Prospects for change in Cuba policy

Wayne Smith, former head of the U.S. Interests Section in Havana who is a longtime observer of U.S.-Cuban relations, co-wrote an article on U.S. policy for the Center for International Policy. It seeks to find some optimism:

Cuba is on the cusp of change. By contrast, there has been little change in Washington. U.S. policy toward Cuba remains as ill-conceived and counterproductive as ever.

There is hope, however, that the changing political equation in Miami, pressure from economic interest groups interested in trade and investment, and support by the majority of Americans for normalization of relations with Cuba will lead long overdue policy change after the 2008 elections.

I find the optimism a bit forced. The logic is that many Cuban Americans are becoming Democrats, which might create support for a change in policy, but then they also note that Democrats have failed to do anything. So far, economic interest groups haven’t acted in concert to pressure the government. The article also does not note that the Democratic candidates have very different views on Cuba so it also depends on who is elected.

One point I found amusing was the so-called “Grandmother Factor,” where young Cuban Americans don’t want to admit to their grandmothers that they either registered Democrat or lean toward toward the Democratic Party.