by corruption, factions, and a ragged conscript army to resist.  Finally, the U.S. fabricated a provocation in order to declare war.

I found the analysis of Mexican politics to be very compelling, as it acknowledges how Mexican politicians failed to create the sort of political institutions that would keep the country together, even as they faced Americans who disdained them and had no compunction about lying and stealing land.  The most fascinating individual has to be Santa Anna:

Politics, for Santa Anna, seems to have been primarily the art of finding the right despot, and for him that search usually ended satisfactorily only with himself (p. 80).

He would rule, be exiled, and yet time and time again, Mexican political elites called him back.  Along those lines, my favorite passage from the book may be the following:

Moderate politician José Fernando Ramírez, who was normally of a very skeptical turn of mind, wrote to a friend, "There is no doubt whatsoever that [Santa Anna] is returning as a real democrat, and I can conceive of his being one."  Ramírez, perhaps realizing how absurd that sounded, added laconically, "I cannot tell you on what I base my conviction." (pp. 159-160).

Santa Anna left in disgrace after Chapultepec Castle was taken and U.S. troops marched into Mexico City (though he would return yet again later!).  For anyone who has not been to Chapultepec Park, there is a massive monument to six teenage cadets who died rather than surrender.  Here is a photo I took of it when I was in Mexico City last month:


Mexico finally agreed to terms, in large part because the vacuum caused by the war led to indigenous uprisings, including 200,000 dead in the Yucatán Peninsula in 1848 alone.  Many elites wanted to bring in European monarchy to rule, though they would not be successful in that endeavor for more than a decade.

Indeed, one critical conclusion that tends to get less attention is the following:

The territorial transfer unleashed toxic political passions that a little over a decade later would plunge both the United States and Mexico into bloody civil wars.  The U.S.-Mexican War exacerbated the imbalance of power and wealth that had, in large measure, caused it in the first place, and that imbalance has yet to be corrected (pp. 179-180).

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Saturday, May 29, 2010

IMF wants some love

IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn gave a speech in Lima, and tries to get some IMF credit for keeping up social spending in Latin America during the recession.

But during this recession, many countries preserved basic social spending and social safety nets. “This is something the IMF pushed for in country programs. I think it was incredibly important. Not only did it protect the most vulnerable from the ravages of the crisis, but it also contributed to social and political stability,” Strauss-Kahn said. 

Today's IMF is not the IMF of the 1980s and 1990s, when social spending was seen almost as anathema, but this is still a bit hard to swallow.  It makes it sound like governments preferred to cut spending, but were finally convinced by the IMF to do the right thing.

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Friday, May 28, 2010

Obama and Honduras

Jeremy Kryt has an article on Honduran politics at Huffington Post, which provides a very good rundown on the continued push for constitutional reform and on human rights abuses.  The only problem is an interview with Mark Weisbrot, who seems to have fallen off the deep end, arguing that Barack Obama's Central America policy is just like Ronald Reagan's because he supports death squads.  This is akin to Newt Gingrich saying that Obama represents a threat similar to Hitler.  Both comparisons are not only inaccurate and ignorant of history, but they also trivialize the extremes of 1930s-1940s Germany and 1980s Central America.

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2010 National Security Strategy and Latin America

The 2010 National Security Strategy just came out.  It covers a lot of ground, but in general it moves the U.S. away from unilateralism and toward engagement and international institutions.  Here is a general taste with mention of the Americas:

We are working to build deeper and more effective partnerships with other key centers of influence—including China, India, and Russia, as well as increasingly influential nations such as Brazil, South Africa, and Indonesia—so that we can cooperate on issues of bilateral and global concern, with the recognition that power, in an interconnected world, is no longer a zero sum game. We are expanding our outreach to emerging nations, particularly those that can be models of regional success and stability, from the Americas to Africa to Southeast Asia. And we will pursue engagement with hostile nations to test their intentions, give their governments the opportunity to change course, reach out to their people, and mobilize international coalitions.

This is very different from President Bush's 2006 National Security Strategy, which clearly singled out Fidel Castro without naming him (but who else is a "tyrant" from a "different era" in Latin America?) and Hugo Chávez (reference to populism).  The Bush strategy had a lot more about what the U.S. rejects and refuses.  Peter Feaver notes how those references were dropped, disapproving of having no mention of Venezuela.  But since U.S.-Latin American relations deteriorated sharply during the Bush administration, it is all to the good that the strategy shifts.

Mexico, of course, gets special mention, nothing too new or surprising:

The strategic partnerships and unique relationships we maintain with Canada and Mexico are critical to U.S. national security and have a direct effect on the security of our homeland. With billions of dollars in trade, shared critical infrastructure, and millions of our citizens moving across our common borders, no two countries are more directly connected to our daily lives. We must change the way we think about our shared borders, in order to secure and expedite the lawful and legitimate flow of people and goods while interdicting transnational threat that threaten our open societies.

...

With Mexico, in addition to trade cooperation, we are working together to identify and interdict threats at the earliest opportunity, even before they reach North America. Stability and security in Mexico are indispensable to building a strong economic partnership, fighting the illicit drug and arms trade, and promoting sound immigration policy.

Brazil then also gets more props:

In the Americas, we are bound by proximity, integrated markets, energy interdependence, a broadly shared commitment to democracy, and the rule of law. Our deep historical, familial, and cultural ties make our alliances and partnerships critical to U.S. interests. We will work in equal partnership to advance economic and social inclusion, safeguard citizen safety and security, promote clean energy, and defend universal values of the people of the hemisphere.

We welcome Brazil’s leadership and seek to move beyond dated North-South divisions to pursue progress on bilateral, hemispheric, and global issues. Brazil’s macroeconomic success, coupled with its steps to narrow socioeconomic gaps, provide important lessons for countries throughout the Americas and Africa. We will encourage Brazilian efforts against illicit transnational networks. As guardian of a unique national  environmental patrimony and a leader in renewable fuels, Brazil is an important partner in confronting global climate change and promoting energy security. And in the context of the G-20 and the Doha round, we will work with Brazil to ensure that economic development and prosperity is broadly shared.

Interestingly, President Bush's National Security Strategy (from 2006) mentions Brazil only once, and in passing.  I think that is an important shift.  Regardless of the controversy surrounding Brazil's efforts to engage with Iran, the Obama administration is making public efforts to recognize Brazil's growing global importance.  Plus, the use of the word "dated" is another dig at the Bush administration's Cold War-type approach to Cuba and Venezuela.

It also mentions immigration reform, which the Bush Strategy had also mentioned only in passing:

The United States is a nation of immigrants. Our ability to innovate, our ties to the world, and our economic prosperity depend on our nation’s capacity to welcome and assimilate immigrants, and a visa system which welcomes skilled professionals from around the world. At the same time, effective border security and immigration enforcement must keep the country safe and deter unlawful entry. Indeed, persistent problems in immigration policy consume valuable resources needed to advance other security objectives and make it harder to focus on the most dangerous threats facing our country. Ultimately, our national security depends on striking a balance between security and openness. To advance this goal, we must pursue comprehensive immigration reform that effectively secures our borders, while repairing a broken system that fails to serve the needs of our nation.

Ironically, the administration is currently actively engaged in the "consume valuable resources needed to advance other security objectives."  At the same time, it is good to point out how lack of reform has a negative impact on security.

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Thursday, May 27, 2010

Iran and Lula

Thomas Friedman gets medieval on Lula for talking to Ahmadinejad.  There are good arguments to be made about how to deal with Iran, but unfortunately he doesn't try to make any.  I would please also ask that Friedman not write anything further on Latin America because his oversimplifications (Venezuela=evil; Colombia=good) just perpetuate stereotypes.

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Wednesday, May 26, 2010

NAFTA nutshell

What does this say about free trade agreements?  I happened to receive a book about NAFTA from an "in a nutshell" series of books.  The back of the book says it is "a succinct exposition of the law" in "a compact format for convenient reference."

But it is 533 pages!

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Doing "something" on immigration

The Obama administration is sending 1,200 National Guard troops to the U.S.-Mexico border, and promising $500 million for border enforcement.  The AP reporter sums it up pretty well:

President Barack Obama's plan to send as many as 1,200 National Guard troops to the US-Mexico border appears to be a scaled-down version of the border security approach championed by his predecessor.

Same as with President Bush, the idea is to be seen as "doing something."  The hope is that "doing something" will create some momentum for immigration reform by "securing" the border first.  Already, the Obama administration is deporting more people a year than Bush.

But that will not happen, because the goalposts will consistently move.  Already, John McCain has said he wants far more troops.  Since it is not actually possible to "secure" the border, there will always be calls to spend more on enforcement.

Meanwhile, the Mexican government issued an official statement in response, arguing that the troops should be used to stop the weapons and cash going into Mexico rather than immigrants coming out of it.

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Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Get in line forever

From ImmigrationProf Blog:

The number of cases awaiting resolution before the Immigration Courts reached a new all time high of 242,776 matters at the end of March 2010, according to an analysis of very timely court data by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC). The case backlog has continued to grow -- up 6.3 percent -- since TRAC's last report four months ago, and is nearly a third higher (30.4%) than it was a mere 18 months ago. The average length of time cases have been waiting increased to 443 days.

These numbers are really staggering.  I've written many times about how the "get in line" argument is disingenuous because the line stretches from here to the moon.

But this data also highlights something that does not get much attention in the immigration reform debate.  If the government enacts some sort of amnesty policy, who will administer it?  There will need to be a massive injection of funds to increase the number of judges or other qualified officials because the system is already totally overwhelmed.

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Monday, May 24, 2010

More on SB 1070

Patrick Corcoran (who blogs on Mexican politics at Gancho) has a good summary and rebuttal of SB 1070.

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Chuck Norris on immigration

I thought this must be a joke at first, but it appears to be serious--Chuck Norris analyzes immigration and asks what the founders of the U.S. would do.  Best quote: "If we can protect our borders in the Middle East, we certainly can here as well."  If Chuck says our borders extend to the Middle East, then they do.

Update:  A commenter pointed out that he wrote "protect borders" rather than "protect our borders."  I am not still not sure what his point is, but at least he isn't arguing that the U.S. is sovereign in the Middle East.

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Sunday, May 23, 2010

Immigration and glass houses

There is a popular argument that roughly goes like this: Mexico mistreats immigrants, so its president should not lecture us even if Arizona mistreat immigrants.  Felipe Calderón was also asked about it.

Andres Oppenheimer has a good column looking at how although Mexico has (as anyone who studies immigration knows) human right problems with regard to Central American immigrants, its laws are not like Arizona's.  But I particularly agree with this:

Mexico's mistreatment of Central American migrants should be no excuse for laws like Arizona's. And the Arizona law's abuses should be no excuse for Mexico's failure to crack down on its police forces for human rights abuses against undocumented immigrants. Both are wrong, and both should be denounced.

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Saturday, May 22, 2010

Old Chilean Wine in New Bottle?

Sebastián Piñera gave his first state of the address yesterday--text here.  Robert Funk live-blogged and concluded that he sounded pretty Concertaciónish, and that this was not the UDI right, but a 1950s right that believes the state has a legitimate and even important role to play in economic development.  It would be interesting to compare speeches by Jorge Alessandri. 

Along similar lines, Socialist Diputado Marcelo Díaz commented that "Many are things that have been suggested many times before and are now being put forward by a government of a different stripe. I hope that when we see the small print we aren’t disappointed.”  I wonder if members of UDI are thinking the same thing.

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Friday, May 21, 2010

Responses to Calderón

In his address to the U.S. Congress, Felipe Calderón struck a major nerve by urging Congress to renew the assault weapons ban and criticizing Arizona's immigration law.  Conservatives are not happy, as he was seen as "lecturing" and "pandering," it was "inappropriate," "a lot of nerve and whining," his argument is "a lie," Mexico "holds American sovereignty in contempt" and those who applauded him in Congress are communists.  Being lectured, and by a Mexican no less, does not go down well in all quarters.

Calderón's comments represent more of what Marc Rosenblum called "moving beyond the policy of no policy."  Immigration is a transnational policy area, and since 9/11 (which also roughly coincided with the PRI's loss of the presidency) the Mexican government believes it can have a voice in the policy process.  At the same time it is keenly aware of how that can lead to backlash.  The Arizona law likely put it over the top, and Calderón figured he could not make a speech without mentioning it.  And if he's going to rile people up anyway, he may as well put in the weapons ban.

His comments may well mean little, because immigration reform is not likely to get a vote this year anyway.  By next year, no one will remember.

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Thursday, May 20, 2010

Chávez about to fall, for the millionth time

The Economist has a story on Venezuela, with a solid recap of recent events.  After years and years, though, I am tired of the "Chávez is really hurting now, and soon his government will fall" meme.  Way back in 2001, Kurt Weyland asked if Chávez was "losing his luster," using essentially the same argument as The Economist nine years later.  It is similar to the decades of predictions about the imminent collapse of the Castro government in Cuba.  Or the imminent death of Fidel Castro, though at least that one will eventually come true.

So, feel free to continue predicting.  At the very least, though, these predictions should explain what has changed significantly enough to make it happen in 2010 when it hasn't happened before (not counting the coup, anyway).

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The immigration reform message

See here for the text of remarks by Presidents Obama and Calderón yesterday.  Obama has boiled the message down to this: I can get the Democratic votes, but I can't get to 60 in the Senate without a few Republicans.  Therefore, if the federal government fails to pass reform, it is entirely the fault of the Republican Party.

Here’s the challenge that we have politically.  The political challenge is, is that I have confidence that I can get the majority of Democrats, both in the House and the Senate, to support a piece of legislation of the sort that I just described. But I don’t have 60 votes in the Senate.  I’ve got to have some support from Republicans.  When we made an effort of this sort a few years ago, it was under the leadership of John McCain and Ted Kennedy.  And because there was a bipartisan effort, we were actually able to generate a majority of votes in the Senate.  And we just missed being able to get it done in the House.

If we can re-create that atmosphere -- I don't expect to get every Republican vote, but I need some help in order to get it done.  And there have been people who have expressed an interest. But if they're willing to come forward and get a working group and get this moving, I’m actually confident that we can get it done.  And the American people -- including the people of Arizona -- are going to prefer that the federal government takes responsibility and does what it’s supposed to do.

It is a clear, simple message.  We'll have to see how much it resonates.  The basic Republican response is that "enforcement first" is somehow possible.  All sides, of course, have the "American people" on their side.

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Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Sue Myrick roboconference

A while ago I received my first roboconference call, from my very conservative Republican congressional representative, Sue Myrick.  The phone rings all across her district, you pick it up and hear her talk to fellow constituents, then press zero to get in the queue to ask a question.  Out of curiosity, I pushed zero to go down the rabbit hole, hoping to ask her about her view on HR 4321.  I was never given the opportunity, and when time ran out took the option of leaving a voice mail asking her to recognize the empirical errors of many of her callers regarding immigration.

But what a fascinating trip.  I stayed on for a half hour, just listening, to all sorts of topics.  Some people were clearly nuts, and one woman ranted that Nancy Pelosi--and I even had to write this down to remember it--"IS AN ENIGMA ON THIS COUNTRY!!" (I won't even get into the woman who said Obama was trying to take over "the church," whatever that is).  She was incensed about immigration because she hated hearing Spanish.  Her husband was German, so she seemed OK with immigration, but not if she had to hear Spanish (the Congresswoman did not tell her that recent immigrants work very hard to learn English).  However, another guy talked passionately about how he wanted more deportation, yet also we love cheap goods, so we need to figure out a way to get the cheap labor in legally.  I think that sentiment may be the real enigma on this country.

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Demography and immigration views

Interesting article in the NYT about the demography of views on immigration.  In short, older Americans are more restrictionist, and also whiter; younger Americans are more open to immigration, and more racially diverse.

That very different makeup of the young and the old can lead to tensions. Demographers say it has the potential to produce public policy that alienates the young because older people are more likely to vote and less likely to be connected to the perspectives of youth — especially the perspectives of young people of different races and national origins. 
This is not a new phenomenon--the gap between the ages of policy makers and the young is ever-present.  I think a really interesting issue is how the views of this diverse young population changes over time.  By the time they are policy makers, will they automatically retain these views, or will age also make them more skeptical of relatively open immigration policies?

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