Thursday, July 16, 2009

Is Zelaya trying to return?

So says one of his top aides.

Patricia Rodas, foreign minister of Zelaya's toppled government, said the deposed president was "on his way" back, but refused to say how he planned to enter the country or when he expected to arrive. Zelaya's current whereabouts are unclear and Honduras' interim leaders have promised to arrest him if he returns.

"Our president will be in Honduras at some point and a some moment. He is already on his way. God protect him and the people of the Americas who are with him," Rodas told reporters in La Paz, Bolivia.

I suppose he figures he has Micheletti on the ropes after the latter said he would be willing to step down and protests mount. I assume he is also tired of the calls for "patience" with negotiations.

Forget the United States. If he really appears in Honduras, this will be about how the Honduran military responds. And no matter what you read, that will not be based on what the U.S. wants.


leftside 6:25 PM  

And the head of the Supreme Courts admits that there was no order to remove Zelaya from office, let alone remove him from the country. There was an arrest warrant for him to stand before a special tribunal.

boz 8:54 PM  

Zelaya's aide is saying he's entering the country to set up in a location for a "final battle" against the coup.

Justin Delacour 9:03 PM  

If he really appears in Honduras, this will be about how the Honduran military responds. And no matter what you read, that will not be based on what the U.S. wants.

Well, that's a bit of an overstatement. I suspect you agree, Greg, that most Honduran actors will take into consideration how their actions will be perceived by the international community. Indeed, external factors are not a determinant, but they are a constraint on behavior.

el callao 11:04 PM  

Zelaya is keeping the golpistas guessing as to what and when his next move will be. First, he gives them an ultimatum until next weekend making them think they have until then. Then, Rodas says he's on his way to Honduras. Rumors start flying around that he's already in the country about to set up a base from which to launch a "final battle." His supporters are energized feeling something important is about to happen. The golpistas reinstate the curfew and increase repression. They fly fighter planes and storm his house in Olancho, making for a pretty good show that not everything is "normal" in Honduras, making them appear nervous and on the defensive. Meanwhile Zelaya is waiting for the right moment to strike.

Justin Delacour 12:20 AM  

Good. Zelaya wouldn't be worth his salt if he weren't willing to put his ass on the line. The time for appeasing golpistas is over.

Anonymous,  2:11 AM  

The key moment will likely be when the Honduran military quietly tells Micheletti time is up and a new figurehead accepts some as yet to emerge Arias proposal. Amnesty and a restricted Zelaya returns. Civil disobedience puts the military in an untenable position. So far, it has seemed like there are few cracks in the high command. If there is the prospect of violence, plus business suffering from road closures, plus US aid being restricted, and a face-saving proposal on the table from Arias, that just might be the recipe.

HonduCanadian 11:04 AM  

It is very easy to analyze the possible bloodbath in Honduras, when you are safely tucked away at home; quite different when your compatriots’ lives are at stake. My fear is the loss of lives of many peasants and poor people will lose their lives, due to Zelaya's stubbornness and at the end, no real social change will result. I wish the popular sector would understand this and take advantage of this juncture, right now they have the upper hand. They can negotiate with the present government a good deal for the masses, even the establishment of a Constitutional Assembly, without touching the famous articles. Forget about Zelaya, he never did anything for them anyways. If you don't agree read what a popular group states in the following link:

el callao 8:53 PM  

Well, read the latest entry from that blog to see what they think about Zelaya and the golpistas now:

HonduCanadian 2:46 PM  

I'm not saying that they are not supporting Zelaya. What I'm saying is that their support is going to end up in a loss of life of the poor and that is unnecessary. That once in power Zelaya is going to forget about them and the bloodbath will be for nothing. That I WISH they would try to negotiate with the other band, because in there, they have the upper hand. Capish?

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