Monday, July 20, 2009

Sorting out the failing negotiations in Honduras

I had been saying that it seemed Zelaya would wait until the Oscar Arias talks were officially dead before acting. Now it seems we are very close to that time, since the coup government rejected the latest proposal, saying it constituted "open interference in the internal affairs of Hondruras," and Zelaya says resistance is being organized. Arias is asking for 72 hours more.

RAJ notes potential cracks in the coup supporters, with Liberal ex-president Carlos Flores apparently sending a fax to Arias with suggestions for negotiation. Importantly, it includes Zelaya staying for the rest of his term. How many prominent coup supporters are not happy with the negotiations?

So we have two possibilities. Either Zelaya returns by some means and all hell breaks loose, or the current Micheletti negotiating team is pulled out and a less intransigent one is put in immediately (or the current team is given very different marching orders).


Anonymous,  8:52 AM  

Looks like this mess could spread. Zelaya's buddy, Ortega, fresh from stealing last year's municipal elections in Nicaragua, is now proposing asking 'the people' if he should have the chance of being reelected. What's the expression, birds of a feather?

Anonymous,  11:32 AM  

I think that if there is a break in the facade of unity in Tegucigalpa it will come from the military leaders. Given the nature of military organizations, it is a grave worry of the leaders to see their organization fracture. To politicians it is second nature.

Greg Weeks 11:38 AM  

Could well be, but politician cracks may result from military cracks.

boz 11:47 AM  

Could well be, but politician cracks may result from military cracks.

I'd actually say the opposite is likely. The politicians may crack, forcing the military to choose a side to back.

Greg Weeks 12:02 PM  

Causal arrows could potentially go both ways, even simultaneously.

Anonymous,  12:42 PM  

Yes, I agree with both of you but the military cracks may matter more. Perhaps more than any other single strength of the coup side is the seeming unity of the military. The congress, political parties, media, courts and other institutions fracturing will not have the same impact on events as a potential breakdown in military discipline.

Slave Revolt,  1:12 PM  

It is important to understand the stakes of what is happening right now: the coup is really a reaction and fear on the part of the Honduran upper classes against authentic democracy. Their main supporter, The US empire, almost always works against authentic popular movements--and they have murdered millions to forword what is without question antidemocratic, ecocidal adgenda across the world.

What you folks that denigrate the progressive leaders in the Americas really fear is losing you illegitimate priviledges, the lucre that you are given a cut of as part and parcel to the rape of our ecological systems and the oppression of your fellow human beings.

Why else the pathological distortions we see in the capitalist media?

As usual, events on the ground, lead by people in solidarity, will me the determing factor in this drama.

The death squads and the silly lies you internalize cannot stop the hurricane, lavalas--the cleansing flood that exposes a deeply human truth: democacy and human transcendence of illegitimate fetters is the story behind the story, the story that gives meaning to our existance.

leftside 5:33 PM  

So we now know that mule Micheletti had links to drug traffickers (the Cali Cartel) AND had proposed re-election before. If I were a psychologist, I'd say he's he's projecting himself onto Zelaya. You couldn't write this one any better...

Anonymous,  6:44 PM  

The military so far has shown its unwillingness to follow Zelaya's illegal orders, a very good thing.

Anonymous,  8:46 PM  

This source is both reliable and helpful. According to the logic the article uses, leftside, we might ask why did Fidel Castro marry Mirta Diaz Balart, the daughter of the Majority leader of the Cuban House of Representatives, Bataista's Minister of the Interior and father of you know what family of US congressmen? In 1948, the year of the Bogata uprising, Fidel was more interested in pursuing power than ideology. If I were a psychologist, I would say he was projecting himself onto his father-in-law's patron, the president golpista.

Good work, comrade.

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