Zelaya on the border
This crisis just get curiouser and curiouser. Mel Zelaya has set up camp in Nicaragua just outside Honduras, talking to supporters with a megaphone. The government has put a curfew in place in the area, so he is relatively isolated there.
When there was a risk that Zelaya might push across the border, such a strategy might have been effective in putting pressure on Micheletti. Since he has shown he will not try, then the coup government can probably ignore and mock him until negotiations get going again, which will be Tuesday in Washington (see Carin Zissis at Americas Quarterly for a variety of useful links).
The last thing Zelaya needs is to be viewed with derision. He is running that risk now. At the same time, however, he is showing an independence that no one would have expected. The Obama administration wants him to stay away, while Hugo Chávez wants him to return. For now, Zelaya is doing neither.
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Civility -- yes, that's the important thing here. I certainly hope the soldiers who prevented Zelaya's wife and daughter from going beyond El Paraiso to meet the president were being civil as they effectively held them hostage.
Zelaya is waiting on the border, hoping that at least ten thousand supporters are able to gather between the military and the border. This appears a very high hurdle for a popular movement that has been worn down by the the U.S. government's and the coup-makers' strategy of delay, in the face of a defiant and determined Honduran military.
And what gives the military that confidence?
The Secretary of State has not said a word in criticism of the coup regime's repressive acts: close to a thousand Hondurans arbitrarily detained, hundreds of non-political Nicaraguan immigrant workers deported, media suppression, even assassinations.
No freezing of the coup-makers' accounts. No visa denials. No cutoff of economic aid.
International and local human rights organizations have documented and reported on the coup government's crimes, to media silence. CNN and other media show up to the press conferences in DC by coup-opposing members of the Honduran Congress, and write nothing.
The longer this goes on, the more of a threat the Honduran coup is to democratic governments everywhere. Put yourself in the place of the majority of Hondurans who oppose the military coup, who see Billy Joya on the television and understand that without a superhuman effort on the part of the population or help from outside the country, the nightmares of the 1980s will have returned.
What should the U.S. government do? Something a damned sight more pro-democracy than folded-hands calls for more negotiations.
The Secretary of State has not said a word in criticism of the coup regime's repressive acts: close to a thousand Hondurans arbitrarily detained, hundreds of non-political Nicaraguan immigrant workers deported, media suppression, even assassinations.
But it's even worse than that. Hillary is giving aid and comfort to the coup leaders by denouncing Zelaya's latest moves as "reckless." Hillary is sending out all the wrong signals. It would be better if she would just shut up.
I guess Zelaya's plan of making sure people consider him a martyr is working. The accusations against the US also seem to be working.
1) There's no ten thousand supporters who are willing to put their lives at risk for this man. He cannot pay them enough.
2) If you believe the US is supporting the new government then you must not read the news or not be aware the economic sanctions they are facing.
3) The military get their confidence from knowing the majority of the people do not want Mel back.
4) Democracy was preserved by removing Zelaya.
2) If you believe the US is supporting the new government then you must not read the news or not be aware the economic sanctions they are facing.
What the Administration seems to want is a chastened, lame-duck Zelaya to be peacefully restored to power and then to serve out his term. What the U.S. Administration doesn't want is (1) to be blamed for violence in Honduras or (2) to see a popular movement restore Zelaya to power outside of the framework that they've established. In other words, they don't want Zelaya to become a populist hero of the poor (a la Chavez or Peron).
3) The military get their confidence from knowing the majority of the people do not want Mel back.
Hmmm. According to CID-Gallup, Zelaya's popular approval rating is 16 points higher than that of Micheletti.
The real reason the coup leaders don't want Zelaya back is that they know he would emerge a political powerhouse for years to come if he were to take back power now.
1) There's no ten thousand supporters who are willing to put their lives at risk for this man. He cannot pay them enough.
Are you joking? The only reason there are not 100,000 Hondurans at the border ready to welcome him is because the military/police have laid siege to the entire area, not letting a soul pass - not even his family. The few hundred there now had to trek through the mountains to get there.
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