Delay and repress

Roberto Micheletti is back to saying that he will not allow Zelaya to return to the presidency. The Honduran Congress will also not even discuss the amnesty issue until Monday.

Further:

Also marking a tougher stance, riot police in the Honduran capital used tear gas and night sticks to break up a pro-Zelaya blockade of a main artery leading into Tegucigalpa. Police said 25 people were injured and 88 arrested.

A Zelaya supporter was wounded in the head by a gunshot and was seriously hurt. Police spokesman Daniel Molina alleged the shot was fired by protesters.

"We will not allow any more disturbances," Micheletti said. "We are going to bring order to Honduras."

That won't mean anything good.

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More on the Honduran military

I keep repeating that the Honduran military's position is critical to any resolution to the current crisis. It seemed quite clear that they had shifted to support the Arias Accord. Head of the joint chiefs Romeo Vásquez now says there were never any negotiations with the United States (which had been reported). He says the statement released by the military should be viewed only as support for Micheletti, and that the institution has no opinion about what decisions that government makes.

When asked about human rights violations, he responds that the military follows orders. Apparently doing so means they are not responsible for anything.

Ustedes han sido acusados de violar los derechos humanos, ¿cómo responde usted a esas acusaciones?

Lo que hicimos fue cumplir las órdenes de un poder del Estado. Nosotros no hemos violado los derechos humanos, hemos dado cumplimiento a las leyes del país.

Quick translation: You've been accused of violating human rights, how do you respond to these accusations?

What we did was carry out orders from a State power. We have not violated human rights, we have carried out the laws of the country.

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Honduras and Latin America

I think Latin America should solve its own problems whenever possible. Indeed, you will find few Latin Americanists who think otherwise. That said, such efforts should be based on realistic assumptions. For that reason, Mark Weisbrot makes no sense. He believes the Arias talks should be rejected, and that an undefined Latin American alternative should take its place.

He does not mention that the OAS, led by a Chilean who has often been criticized by the U.S. government as too leftist, tried and failed first, before the Arias effort began.

But let's set that inconvenient fact aside, and ask: who would organize the Latin American response? Wiesbrot suggests UNASUR, which as he points out helped to defuse a serious Bolivian conflict. But UNASUR is a South American organization, which has nothing to do with Central America. Even if it tried, does anyone think that any South American leader has any leverage in Honduras? Even Hugo Chávez, the most interested South American president, has offered no practical solution.

The even more essential point that Weisbrot ignores is that you cannot just say "restore Zelaya" and have it happen. He wants Washington out. Fine. But the coup government will tell every Latin American delegation the same as it said to the OAS--butt out. Then what will happen?

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Honduras and the Supreme Court

Similar in tone to his Wall Street Journal editorial, Roberto Micheletti is saying Mel Zelaya could possibly come back, as long as the San José Accord was modified to make it palatable to other state institutions. It could well be just another way to drag things out. Tucked in the Reuters article was this:

The Honduran Supreme Court, which ordered the army to oust Zelaya on June 28, is due to rule this week on Arias' proposal that Zelaya be allowed back to serve out the rest of his time, which ends early next year.

Two problems with this. First, the Supreme Court did not order the army to oust Zelaya. They only ordered his detention, but neither his exile nor removal from office. Second, since the Supreme Court never ruled that Zelaya should be removed from office (if there is a Supreme Court document I have missed, let me know) then I am not sure what it needs to decide. Nowhere did they indicate that their order entailed his removal from office.

In other words, it should not be too hard to uninvoke things that were not invoked in the first place.

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Paul Cuadros' A Home on the Field

I read Paul Cuadros' A Home on the Field (2006). It is written by a reporter of Peruvian descent who received a grant to study Latino migration to the South. He went to Siler City, NC, where the poultry plants were attracting a growing migrant population, and started a soccer team at the local high school. Despite resistance, he not only got the program going, but became state champion within three years with a group of young, impassioned Latino kids, many of whom were undocumented.

As I began reading, I have to admit my first impression was that Cuadros was too self-congratulatory. But reading more, and thinking about what it means to relocate to small town America and really transform it culturally, I couldn't help but think some people deserve some self-congratulation. Not long after he arrived, so did David Duke, and Campos does a nice job of showing how Duke criticized the presence of Latinos and then went to eat chicken, the processing of which had been done by Latinos in the area.

The book is very positive, with a message of promise about how sports can bring a community together. He even uses the stages of grief as an example--you start with denial and end with acceptance. Small southern towns focus on high school sports, and despite language differences Siler City became proud of its champions. He emphasizes that it also provided structure for the kids: "There is a happiness that seldom appears when you get beyond a certain age, but it is in us all, sleeping, waiting for a true and honest moment to emerge. That's what sport does. It awakens that buried feeling of real joy" (p. 257). That is the connection he makes with a skeptical community.

But he pulls no punches about the negative cultural expectations: "This is where Latino parents can fail their kids...For many immigrant parents, when a kid reaches sixteen he is on his own, he is a man, able to make his own decisions about life. That worked in Mexico but it can have disastrous results here" (p. 126). Cuadros agonizes over the poor decisions he sees kids make, yet also notes how kids with promise cannot ever attend college. As high school students they are safe, but once they graduate they become "an animal to be rounded up and deported" (p. 241).

If you're interested in Latino immigration, especially to the South, then this book is worth your time.

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Honduras and Nicaragua

The Nicaraguan National Assembly is now entering the Honduran fray. The opposition is starting to talk about a resolution to expel Mel Zelaya from the country. Prior, they would put together a commission to go to the border and evaluate the situation. The Constitutional Liberal Party is leading the way--at this point it is not clear whether they could garner a majority in support. The Sandinistas only have a plurality so cannot block it alone, but Daniel Ortega has forged alliances in the past with members of the conservative Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance.

Regardless, it is not unreasonable to assert that Nicaraguans regardless of political affiliation may well start getting tired of Zelaya's extended presence, which is disrupting the border.

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Brian Bilbray sets us straight

From The Hill.com:

Brian Bilbray has made some important conclusions regarding Honduras. He met with members of the coup government and reports that a majority of them don't want Zelaya back as president. He also learned that the coup government does not like people using the word "coup."

Lastly, Hondurans should be "congratulated for what they have done" and that the State Department loves Hugo Chávez. A majority of Hondurans he talked to in the coup government agree.

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Slow ride

When Mel Zelaya proved that ultimately he was unwilling to cross into Honduras, my take was that the coup government would then be emboldened to stall.

Now, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral says it is not opposed in principle to moving up the elections, but there will be have to be a process of meeting with all groups who would affected and reaching a consensus with them. That will take a while.

And a special congressional commission will take its time to determine whether Zelaya could be granted an amnesty. Then it will write up a report. Then that report will have to be debated by the full Congress.

It is still hard to figure out the military's role, since it proclaimed itself committed to the San José Accords. Perhaps as long as the coup government says it is open to the proposal, then armed forces will remain in the background.

Update: even slower. Congress says it wants the Supreme Court to rule on the issue.

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Obama and Honduras

It has become almost a political game to determine who is influencing Barack Obama with regard to Honduras. It can be tough to keep track.

• He is being influenced by Clintonites to support Zelaya.

• He is being influenced by Clintonites to oppose Zelaya.

• He is being influenced by The Empire to oppose Zelaya.
  

• He is plotting with the UN to support Zelaya.

• He was duped by Bush administration officials while in Russia to oppose Zelaya.
  

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Coup fears in Latin America

For all the talk about Gallup polls in the Honduran case, I have not seen coverage of Gallup's region-wide poll about people's fear of military coups (the poll was published in June, but the responses are from 2008). Honduras had the second highest percentage of people (29%) who agreed that the country was moving toward a coup (behind Bolivia at 36%).

Those countries are not surprising. But 11% of Chileans? And 14% of Colombians? And then 11% in Costa Rica, where the military was abolished before most of its citizens were even born?

I find these numbers amazingly high.

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The military and cracks in Honduras' coup government

The Honduran military has issued an official statement supporting the San José Accord (text here). The NYT notes that it comes from negotiations between mid-level officers and U.S. congressional aides (this is the second reference I've seen to such "aides" but I have never seen them identified, even in a general way).

Of course, this solution includes Mel Zelaya's return as president, though as part of a unity government. Micheletti has said that is "impossible," but now must override the armed forces, which he will do at his own risk (as we know, the military already showed willingness to violate the constitution by exiling Zelaya). The delaying tactics were working well for Micheletti, but we already knew there was some level of disagreement within the coup government as the crisis dragged on.

Despite the fact that this news is some hours old, it is notable that the main opposition paper La Prensa has yet to mention it. This news will be hard to spin, and impossible to blame on Hugo Chávez.

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Zelaya on the border

This crisis just get curiouser and curiouser. Mel Zelaya has set up camp in Nicaragua just outside Honduras, talking to supporters with a megaphone. The government has put a curfew in place in the area, so he is relatively isolated there.

When there was a risk that Zelaya might push across the border, such a strategy might have been effective in putting pressure on Micheletti. Since he has shown he will not try, then the coup government can probably ignore and mock him until negotiations get going again, which will be Tuesday in Washington (see Carin Zissis at Americas Quarterly for a variety of useful links).

The last thing Zelaya needs is to be viewed with derision. He is running that risk now. At the same time, however, he is showing an independence that no one would have expected. The Obama administration wants him to stay away, while Hugo Chávez wants him to return. For now, Zelaya is doing neither.

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Zelaya's second semi-return to Honduras

It makes sense that a political crisis with so many unpredictable turns should have another, but I am still trying to figure this one out. Mel Zelaya came to the border, stepped over briefly for show, asked to talk to the military leadership, was told he could not come into the country, and then...left.

He has also said he will give negotiations another shot. According to the AP:

He stopped a few steps into Honduran territory, speaking to nearby military officials on his mobile phone.

''I've spoken to the colonel and he told me I could not cross the border,'' Zelaya said. ''I told him I could cross.''

But he soon went back to Nicaragua and said he was ready to return to the negotiating table.

''The best thing is to reach an understanding that respects the will of the people,'' Zelaya said.

Zelaya likely held out hope (or truly believed) that the police and/or army would back down when he arrived. Obviously that did not happen, though fortunately the entire episode appeared to be civil.

This gives the coup government a bargaining advantage. Zelaya has now twice threatened to enter the country without doing so, while also giving various ultimatums. He will be taken much less seriously in that regard now, which greatly reduces the urgency of negotiations that were already going nowhere in particular. Micheletti will now likely make them drag out even longer. Zelaya was even mocked:

Interim Deputy Security Minister Mario Perdomo told The Associated Press that authorities didn't bother to arrest Zeyala because he barely entered Honduras.

''Zelaya made a show of entering Honduras, he put one foot in, and left,'' Perdomo said. ''And he did this in a dead zone of the frontier, which we tolerated.''

I am not sure where Zelaya goes from here.

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Honduras: further update

I will not be live blogging or providing constant updates, but Mel Zelaya has now reached the Honduran border, but has not crossed it. Initial reports indicate security forces (CNN says it is "police and soldiers") firing on some of his supporters and also using tear gas.

Update: Immediately going back on what I just said, Zelaya is just waiting at the border, saying he is waiting to be allowed to enter peacefully, rather than demanding entry or attempting to enter by force. He has been very good at maintaining the high ground since his overthrow.

How long can Micheletti simply ignore his presence?

Update again: Despite what he said, Zelaya entered, and no one stopped him. Then he stepped back real quick to avoid arrest.

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Honduras: An update of sorts

So Mel Zelaya was in a 50 car caravan on his way toward Honduras, accompanied by Venezuelan Foreign Minister Nicolás Maduro. Or maybe it is 20 trucks. Either way, he's driving a white Jeep Wrangler and will be showing up soon.

The Honduran defense minister says Hugo Chávez wants Zelaya dead, I suppose because he felt the need to mention Chávez and couldn't come up with something better. Defense Minister Sevilla also reaffirms there is a warrant for Zelaya's arrest. However, the government is going to make sure it piles lots of dirt at the border to make sure the court's orders are never enforced. The police might be on strike, or they might not.

Meanwhile, José Miguel Insulza is scratching his head, trying to figure out why no one wants to negotiate anymore, and the coup government isn't even willing to negotiate with itself.

And there we are.

Update: CNN en Español asked the director of National Police if Zelaya would be arrested if he entered the country. He refused to answer, saying "the National Police has a plan, and it will be carried out." Thanks for clearing that up...

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Awaiting Zelaya's return

It will be miraculous if Mel Zelaya re-enters Honduras without violence erupting in some manner. He has been making a public point of emphasizing calm, saying that he will be waving a white flag when he arrives.

The Honduran Defense Ministry released a troubling statement in response:

“No podemos responsabilizarnos por la seguridad de personas que, por fomentar la violencia generalizada en el país, están sujetos a ser atacados, inclusive por sus mismos partidarios, con el exclusivo propósito de constituirlos en mártires”

"We cannot be held responsible for people who, in order to foment generalized violence in the country, are subject to attack, including by their own supporters, with the exclusive purpose of making them into martyrs."

This is one of the oldest excuses for violence in the book, though I think more commonly made after the fact. If anybody dies, it is not the military's fault because leftists just kill each other in order to make us look bad. And even if we did kill a few, they were here to foment violence so we had no choice.

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Failed talks in Honduras

Unless there is a last minute change, the Costa Rica talks appear to be dead. There are cracks within the coup government, but as of now are not strong enough to force a change of position. See RAJ's take on the failed talks.

Oscar Arias says it is now the job of the OAS to settle the dispute, which is bizarre since a) the OAS has already failed in that regard; and b) the coup government has not backed down from its insistence that Zelaya not return as president. If the latter does not change, it does not matter who is mediating.

Rumors are flying about when Zelaya will try to return. He says "Only God will stop me," which seems not to take into account the Honduran military.

For now, we wait. And hope this doesn't become violent.

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Carlos Fuentes' The Eagle's Throne

I read Carlos Fuentes' The Eagle's Throne, which is a beautifully written and ultimately very sad novel. To enjoy it, you must suspend disbelief. The premise is that it is 2020 and a dispute with the U.S. (President Condoleezza Rice, no less) has left Mexicans unable to use the internet or telephones. Therefore they write each other letters. Not just any sort of letter, but incredibly crafted as if they were written by Carlos Fuentes. Get past that and you're ready.

The eagle's throne refers to the Mexican presidency, which is the focus of everyone in the book as they scheme for the 2024 election. The book has no main character, but rather each chapter is a different letter. Initially, keeping track of the characters is a challenge, but once I got going I could only admire the way in which Fuentes generated plot through the letters and gradually introduced surprising twists and turns.

The fight for the presidency is vicious, including blackmail, kidnapping, and murder. To put it mildly, it is not an optimistic view of Mexico's meandering process of democratization after the PRI's defeat in 2000. Few people trust each other, and with good reason. As one character says to another, "Keep your hands clean and your spine straight, but above all watch it, my love, keep your eyes open, and be prepared to be a bit of a bastard..." (p. 45).

I found the ending very sad, and the last chapter wrenching. Ultimately, it's all about the extremes people will go to in order to get access to the throne.

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The cracks in Honduras

Very interesting story from the New York Times. Micheletti has rejected a new proposal, but this time from his own negotiating team. Indeed, his own foreign minister (and looking like the proposal from former president Flores). It was leaked by U.S. congressional aides, as a way to put more pressure on Micheletti, whose side now says they are putting together something new and so are not going to attend the meetings today as planned.

The next step is to see whether the coup government will simply start negotiating unsuccessfully with itself, then start blaming a global conspiracy when they can't come to agreement.

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Programming note: spam

I got hit very hard by spammers overnight, with about 300 comments placed in a large number of posts. I will delete them as I can but it is time consuming so try and ignore them.

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