Hello President

Fidel called in to Hugo Chávez’s radio show “Hello President.” The BBC has an edited (and translated) transcript. A big chunk involves praising each other (Castro tells Chávez, “you will be one of the greatest writers in this hemisphere”). They also debate who studies and reads more, and even who has partied the most (says Chávez, “I never partied as much as you”).

I couldn’t help get the sense that it was like two boys at a slumber party. I wonder how true that generally is of close allies. For example, it’s hard to picture Kim Il Sung and Mao hamming it up, or Reagan and Thatcher giggling with each other.

One further note. In the call, Castro also says, “I feel good and I’m happy.” In other words, it appears he’s still not dead.

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Immigration and crime

Rubén Rumbaut and Walter Ewing have published a thought provoking study on immigrant assimilation in the U.S. Conventional wisdom suggests that recent immigrants are likely to commit crimes. They are young, predominantly male, poor, and not well educated, so we assume they are more dangerous.

Empirically, however, this is not true. As they demonstrate, crime rates have decreased even as immigration has increased (and the patterns hold over the last three censuses). In addition, the foreign born population is much less likely to commit crimes than the native born. In fact, the least likely groups from Latin America to commit crimes are foreign-born Mexicans, Salvadorans, and Guatemalans, who are precisely the people cited in the media as being more of a problem. They are the least educated, yet also the most law abiding.

One sad conclusion is that assimilation into U.S. culture entails becoming more violent, more likely to take drugs, drink, etc. In other words, we should all start acting a little bit more like recent immigrants…

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Venezuelan influence

The NYT reports on Hugo Chávez’s recent travels, as he attempts to become a major donor in the region and supplant the U.S. as the major influence.

I disagree with Steven Taylor at Poliblog about whether aid necessarily means that a country will act in accordance with Chávez’s will (he uses the term “client state"). Influence only goes so far, as the UN vote demonstrated, and in some cases (like Bolivia) Chávez is often facilitating rather than directing.

At the very least, we would need to see Chávez trying to get a president to do something he/she otherwise would not do to determine his independent influence. Along these lines, he has learned well from the United States. If you don’t like something another country is doing, then punish it by taking out your investment. Chávez did so with Costa Rica because President Arias criticized him. But would he threaten to turn off the oil spigot if Daniel Ortega does something he doesn’t like?

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"War on terror" in El Salvador

From Tim's El Salvador Blog: last year El Salvador passed an anti-terrorism law, and now it has been applied to arrest the leader of street vendors in San Salvador for his role in protests that turned violent. This means he will lose many normal rights, with anonymous witnesses, harsher prison sentence, etc. There's nothing like vague laws in the name of the "war on terror" that can be applied to anyone at anytime for any reason.

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Venezuelan defense spending

The NYT has an article on Venezuela’s military spending and arms build up (which I’ve briefly noted before) and it does a good job of explaining the views of both proponents and opponents. Even for Chávez supporters, however, it is hard to imagine anything positive about the massive amounts being spent.

• it is money that could be spent on economic development

• if the U.S. wanted to oust Chávez, it would try to do so internally and not by invasion, so a deterrence force is pointless

• it could easily spark a regional arms race (at least to some degree, and any degree is bad)

• arguing that Venezuela spends proportionately less than the U.S. or other countries is not a good rationale (it is similar to the “you can’t criticize Chávez because what Bush does is worse” argument)

• since the National Assembly is not being consulted, it is another example of the erosion of Venezuelan democratic institutions

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Suckage Index

Especially with the internet, there is more access to baseball statistics, and people are always finding new ways to manipulate them. A new one making its way through the blogosphere is pretty funny: the Suckage Index. It was created by Batter’s Box for pitchers, but now has been applied to hitters.

You calculate it as follows: (80-OPS+) * PA, which has been defined as “suckage density times suckage volume.”

Geoff Young at Ducksnorts shows the calculations for the worst Padres hitters in history in a single season. The worst ever, by far, was Ozzie Smith in 1979, with a Suckage score of 21,417. Too bad that the guy we traded him for, Garry Templeton, had the third worst in 1987.

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Another Chávez analysis

The Washington Post has an article about Hugo Chávez’s efforts to expand his influence in Latin America. By and large, it is a balanced look, despite the headline, “Chávez Builds His Sphere of Influence.”

I got the impression that the editors told the reporters to get a juicy story along the “Chávez throws money around and then everyone does his bidding” lines we keep hearing. Ultimately, though, the reporters discovered that such an argument doesn’t hold very well. Instead, they write:

• Chávez’s campaign has had mixed results, with many Latin American presidents paying attention to social issues while also remaining friendly with investors

• according to a Latinobarómetro poll, a majority of Latin Americans lump Chávez, Castro and Bush together as “bad leaders”

• Chávez has pledged $47 billion in assistance, even though Venezuela’s entire budget is only $50 billion, so he won’t be carrying out many of his promises anyway

• a drop in private investment and high inflation raises questions about Chávez’s ability to keep up current levels of spending abroad

This article, like many others, could just as easily be “U.S. Fails to Offer Any Alternative to Chávez.” To counter the idea that U.S. influence is waning, Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs Thomas Shannon replied that two-thirds of economic output in the Americas was covered by free trade agreements. If your definition of influence boils down to whether you persuaded a country to join up with an FTA, then you need to do some more thinking.

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Let's do the time warp again

In the face of proposals to open up more to Cuba, the Bush administration trotted out Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez to announce that no changes to Cuba policy would be acceptable.

Gutierrez described as ''naive'' talk that more U.S. contacts with the island would weaken the Castro government. Dealing with Fidel's brother and interim leader Raúl would be a ``tragic mistake.''

Discussing contacts in terms of weakening the Castro government is missing the point. Instead, the question should be whether refusing to make contacts has hurt the average Cuban (not to mention U.S. businesses) while strengthening the Castro government. It seems more naïve to argue that a strategy in place for over 40 years can still be considered functional even though it has not achieved its stated goal.

We negotiated with the Soviet Union, even more famously with China, with Vietnam, and just recently even with North Korea (though its nuclear capabilities obviously had a lot to do with that). But with Cuba we’re stuck permanently in the early 1960s. Eisenhower got the embargo ball rolling—I don’t think U.S. policy toward many other countries dates back to Ike.

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You know things are bad when...

...the armored car industry in your country is having a record year.

"This country is already among the top three markets for armoring in North and South America. Armored cars are here to stay," said Esteban Hernandez, head of Mexico's association of armored vehicle producers.

With dozens killed in drug gang-related violence each month, the association predicted Tuesday that 2007 would be a record year, making Mexico one of the world's top markets for armor-plating cars.

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Want to lose a drug war? Give us a call

Last month, Adam Isacson at Plan Colombia and Beyond wrote that General Peter Pace, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, claimed that the U.S. counter-insurgency and anti-drug campaign in Colombia was a good model for Afghanistan.

Why would any serious person - much less the top-ranking military officer in the United States - view Colombia's experience as a model to be repeated anywhere else, much less a country - like Afghanistan - that is several degrees poorer and less governed than Colombia?

Very good question, as the “war on drugs” in Colombia is clearly being lost. Coca cultivation is stable (or even increasing) while the use of herbicides is being decried, violence is widespread, and distrust of the government in rural areas is rife. All the while, the guerrillas are as strong as ever.

Fast forward to this month, as the first group of Afghan police have arrived in Colombia to learn the best ways to lose a drug war while also alienating the local population.

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Castañeda article

I’ve often criticized the U.S. media for its portrayal of Latin America. I just read an article in Newsweek International, feeling the same general annoyance at the oversimplification and over-emphasis on the power of Hugo Chávez, then suddenly realized it was written by Jorge Castañeda. He is a very well known political science professor (I liked his book Utopia Unarmed) and former Foreign Minister of Mexico.

In short, the article attributes much of recent Latin American political change to Chávez in ways that defy common sense. The main hypothesis is that Chávez helps other countries, and as a result the presidents of those countries concentrate power and damage democracy. I’m always uncomfortable with analyses that ignore domestic politics this much—does someone like President Kirchner really just respond to Chávez? Further, does Chávez really wield that kind of power? Last year we saw the limitations of doling out oil money, as he could not garner the necessary votes to win the Security Council seat.

What I do agree with is Castañeda's argument that the Bush administration’s refusal to play a positive role in the region encourages Chávez and offers no alternative vision of the future. All the U.S. does is repeat the free trade mantra ad nauseam, while proclaiming the need to build a big wall to keep Latin Americans out.

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February 18

My son Ben turned five today, and for the second year in row--at his request--we invited a bunch of his preschool friends to Chuck E. Cheese's. His face says it all.

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Cuban search engine

Just the other day, I was joking about Cuba trying to get its own search engine to avoid the imperialist evil of Google. In fact, they just unveiled one, called Dos por Tres and anyone can give it a whirl. The catch, of course, is that you can only access approved Cuban government sites. There is a huge bonus, though, in a special feature that allows you to search through a huge electronic database of Fidel speeches.

When I did searches, the results were mostly from Radio Habana. So, for example, after typing “Fidel salud” (Fidel health) the first result was news that “important Guatemalan personalities” hoped for Fidel’s recovery. I typed in “Bush” and the first result was from the website “Cuba Socialista” and entitled “Bush’s re-election and the Cuban counter-revolution.” Exciting stuff. I also learned that the Cuban government has a website dedicated entirely to Elián González.

Finally, I had to take a look at the speech database, but unfortunately it seemed to offer the exact same results as any of the other categories (general, images, press, etc.). It’s still a beta version, so we’ll have to wait.

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Venezuela and Al Qaeda

Both Boz and Ka have noted the fact that a Saudi branch of Al Qaeda has called for attacks on suppliers of oil to the U.S., including Mexico and Venezuela, and how this confuses the antagonism between Presidents Bush and Chávez.

In fact, it seems to be confusing the Chávez administration. One of his military advisors was quoted as saying it was illogical that “al Qaeda, which is against North American imperialism, would go against a state that is fighting, though in a different way, against that hegemony." A Venezuelan lawmaker claimed that the U.S. was the source of the threat.

I think what we’re seeing here is the limitation to the “enemy of my enemy is my friend” foreign policy that Chávez has been pursuing. We hear all the time about insidious Middle Eastern influences in Venezuela, most notably Iran, but the common strategic interests are almost nonexistent. Although Chávez may like to think he is emerging as the leader of an anti-U.S. policy camp, Al Qaeda has every reason to distrust him because for all his rhetoric, Chávez helps keep the U.S. economy humming along by exporting oil and continuing to invite capitalist investment even as he begins nationalization in some sectors.

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Spring training

It is currently 34 degrees here in Charlotte, but pitchers and catchers are reporting to spring training today. It's a more effective indicator than a groundhog that spring and baseball season are not too far off.

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Gabriel Thompson's There's No Jose Here

I read and recommend Gabriel Thompson’s There No José Here, and I’ve put it on my sidebar. I especially liked it because it offers a wide ranging, warts and all view of Mexican immigration to New York. He is obviously sympathetic to Enrique, the focus of the book (they are close friends), but does not paper over the problems of young pregnancies, child rearing, machismo, etc. It even includes a trip to the small Mexican town where Enrique came from.

The issue that caught my attention the most was how brazenly poor immigrants (and, certainly, native-born poor as well) are exploited in New York City. Landlords routinely ignored court orders to fix buildings or even get rid of the lead-based paint that severely affected many children, including one of Enrique’s. As Enrique says, “Every Mexican has a problem with their landlord.”

In another example, the author walked right into a sweatshop where Enrique’s wife worked. They were paying less than minimum wage, in truly horrible conditions, but the owners had no fear. I suppose this was a combination of knowing illegal immigrants were not likely to complain, and that the city wouldn’t do anything about it anyway.

In a lighter moment, they are in South Carolina, where Enrique’s father lives, and he shows how much immigrants do want to fit in. The father says he wants to find a University of South Carolina Gamecocks decal for his truck. When asked if the Gamecocks are any good, he replies:

"Actually, I don’t know…I don’t watch the games. After all my years here, I still can’t figure out what the rules are or how they keep score. All you see are a bunch of people standing around on a field. Real fat people. Gordos. Doesn’t make much sense to me. But everyone here has that sticker on their car, and I like it.” (p. 152)

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The wild colt of new technologies

Why does Cuba limit internet access to its citizens? Because of U.S. imperialism. Furthermore, says Cuba’s Communications Minister, we need to control “the wild colt of new technologies.” You know, that newfangled internet thing, which is just a series of tubes. He noted that the U.S. has blocked Cuba from connecting to fiber-optic networks, and that Google and Microsoft are tools of the empire anyway. To deal with the former, Hugo Chávez promised to lay a cable between Venezuela and Cuba. To deal with the latter (where he has a valid point in terms of giving the government information about what people do online), Chávez should use some oil money and create a Bolivarian Search Engine, which could prevent people from accessing counter-revolutionary sites or supporters of Mr. Danger.

Incidentaly, Granma covers the minister’s statements, but chooses not to include any of his statements about “control.”

I do wonder, though, why the U.S. wants to make it more difficult for Cubans to access the internet. Even if there is a risk of getting money into Cuba via electronic transactions, wouldn’t it make more sense to encourage savvy Cubans to get around government firewalls and communicate more with the outside world and even with each other? So much of our Cuba policy is based on the premise “we’ll try to hurt you as much as possible so that you’ll join us.”

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Food shortages in Venezuela

The Chávez government is preparing a decree to give the government control over food distribution if shipments and sales of food halt. There have been serious problems with shortages and a thriving black market.

Keeping the price of essential food items reasonable is no easy task. Where poverty is a serious problem, it is entirely reasonable for a government to enact laws to address the issue. But as I’ve been reading news about shortages, supermarket lines, hoarding, and the black market, and then the government’s ad hoc reaction, with a patchwork of new laws, accusations, police raids, combined with chronic mismanagement and corruption, one thought really came to me. The “revolution” in Venezuela was supposed to be different, a dream of 21^st century socialism that learned from its 20^th century predecessors. But this particular pattern is one that has been followed many times in Latin America; it is the same old story. Where is the new, improved, carefully crafted plan?

I’d be so much more apt to listen to President Chávez if there was just something new. Something original. I haven’t seen it yet.

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The need for immigrant labor

The L.A. Times has an intriguing story on a California town, Lindsay, that is struggling to persuade its Mexican immigrants—many of whom are undocumented—to stay. Desperate to have the necessary labor to pick and process oranges, the town is promoting local projects to provide employment when the season ends. The recent freeze meant fewer oranges and less work, thus putting pressure on those immigrants to find more stable jobs elsewhere.

The town’s elected officials are all Republican, but are promoting an FDR-inspired program to keep their illegal immigrants happy. The simple reason is that many local economies depend on immigrants:

"It helps all of us," said 71-year-old Bill Martin, who owns a tire shop in town. "I don't particularly care for illegal people in the U.S., but if they come in and want to buy a tire, I'll accommodate them. If you don't have people come, you won't get the fruit picked. And if the fruit doesn't get picked, nobody will have money to buy anything."

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Using English in Charlotte schools

Not long ago, a high school student here recited the Pledge of Allegiance, then was asked if he would say it in Spanish. He did so, and a controversy was born. One parent in particular took up the English-only banner and today published an opinion piece in the Charlotte Observer. It really must be read to be believed. Here are some highlights, and rest assured I am not making this up.

--if the Pledge is spoken in another language, it hurts our war effort

--pluralism weakens us, which is why all pilots worldwide use English

--the American flag is a symbol of using English

--we must remain united, and using other languages at school functions weakens that unity, while criticizing those who say English unites us is just another way of weakening our unity, so the best plan is to use English, which will unite us

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