More Piñera numbers

More bad news for Sebastián Piñera, this time from Adimark.  In the past month, his approval dropped from 52% to 46%, while disapproval jumped from 34% to 40%.  Approval of the government's job in general fell from 57% to 49%.

A senator from Renovación Nacional tried to blame Piñera's numbers on problems--particularly healthcare and Transantiago--he inherited from Michelle Bachelet.  Yet Bachelet was popular despite these issues.  And anyway, fair or not it's irrelevant.  He's the president now.

Yet there is an upside for him.  While 41% approve of the governing coalition (with 43% disapproval) there is only 33% approval of the Concertación (and 52% disapproval).  So Piñera has problems, but the Concertación is not in a good position to take advantage of them.  The funny thing is that I've written that many times when the coalitions were in opposite positions.  And as a political scientist, I also have to admit that these numbers can't tell us much about long-term trends.  But they're fun.

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Right and center in Latin America

Susan Kaufman Purcell's op-ed in the Miami Herald is poorly argued.  She argues that Latin America is moving to the right ideologically, and hopefully this means doing something to Hugo Chávez.  Several problems here:

First, polls show that Latin America has remained quite centrist ideologically, regardless of individual elections.

Second, she admits that the Chilean election was based almost entirely on non-ideological issues.

Third, her claim that Colombians voted for Juan Manuel Santos because of Hugo Chávez is not convincing.

Fourth, you cannot compare the Honduran election to other elections in the region, given the repressive context.

And she misspelled "augur."  I know that's petty, but it bugged me.

Update: In comments Randy Paul also notes that she mentions "Francisco" Calderón.  Nice.

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The Mexican border and crime

The abundance of evidence about the absence of a crime wave at the border is worthy of more attention, though backfire will prevent some of it from getting through.  From the El Paso Times, yet another example:

About 1,700 homicides have occurred in Juárez this year. El Paso has had one.

Despite the rampant bloodshed in Mexico, the overall crime rate in El Paso has decreased slightly this year.

Crime is not only not up, it is going down across the border from a Mexican city that is having incredibly serious problems.  This is begging for fieldwork.

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Borzutzky and Weeks Table of Contents

In a recent post about my recently published Chile book, a commenter had asked for a table of contents, so here you go:

Gregory B. Weeks and Silvia Borzutzky, "Introduction"

Peter M. Siavelis, "What it Takes to Win and What it Takes to Govern: Michelle Bachelet and the Concertación"

Robert L. Funk, "Parties, Personalities, and the President: The Challenges of the Bachelet Government's Political Narrative"

Gregory B. Weeks, "The Transition is Dead, Long Live the Transition: Civil-Military Relations and the Limits of Consensus"

Silvia Borzutzky, "Socioeconomic Policies: Taming the Market in a Globalized Economy"

Mary Rose Kubal, "Challenging the Consensus: The Politics of Protest and Policy Reform of Chile's Education System"

Kirsten Sehnbruch, "Unresolved Conflicts within the Consensus: Bachelet's Inheritance of Labor and Employment Issues"

Susan Franceschet, "Continuity or Change? Gender Policy in the Bachelet Administration"

Eduardo Silva and Patricio Rodrigo, "Contesting Private Property Rights: The Environment and Indigenous Peoples"

Aldo C. Vacs, "Conclusion. Paved with Good Intentions: The Bachelet Administration and the Decline of Consensus"

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Capitalism and socialism in Cuba & the U.S.

This BBC story about Raúl Castro and Cuban economic reforms made me think about how Cuba and the U.S. are in essentially opposite positions.

The U.S. is overwhelmingly capitalist, and any increased role of the state in the economy leads to screams of socialism.  Cuba is overwhelmingly socialist, and any decreased role of the state in the economy leads to screams of capitalism.

In the U.S., policy makers cannot say they are implementing socialist reforms.  In Cuba, policy makers cannot say they are implementing capitalist reforms.

Critics blame capitalism for economic problems in the U.S.  Critics blamed socialism for economic problems in Cuba.

And in both cases, despite lots of hot air, nothing much changes.

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CAFTA and other FTAs

The Obama administration is filing a labor law complaint against Guatemala, saying treatment of workers violates CAFTA rules.  The article quotes Chris Sabatini at Americas Society/Council of the America:

He said the decision to file the complaint was in part “an attempt to appease some elements of the A.F.L.-C.I.O. by demonstrating that the labor protections built into Cafta were not empty gestures.” 

I agree, but I would add more for a regional context.  The administration has continually expressed support (albeit tepid) for FTAs with Colombia and Panama, but treatment of labor has slowed them down to almost a halt.  By taking such a measure, the administration is also sending a signal to those who oppose those FTAs that it will take labor issues seriously.

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Paco Ignacio Taibo II's Return to the Same City

Ironically, despite the fact that Mexico City is the reference for Paco Ignacio Taibo II's Return to the Same City, there is less description of it than in many of his other novels, and more action takes place outside it.  The story revolves around a woman who hires Belascoarán Shayne to investigate her sister's murder (with the implication that he should kill the murderer).  Because of a recent attack on him, however, Shayne lives in a sometimes surreal state of paranoia that leaves him, among other things, suddenly finding himself on airplanes when he doesn't remember buying the ticket or boarding.

Then into this compact book we find crammed weapons sales to the Nicaraguan Contras, the guy who cut off Che Guevara's hands, a large band of mariachis, a CIA agent and some baby ducks.  He just manages to pull it back from the brink of unbelievability.  It is an entertaining story, and takes you all over Mexico.

Taibo makes a point at the beginning of the book to explain that the historical setting includes the rise of Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas's presidential campaign, though subsequently there were only scattered reference to him. That is unfortunate, because he has such a keen sense of politics.

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Borzutzky and Weeks, The Bachelet Government

is now out.  It is priced for libraries, but keep it in mind as a birthday or holiday present.  Nothing says "I love you" like an analysis of Chilean politics.

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A shootout with no winners

Just two days ago I wrote about how the Arizona law is a sign of everyone's failures.  Roberto Suro, who has been researching and writing about immigration for years, wrote an excellent op-ed for the Washington Post, beginning with the following:

Arizona's immigration law was never going to solve the problem of illegal immigration. That is not its purpose. Instead it is an invitation to a shootout in which there will be no winners. It is more of a provocation than an attempt to enact policy, and as a protest against Washington's failure to fix a broken immigration system, it resonates.

It's a very well-written piece.  An immigration system that functions properly must balance a wide variety of interest, but as he argues it must also consider what is good for the country as a whole:

Immigration policy needs to be about a lot of things, including national identity and security, but right now it needs to be about getting the economy's pulse up and improving our global economic competitiveness. These challenges are macro. The Arizona law offers micro solutions. It argues that immigration can be a law enforcement matter and pushes the decision-making down to the state and local level. That's a false hope regardless of where you stand on the issue, but it's a false hope that has struck a chord with many Americans.

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Plan Colombia and Mexico

Gustavo Flores-Macías has an op-ed in the New York Times discussing the lessons Mexico can take from Colombia with regard to the drug war.

The problem is that the two countries have ignored a fundamental lesson from the Colombian experience: foreign aid, security cooperation and judicial reform were necessary but not sufficient conditions for reducing violence. Plan Colombia succeeded because, at the same time that it stepped up its antidrug efforts, Colombia aggressively reformed its tax system and greatly improved government accountability. Unless Mexico can do the same, antidrug efforts there will fail.

Two thoughts came to mind.  First, it is nice to see reiteration of the fact that a militarized solution just won't work on its own.  Tax collection is indeed a critical but not very sexy aspect of governance.

Second, I don't believe I have seen anyone write "Plan Colombia succeeded."  It has always been largely drug-oriented, and as such simply cannot be considered successful.  As the World Drug Report shows us, coca cultivation in 2008 was roughly the same as in 1998.  There are ups and downs in cultivation, but even the downs remain quite high.  In 2005, a Congressional Research Report concluded the following:

While there has been measurable progress in Colombia’s internal security, as indicated by decreases in violence, and in the eradication of drug crops, no effect has been seen with regard to price, purity, and availability of cocaine and heroin in the United States. Military operations against illegally armed groups have intensified, but the main leftist guerrilla group seems no closer to agreeing to a cease-fire. The demobilization of rightist paramilitary fighters is proceeding, but without a legal framework governing the process. Critics of U.S. policy argue that respect for human rights by the Colombian security forces is still a problem, and that counternarcotics programs have negative consequences for the civilian population, and for the promotion of democracy in general.

Those issues have not changed much in the past five years, and the eradication only works if you compare to the very worst years.  There are many studies examining Plan Colombia, which argue convincingly against breezy assertions of success.  At the very least, not every success in Colombia should automatically be attributed to Plan Colombia, and not everything claimed as a success--like coca cultivation--really is one.  Finally, there are all sorts of consequences, like false positives, that must also be taken into account.

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Piñera's numbers

The new poll from the Centro de Estudios Públicos shows that Sebastián Piñera's numbers are stagnant:

Approval: 45%
Disapproval: 29%
Neither Approve nor Disapprove: 19%
Don't Know/Didn't Answer: 7%

In general, these numbers are lower than from Adimark and CERC, but even they have him fairly constant, hovering around 50%.

Chileans also have little confidence in how he is handling the economy, with 39% approving and 32% disapproving.  It is notable that Michelle Bachelet recovered in large part because of how she dealt with the financial crisis.  The right constantly argued that the Concertación hampered economic growth, but these numbers suggest that Chileans don't agree.

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More on enforcement first

I've been writing about the fact that it is likely impossible for the administration to "prove" it is being tough enough on enforcing immigration laws as a way to garner votes for immigration reform.  However, an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal by two high-level officials (Alan Bersin and John Morton) shows they're still trying the "enforcement first, reform after" strategy.

In all, more is being done—and more results are being achieved—to secure the border and enforce the law than ever before. This is important work that we will continue—throughout the nation and in Arizona—as we remain committed to actively working with members of Congress from both parties to make necessary reforms to our immigration laws.

I just don't think this will work.

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The policy of failure

Not too surprisingly, parts of Arizona's SB 1070 were blocked by a judge as the law takes effect today.  But even if you oppose the law, this should give you little joy.

Everyone seems ready for the issue to go upward and onward to the Supreme Court which, as a lengthy NYT article notes, has been moving rightward.  What "rightward" means in the immigration context is unclear given schisms within the right, and the issue hinges largely on the interpretation of immigration's place in both domestic and foreign policy.

Regardless, immigration policy should not be set by the Supreme Court.  The judicial system is dealing with it only because Congress refuses to do so.  This should be seen by everyone as a total failure.  The federal government needs to make immigration policy in a way that renders state activism largely unnecessary--if a working system is in place, then the states should not need to add much of their own.

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Enforcement first, nothing after

Michele Waslin at Immigration Impact takes a look at how by many measures the Obama administration has increased enforcement of immigration laws, in some cases much more so than the Bush administration, yet restrictionists argue he is doing less.

I wrote along similar lines a few months ago.  The rhetoric from opponents of immigration reform is that enforcement must occur first.  Since total enforcement is impossible, the second step will never come--the goal posts will simply keep moving.  So if administration officials are hoping the increased enforcement will bring in some votes, they are likely mistaken.  Instead, the administration may well lose votes from those who oppose that increase.

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More Venezuela and Colombia

Recently I suggested that Alvaro Uribe wanted to allow Juan Manuel Santos to enter office as the conciliator with Venezuela from a position of strength.  The Venezuelan response may mean that strategy is working quite well.

Venezuela's U.N. Ambassador Jorge Valero asked U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon at a meeting Monday afternoon to distribute a letter to the other U.N. member states which expresses hope that President-elect Juan Manuel Santos does not follow "the warmongering plans" of the U.S. government and Colombia's outgoing President Alvaro Uribe.

It also expresses hope that Santos, who takes office on Aug. 7, "gives clear and unambiguous signals that it has the political will to resume the path of dialogue, taking into consideration that the current government of Colombia has severed all diplomatic bridges with Venezuela."

So Uribe makes the accusations, which are now very public and therefore Venezuela cannot just ignore them.  Santos becomes president, says "I am not Uribe, let's discuss this FARC issue calmly" and Hugo Chávez must either accept the offer or look bad refusing.

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Chile: no amnesty for you

Following up on previous posts about requests from the Catholic Church and the Chilean military to use the bicentennial to amnesty some members of the military convicted of human rights abuses:

Sebastián Piñera says he won't do it.

He also uses a fascinating rationale, namely that it would reopen the wounds of the past.  That is particularly interesting because it is precisely the argument the military uses in favor of an amnesty.  For amnesty supporters, a country moves forward by halting trials and ending jail time.  That Piñera uses it in the opposite direction is a really novel and positive step.

He also uses the argument that an amnesty creates a slippery slope, which could then jeopardize convictions in other areas, such as narcotrafficking.  Given that the dictatorship is such a specific and historical context, I find this argument unconvincing.  Yet the fact that he used it anyway seems to show a commitment to using every possible argument to nix the overall idea.

Following the argument of my book on the topic from years ago, this is very good for civilian supremacy over the armed forces.  Finding no formal channels open to favorably address highly salient issues, retired military and other amnesty supporters went through less formal and more public contacts as a way to exert pressure.  Forced to react, the president--and one from the right no less--rebuffed them.  The fact that this is not a Concertación president is important too, because now there is no opposition to turn to (an issue my book did not address, since the right had been in opposition the entire time).

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Fun conspiracy theories

Eva Golinger writes about how Hugo Chávez "read from a secret memo he had been sent from an unnamed source inside the United States" with all sorts of vague but juicy information about some guy code-named Mauricio and how Costa Rica would help overthrow Chávez.

Pure comic conspiracy genius.  It is Mary Anastasia O'Grady in reverse.

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My member of Congress Part 2

On July 15, I wrote about how my member of Congress, Sue Myrick, believes that terrorists learn Spanish in Venezuela then enter the U.S. illegally through Mexico.  I didn't comment beyond that, given that the argument is, to put it mildly, nuts.

Then yesterday I received a form letter from the Congresswoman, dated July 22, which begins "Thank you for contacting me regarding illegal immigration and Arizona's new immigration law."  As I did not contact her, I can only assume it stemmed from the blog post.  The letter itself is bland and discusses her support for Arizona in fighting its "threat."

I am glad someone in her office checks in on my blog.  I would hope, however, that doing so would dispel some of the ridiculous conspiracy theories and lead to more focus on facts.  We can disagree on Arizona, but let's do so on empirical grounds.

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Colombia and Venezuela

Sara Miller Llana at the Christian Science Monitor looks at the Colombia-Venezuela dispute, and particularly at how it might affect President-elect Juan Manuel Santos:

President-elect Santos has indicated a willingness to forge a warmer relationship with Chávez, but this latest rift will set back those aspirations, says Carlos Romero, a political analyst at the Central University of Venezuela in Caracas. “The real loser here is Santos,” he says.

Mr. Romero agrees with Shifter that with Uribe out of office, there is hope of a stronger relationship. Even Chávez on Thursday indicated some willingness to put tensions behind. "Hopefully [Santos will] understand that leftist and right-wing governments can live together," Chávez was quoted saying.

“Colombia and Venezuela have different allies, but they are neighbors,” Mr. Romero says. “Unfortunately, Santos faces more obstacles now.”

I must say I disagree.  A more plausible argument is that Alvaro Uribe is doing this on purpose right before he leaves office, thus leaving Santos in the position of making nice with Hugo Chávez from a position of strength. Santos has already made a point of talking diplomatically, and thus far seems much less antagonistic than Uribe with regard to Venezuela.  Uribe will take all the heat, and Santos can calm things down.

Update: My idea is so good that Boz wrote about it a week ago.

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Bishops and human rights

The Chilean Conference of Bishops is asking the government to pardon members of the military who show repentance for human rights crimes during the dictatorship.

In their letter to Chilean President Sebastian Pinera, the bishops said that not all of those convicted of committing crimes under the rule of Gen Pinochet shared equal responsibility.

"In our view, a general pardon is as much out of the question as a blanket refusal to pardon any former member of the armed forces convicted," they wrote in their statement.

I don't really follow that logic.  Some committed worse crimes than others, but that means their punishments vary as well, not that some are pardoned and some are not.

More from the Catholic News Agency:

“We are simply presenting to the country’s leaders the painful reality experienced by many persons deprived of freedom who have been convicted and have completed most of their sentences,” they said.  “It is for them that we request, in this bicentennial, a gesture of clemency, as we have done in the past with other situations of great human suffering.”

The bishops said female prisoners with children, elderly prisoners, and terminally ill prisoners, should be among those considered in their request, with some having their sentences reduced, and others being freed if they no longer constitute a danger to society and have shown good behavior in prison.

This is not the first time the bicentennial has been brought up in this way--last month retired officers asked Sebastián Piñera to provide a blanket amnesty on that date.

I would mostly repeat what I wrote then, which is that Piñera has little to gain and much to lose from doing so, and likely little interest.  If he does, it will be an indication of the continued strong influence of both the Catholic Church and the military.

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