Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Support for Zelaya in Honduras

More info from the Gallup poll:

The nationwide survey — which was done after Zelaya was sent into forced exile in a military coup — shows Zelaya with 46 percent favorable and 44 unfavorable, compared to 30 favorable and 49 unfavorable for Micheletti.
So even after the coup, Zelaya is much more popular than Micheletti. Indeed, it is entirely likely that this is because of the coup. Zelaya's treatment garners him sympathy.

The survey also asked Hondurans whether they felt Zelaya's removal was justified because he had pushed to add a question on a national ballot about whether to have a constitutional assembly, which the nation's highest court had ruled to be unconstitutional. Forty-one percent of respondents said this did justify his removal, while 28 percent said it didn't and 31 percent were unsure or declined to answer.

The coup government really has no majority support for anything it has done.

21 comments:

Doug 6:27 PM  

Is Gallup ever going to simply put this out publicly?

Clint 6:28 PM  

I guess this throws a kink in the popularly-parroted narrative that the deposition of Zelaya was somehow done for the "protection of democracy." Aside from the fact legal mechanisms were bypassed, the public doesn't even support it anymore!

Thanks for posting. Just visiting the blog for the first time, and it seems to be one of the better resources on the Honduran coup.

Gabriel 7:15 PM  

Technically they do have a majority. It's in Congress and the Supreme Court. And the support of the Attorney General.

leftside 7:50 PM  

Indeed, it is entirely likely that this is because of the coup. Zelaya's treatment garners him sympathy.

I would not doubt that may be true in some cases, but the article points out that 4 months ago the favorable-unfavorable difference was 4% to Zelaya's upside. Now it is 2% (46% to 44%). I would think there is tremendous pressure in society now to condemn Zelaya from bosses and elites in society. This is working against any synpathy he's getting. I think the huge confusion on the coup is what is really amazing about this poll - 31% saying they don't know whether his removal was jusified. This is why the media is being censored and the pro-coup propoganda is incessant.

Justin Delacour 9:04 PM  

Technically they do have a majority.

Not a majority of the Honduran people, Gabriel. And in a democracy, that happens to be important.

Gabriel 9:36 PM  

In a representative democracy it's the institutions that matter.

Justin Delacour 9:43 PM  

In a representative democracy it's the institutions that matter.

Yes, that matters, but it also matters what the people think because the people elect the representatives and they can also make a lot of havoc on the streets and in their workplaces.

The fact that Micheletti has such a poor approval rating should be of concern to you.

Gabriel 9:46 PM  

I think the new government got rid of the curfew, no? Things seem to be calming down.

Slave Revolt,  10:02 PM  

Tabs, "calming down"--that's a bit of wishful thinking, and it reminds me of Third Reich toadies comforting themselves before the reckoning.

I only wish that you would be in Honduras for the nomen of liberation. This event has been a valuable teaching moment for the people of Honduras, word.

You are living in the times of slave revolt. Check your weapons, stoke the fire, ride!

Abby Kelleyite 10:07 PM  

Micheletti sees the writing on the wall at least for himself: BBC says
Honduran leader 'could step down'

leftside 11:00 PM  

The usurpers plan (crafted by Clinton's buddies) appears to be to throw out a bunch of crap "offers" so they appear to be the practical one's "dialoging" in earnest. Their only hope is to paint Zelaya as a nut like Ahmadinejad (crossed with Noriega) and convince the US that keeping him away is for the sake of peace and tranquility. This is a massive criminal conspiracy to rob the people from their vote that has united the world against it. I'm pretty sure if this was Peru and the General was a fan of Hugo Chavez, the US and others would find a way to make it intolerable. They would not "negotiate" with his representative and they would not be amused by an idea to substitute one golpista with another.

leftside 1:44 AM  

I think the new government got rid of the curfew, no? Things seem to be calming down.

Nope. Curfew is back. Plus there were thousands in the street today and it got pretty ugly:

Labor leader Israel Salinas, one of the main figures in the pro-Zelaya movement, told thousands of demonstrators who marched through the capital that workers at state-owned companies plan walkouts later this week.

He said protest organizers were talking with union leaders at private companies to see if they could mount a general strike against Micheletti. Salinas also said sympathetic unions in neighboring Nicaragua and El Salvador would try to block border crossings later this week "in solidarity with our struggle."

At the five-hour protest, tempers were high. Demonstrators threw rocks at a government building that houses the country's womens institute. Police showed up but no injuries were reported.


And I swear, I did not read this Micheletti statement before I made my comments above. Maybe I am in the wrong business :)

Mr Micheletti told reporters he would be prepared to make the move for "peace and tranquility" in Honduras.

HonduCanadian 8:45 AM  

Your report of the Gallup poll is incorrect. The results were 46% happy Zelaya is gone, 28% against the coup, the rest did not answer.

Justin Delacour 1:41 PM  

Your report of the Gallup poll is incorrect. The results were 46% happy Zelaya is gone, 28% against the coup, the rest did not answer.

No, the actual results were that 46% opposed Zelaya's ouster and 41% supported it. You might want to consider reading CID-Gallup's actual report rather than relying on La Prensa.

Miguel Madeira 2:46 PM  

"You might want to consider reading CID-Gallup's actual report rather than relying on La Prensa."

Btw, where is these report?

It was published somewhere?

Justin Delacour 4:36 PM  

The article that Greg links to above gives a comprehensive breakdown of CID-Gallup's results. La Prensa, on the other hand, chose to misrepresent the results by selectively focusing on people's responses to only one obscure question about whether the non-binding referendum justified the coup.

In reality, the data is very clear that a plurality of respondents oppose the coup.

HonduCanadian 5:58 PM  

Due to the difference of reporting of the poll - from both sides - I did a little research and found a blog that has obtained the questions and the raw data. To be fair I'm providing you a quote and the link to the blog itself:

"...now having the full data: If this poll is accurate, there are (or were last week) 40% of Hondurans strongly in favor of the removal of Zelaya, 30% of Hondurans who strongly support Zelaya and 30% who have a nuanced view, disliking Zelaya but also disagreeing with or not comfortable with the coup and the Micheletti government."

For an update of the poll see:

http://www.bloggingsbyboz.com/2009/07/poll-numbers-divided-in-honduras.html

Greg Weeks 6:01 PM  

Boz has been here numerous times--go back to my original post and see his comments about it.

el callao 10:24 PM  

How are these polls conducted? If they are phone polls they have little validity since they'd be biased towards the middle and upper classes. If they're mainly conducted in urban areas, they'd still be biased against the majority of Hondurans who live in remote rural areas. A non-biased poll of the Honduran population would have to send pollsters out to rough it in small mountain hamlets.

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