Vote in Bolivia

I had written about the possible demonstration effect of the Venezuelan referendum on Bolivia, but this is definitely not what I would’ve expected. Evo Morales called for referenda on whether or not he, the VP and the nine governors should remain in office, in response to the violent reaction to the Constitutional Assembly. The governors have apparently accepted.

If the negative vote for each exceeds the percentage vote they received in their last election (53.7% for Evo) then new elections would be called within 2-3 months. Miguel writes that the current law is more specific, in that if someone received a plurality in the election, then a simple majority in the referendum would be required for removal. However, Morales is sending a bill to the legislature on the referendum, so the details may differ.

I haven’t seen any timetable for when the vote will occur, and the government has already announced that the constitution will go forward as planned (a draft by December 14) even though the constitution is the proximate cause of this particular conflict (ideology, of course, is the distal cause). Therefore, the recall vote is ostensibly intended to help break the political stalemate but simultaneously the violence will likely get worse. The atmosphere of the vote will be much more volatile than in Venezuela.