Not a happy year's end for Bachelet

Michelle Bachelet’s December approval rating was 39%, with a disapproval of 42%. This has now remained quite stable over the past several months, but represents a 13% drop since December 2006. Strangely enough, Pinochet’s death one year ago ended up marking the beginning of a serious slide for Bachelet.

To make matters worse, the Christian Democrats kicked Adolfo Zaldívar out of the party for siding with the opposition on the Transantiago funding vote. The Concertación—and by extension Bachelet—is in disarray.

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Immigration in 2007

Peter Schrag has a level-headed discussion of immigration policy in the latest issue of The Nation. He examines the local laws being passed and the vagaries of public opinion, which is never as anti-immigrant (not even anti-undocumented immigrant) as restrictionists claim, something we should always keep in mind.

At that point the nation may look back on this period as another of those eras, like the Red Scare of the 1920s or the McCarthy years of the '50s, when the nation became unhinged; politicians panicked; and scattershot federal, state and local assaults led to unfocused, and often cruel, harassment. It may be seen in retrospect as a desperate rearguard attempt to freeze Anglo-white places and power in a mythic past.

I especially like the image of becoming "unhinged," which is right on the money.

h/t Bender's Immigration Bulletin.

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Conference terrorism

Ferule and Fescue has a phrase for academia that made me laugh—“conference terrorism.”

I believe I coined this term last year to describe those aggressively bad papers that hold an entire room hostage while they're being delivered. But last night I saw a slightly different form of terrorism during the one panel I attended: during the Q&A a kindly-looking grey-haired man in the audience attacked every single member of the panel (two of whom were graduate students, one a second-year assistant professor) with very long, very hostile criticisms that weren't really questions. The panelists did an impressive job of parrying, but it was a deeply uncomfortable-making experience.

I would alter it slightly, though maybe this is discipline-specific. I care less about bad papers than I do bad presentations, which sometimes are of good papers. For example, no one should read their paper—or at least big chunks of it--which I see far too much. I would certainly give exceptions for graduate students as they get experience, but in general we should all be prepared enough to present a paper without reading anything but a few notes.

I totally agree with the second observation. I have seen many situations where an audience member seeks not to engage the author, or even to ask a question at all, but simply to air their own views, which also are often slightly off topic.

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Huckabee, foot, mouth

According to Mike Huckabee, the assassination of Benazir Bhutto means we need to increase border security with Mexico. He thinks Pakistanis are second to "immediately south of the border" in illegal crossings.

No, I am not joking. Did I mention he is running for president?

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U.S. reaction to hostage release

With all the news about hostage release in Colombia, I started wondering what the official U.S. position was. The fact that Hugo Chávez arranged it, and Alvaro Uribe is being marginalized, can’t sit too well with the Bush administration. On top of that, and rarely remarked upon, is the fact that Chávez also arranged to include governments close to him, namely Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Cuba, Ecuador and France, four of which currently have terrible relations with the United States.

I’ve been looking all around, and am coming to the conclusion that the U.S. government is trying to pretend that it isn’t happening. You can’t really say anything bad about it, but your head might spin and green vomit might spew if you say something complimentary about Chávez.

I found two older references--at a late November conference on the topic, the State Department spokesman was asked about the situation, and he refused even to say Chávez’s name, instead just talking vaguely of letting Uribe do what he felt was necessary. Condoleezza Rice did the same in October.

If anyone sees any current official reactions, I’d be interested to see them.

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FARC hostage release

The FARC is releasing three hostages into Hugo Chávez’s custody—more specifically, Venezuelan planes, but Chávez was the key figure. The FARC’s decision came soon after Alvaro Uribe had given Chávez the boot, so it seems timed to make Uribe look bad. Most news stories on the topic do not mention a quid pro quo, or say only that the FARC wanted to show its affinity for Chávez. No prisoner swap has been announced up to now.

I find this a little strange. It is reasonable to argue that this is a symbolic move by the FARC to make sure Chávez stays in the picture and embarrass Uribe, but why do they not make that more clear? I went to the FARC’s website, which does not even mention the situation at all. Maybe it is a multi-step process that eventually will include release of FARC members in Colombian prisons, but everyone is keeping mum.

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Mark Prior

The Padres have agreed to terms with Mark Prior. I love this deal because I think it has no downside. Given his shoulder problems it is hard to imagine him getting back to his previous form (he didn't even play in 2007, and really his great numbers were four years ago) but handled well he could really contribute. Bud Black is a former pitcher and pitching coach, so should be in a great position to guide him along. I also like the Jim Edmonds deal of a few weeks ago. No blockbusters, but some solid signings.

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Graham Greene's The Honorary Consul

I read Graham Greene’s The Honorary Consul, first published in 1973. I was prompted to read it after seeing Jeff Barry’s review at Buenos Aires, City of Faded Elegance. It is set in the northern Argentine town of Corrientes, on the border with Paraguay, and tells the story of Paraguayan revolutionaries conducting a botched kidnapping, intending to get the U.S. Ambassador to Argentina but ending up with the Honorary British Consul.

For a Cold War novel it is noteworthy that Greene paints all the characters sympathetically. We are not inclined to dislike the police colonel, the former priest-turned-revolutionary, the alcoholic honorary consul, his prostitute wife, or the strikingly amoral Doctor Plarr, around whom the plot revolves. Further, they are all sympathetic to each other, as neither fear nor loathing is apparent. Greene is more interested in the relationships between the characters than the political context itself.

It has a tight plot, which constantly left me wondering how it might end (i.e. we know some combination of people will likely die, but who?). Throughout, most of the characters reflect on the circumstances that brought them there, which increases the tension. Despite the political nature of the novel, it focuses quite a lot on love and commitment—not only in terms of personal relationships but also political causes--as important themes.

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Another record drug seizure

Last month I wrote about the use of “record” with regard to fighting drug trafficking. Everything is a “record” to show how well the drug war is progressing. Now the news is that with the help of the U.S. Coast Guard, Costa Rica reports a biggest pot bust in the country's history. For reasons not clear to me, they explain it was enough “to roll 17,600 joints.” Since when did we start measuring marijuana busts in terms of potential rolled joints?

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Leaving Ecuador

The government of Ecuador estimates that 403,000 people have emigrated in the past four years and have not returned. Emigration has really bothered Rafael Correa (who has called it a “national tragedy”) and the government is working on a variety of projects to remain connected to citizens abroad and to encourage them to return. Of course, these efforts also include facilitating the inexpensive and easy sending of remittances. There has been a lot of talk recently about how remittances to Mexico have dropped, but to Ecuador they continue to rise (up 7.5% from last year).

Correa has also held talks with the governments of Spain and Italy, which is where most migrants go, in addition to the United States. Given the political atmosphere here, not to mention the fact that Correa himself was treated like a potential criminal by immigration officials at the airport in Miami, it is a safe bet that he will not have similar talks with the Bush Administration.

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Prospects for change in Cuba policy

Wayne Smith, former head of the U.S. Interests Section in Havana who is a longtime observer of U.S.-Cuban relations, co-wrote an article on U.S. policy for the Center for International Policy. It seeks to find some optimism:

Cuba is on the cusp of change. By contrast, there has been little change in Washington. U.S. policy toward Cuba remains as ill-conceived and counterproductive as ever.

There is hope, however, that the changing political equation in Miami, pressure from economic interest groups interested in trade and investment, and support by the majority of Americans for normalization of relations with Cuba will lead long overdue policy change after the 2008 elections.

I find the optimism a bit forced. The logic is that many Cuban Americans are becoming Democrats, which might create support for a change in policy, but then they also note that Democrats have failed to do anything. So far, economic interest groups haven’t acted in concert to pressure the government. The article also does not note that the Democratic candidates have very different views on Cuba so it also depends on who is elected.

One point I found amusing was the so-called “Grandmother Factor,” where young Cuban Americans don’t want to admit to their grandmothers that they either registered Democrat or lean toward toward the Democratic Party.

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Speculation about Maletagate

Boz has been following Maletagate--or as he puts it, “Bags o’ Cash”--in several posts, and I would direct readers there for summary and some comment debate. As I wrote in comments there, I think it is too early to judge reactions to the case, and there is still much to learn about it. However, it got me speculating about the potential political winners and losers.

The Bush Administration: despite the separation between Justice and State, in my opinion it is impossible to see this as an apolitical case. This means the U.S. has much to lose, because flimsy evidence will bring down a rain of criticism for manufacturing a scandal for political reasons. Convincing evidence—and “convincing” is obviously subjective—connecting the $800,000 and alleged efforts to hush up the main suspect (the fact that his name is “Guido” seems so appropriate) to the Venezuelan government could damage Chávez, but I doubt this would hurt Venezuelan-Argentine relations much.

Hugo Chávez: if the evidence is flimsy, it is more ammunition for criticism of the U.S. government. However, Chávez’s key challenges right now are domestic, and so I don’t think this will help him much politically. However, it could help solidify his relationship with Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, which is very valuable politically.

If the evidence is more solid, he will suffer internationally because his rhetoric has always been anti-interventionist so he could easily be labeled a hypocrite. As the latest Latinobarómetro survey shows, he isn’t very popular in Latin America anyway, so it might not matter more than marginally. Domestically, it could give the opposition some fodder, but again, the key issues in Venezuela right now revolve around domestic policy.

Cristina Fernández de Kirchner: I think she has the most to gain of anyone, though I must admit this is even more speculative. Her indignant response—even now including the Argentine Congress--right now has put the U.S. government back on its heels, which she can use to her own advantage because the U.S. doesn’t want to alienate her. If the evidence is flimsy, then she talks tough to her domestic audience, stays friends with Hugo Chávez, and extracts concessions from the U.S. behind the scenes.

If the evidence is more solid, she expresses disgust, fires some people, and reminds everyone that her husband already reacted aggressively right off the bat. Dealing with Chávez would be trickier, because it would not be plausible to say such an affair took place without him knowing about it. She would have to find a way to be critical while staying friendly, as she—like many other Latin American presidents—views ties to Chávez as valuable in pragmatic terms, regardless of ideology.

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How Cuba policy makes the U.S. less safe

From the NYT: the GAO is about to release a report arguing that the U.S. government is so intent on enforcing sanctions against Cuba that it is neglecting other, more important missions. The bottom line is that obsession with seizing contraband cigars and rum means real potential national security threats go unexamined.

Catching Americans who travel illegally to Cuba or who purchase cigars, rum or other products from the island may be distracting some American government agencies from higher-priority missions like fighting terrorism and combating narcotics trafficking, a government audit to be released Wednesday says.

The report, from the Government Accountability Office, says that Customs and Border Protection, which is part of the Department of Homeland Security, conducts secondary inspections on 20 percent of charter passengers arriving from Cuba at Miami International Airport, more than six times the inspection rate for other international arrivals, even from countries considered shipment points for narcotics.

That high rate of inspections and the numerous seizures of relatively benign contraband “have strained C.B.P.’s capacity to carry out its primary mission of keeping terrorists, criminals and inadmissible aliens from entering the country at Miami International Airport,” says the audit, a copy of which was obtained by The New York Times.

The audit also called on the Treasury Department to scrutinize the priorities of its Office of Foreign Assets Control, which enforces more than 20 economic and trade sanctions programs, including those aimed at freezing terrorists’ assets and restricting the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, but has long focused on Cuba.

Between 2000 and 2006, 61 percent of the agency’s investigation and penalty caseload involved Cuba embargo cases. Over that period, the office opened 10,823 investigations into possible violations involving Cuba and just 6,791 investigations on all other cases, the audit found.

This report will definitely be worth a read. It is absurd enough to argue that the sanctions make the United States safer, but it’s even worse when other issues are neglected as a result.

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Huckabee and Cuba

Next semester I teach U.S.-Latin American relations, and will definitely be using Mike Huckabee’s stance on Cuba policy because it so perfectly illustrates why U.S. policy is so poorly thought out and counterproductive.

As governor of Arkansas, Huckabee made a point of opposing the embargo. Like so many other governors of farm states—many of them Republicans—he thought it made little sense as it clearly was not working, and he saw significant trade potential for his state.

Now that he is running for president, he changed his mind completely because he wants to court the Cuban American vote in Florida. He claims simply to have seen the light, so that after listening to the words of hardliners, he realizes he must do what’s good for the country, which means doing nothing different. He does not elaborate on how that is good for the United States, but he does say it shows he can “stand tall.”

While courting Rubio's support over the past year, Huckabee said he began to appreciate the perspective of many Cuban-American exiles, who believe lifting the embargo would support a repressive regime.

''He really helped me understand some of the key issues that are so very important not just to Cuban-American community but to all Americans in terms of protecting freedom and standing tall,'' Huckabee said. ``As president I commit that we would veto any legislation that would lift the embargo that is currently in place because we must keep that pressure on.''

The Cuban American vote is no longer the bloc it once was. There is, in fact, quite a bit of debate about how splintered the Cuban American vote might be in the Florida Republican primary. It is therefore even more sad to see a candidate completely renounce his own views to pander to that small audience.

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Bolivia deals

Evo Morales finally has some good news, as he is making deals with both Brazil and Chile. After the 2006 nationalization dispute relations with Brazil had cooled, but now Petrobras is once again going to invest in natural gas. Meanwhile, all three governments are going to build a highway from the Atlantic to Pacific Oceans.

Citing Brazilian diplomats, the Reuters article frames the Brazilian move as a way to re-establish Brazil’s position of leadership from Venezuela. This seems plausible, as Brazil wants to be the regional leader and historically has had closer ties to Bolivia than Venezuela had. But there is also the simple bottom line—there is money to be made. As for Chile, Bachelet has been working hard to improve relations with Bolivia. The relationship is still prickly, but improved.

As I read the story, I wondered whether it would have any impact on the current political crisis. It could serve to enhance Morales’ stature, as he demonstrates that a) he can act as a statesman; and b) that nationalization did not mean an end to foreign investment. On the other hand, it has no impact on his overall effort to centralize power and the resistance to it.

UPDATE: Thanks to my student Chris for pointing out that Bolivia is also negotiating a $2 billion gas exploration deal with Russia's Gazprom.

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What next in Bolivia?

The central government and departments in Bolivia are espousing positions that are mutually exclusive. Four departments have declared autonomy, a move--the details of which are vague--the government labels illegal. Evo Morales, meanwhile, is celebrating the draft of a new constitution, passed by his supporters and labeled illegal by the opposition.

Nonetheless, even the government is saying the issue of autonomy is part of the constitutional debate and therefore can serve to initiate dialogue. Hopefully, the declarations of autonomy are part of an elaborate public negotiation. The OAS sent an envoy, and José Miguel Insulza will be arriving soon, which can provide cover for both sides to come to the bargaining table.

I haven’t seen anything more about the timing of the recall vote, which presumably will take place in early 2008.

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Thoughts on democratators

Maybe a year or so ago I spent some time complaining about the loose use of the terms “left” and “leftist,” especially in the media but also in academia. Thankfully, that has changed a bit over time, as the differences between all the supposedly leftist presidents has become clear, so I tend to see less of the lumping together. The focus now is on Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia (interestingly, Nicaragua never seems to rate).

Let me take Daniel Drezner’s recent article in Newsweek, however, as an example of some analytical issues that still need resolution. He notes correctly that both Rafael Correa and Evo Morales are trying to bypass the elected opposition, though of course we’ll have to see what happens with the Bolivian recall vote (which he does not mention).

He, like many others, now uses the catchy term “democratator.” The origin of this term is, I think, Guillermo O’Donnell’s “democradura,” by which he intended to mean “hard democracy” but can also be seen as a combination of “democracia” and “dictadura.” The essential argument is that elections occur, but executive power is highly centralized, perhaps even in a single individual, and opposition is suppressed.

So far, so good, but the devil is in the details. The article is about authoritarian governments, but he compares Pakistan, China and Egypt, where free and fair elections have not taken place, to Latin America, where they have. No matter what you think of Correa, he is not Musharraf. Nor is Chávez the same as Hosni Mubarak.

Then, after citing Chávez as a “democratator,” he then also uses him as an example of the potential democratic future of the world. The money quote is “the Venezuelan people rebuffed their democratator's wishes.” But if they rebuffed him, and he accepted it, and everything goes on, is he in fact a “democratator”?

As readers of this blog know, I have all sorts of concerns about the abuse of executive power in Latin America, though at the moment I think we should be more concerned about Bolivia and Ecuador than Venezuela. It doesn’t do us any good, though, to toss around terms that tend mostly to lump together countries and/or leaders of which we are suspicious.

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U.S. and Latin American Relations

My textbook U.S. and Latin American Relations is now out! If you teach a course, then you can get yourself an exam copy. It combines discussion of major theories with historical background and key current issues. The book has a variety of pedagogical features that are listed on the Longman website.

I guess the cover hasn’t been digitized yet, which is too bad because I really like it.

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Political leaders being...political

I have to say I am really mad. Apparently Hugo Chávez is once again providing discounted heating oil to the poor in Massachusetts. Horrible but true.

An article in CNN Money notes how this dictator—defined as a leader who wins and loses free elections—is making political hay by being nice, which is pure evil. I agree.

I also hate it when big naval ships go places and give people urgent care they otherwise wouldn’t receive. All that free pediatric care really gets my goat. Who do those kids think they are? I have nothing but dripping contempt for cross-national sympathy and understanding, which is really a waste of my time and precious tax dollars.

I just think that politicians ought to stop doing good things for political reasons. Humanitarian impulses demean us all.

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Fujimori blues

Alberto Fujimori was convicted of abuse of power and sentenced to six years, but he has a variety of other, more serious charges, still pending related to human rights. The interesting part of this particular charge is that it involved a warrantless search to see if his former intelligence head, Vladimir Montesinos, had damaging evidence like videotapes, which over time he had collected like comic books to blackmail politicians, judges, etc.

The National Security Archive just recently posted some U.S. government documents obtained through FOIA, which are added to a number of documents already declassified. One is a graphic account of the Japanese Embassy hostage crisis as members of MRTA who surrendered had their heads blown off. The second document is an analysis, essentially saying that although the rescue operation was popular, the “strong-arm” tactics that characterized it were starting to alienate the population.

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