Friday, January 30, 2009

Where does Uribe go from here?

So it seems Colombian President Alvaro Uribe will not seek a third consecutive term, instead likely waiting one out so he can run again for a nonconsecutive term in 2014 (for details/links, you can check out Adam Isacson, Boz and Steven Taylor).

This ties in nicely with my recent post about what Latin American presidents do after they leave office. In the case of Uribe, it is reasonable to expect that his goal is to get an Uribista elected and pull strings from the background while waiting for the next election--how well that works would depend a lot on who the successor is. If that candidate somehow lost the election, then Uribe would be the natural opposition leader, even if he weren't in an elected position.

But might he seek a congressional or gubernatorial office in order to ensure a continued political presence while keeping the presidency in mind, a la Eduardo Frei in Chile (where the nonconsecutive dynamic is also in place)? It doesn't seem his style, but who knows.

Individuals who become president of a country seek power, for whatever reason. What, then, shapes their choices about power once they are no longer in the office? Under what circumstances and in what manner can they continue to wield it in some way?


Vicente Duque 1:15 PM  

Mr Weeks

Thanks for interesting topics.

Colombia is a Small Economy but very big in American Foreign Policy. And not so small as a buyer of American Products. Specially Agriculture.Colombia is one of the Topmost buyers of those products.

The Future Foreign Trade direction of the USA

Prophecy : Obama may change course and direction on foreign Trade -

Judd Gregg for Secretary of Commerce ??

Wow ! ... Wow ! ... Wow ! ... Wow ! ... Wow ! ...

That is the RUMOR !

A Very Big Friend of Latin America and Latinos !

Let us assume that this Rumor is False

But the Rumor has a lot of meaning and significance. The rumor is important, ther rumor has a point and implication. Rumors are not born in a void but have a context.

I would add this maxim of Ancient Times Before Christ :

"You obtain power pandering to the Poor, but you exert power with the Rich."

"Get power with the left, Rule with the Right"

This is from Ancient Greece.

Vicente Duque

Steven Taylor 12:35 PM  

The thing is, he will still need to get an amendment to the constitution to run again in 2014. Once he is out of office the political pressure to change the constitution will evaporate. Indeed, the floodgates are likely to open up with ambitious politicians who want the presidency and I think that Uribe will start to fade. His failure to create a political party to use as a long-term political base damages his prospects for being the puppetmaster behind the scenes.

I suppose he could try to assert himself within la U, or Democratic Colombia (which claims him as a founder, but that is an exaggeration, to be kind). It will be interesting to watch.

Greg Weeks 2:20 PM  

True enough. Hard to keep that mojo working while out of office.

Vicente Duque 7:03 PM  

Judd Gregg is keeping his favoritism for Commerce Secretary.

A very strong Republican

An Enthusiastic Free Trader.

He has criticized Nancy Pelosi for Paralyzing the Trade Agreement with Colombia.

Democrats could win New Hampshire in 2010 without Gregg ( his Senatorial seat )

Obama seems to abandon the Electoral Protectionist Speech to satisfy Unions, Workers, etc...

Colombia could be one of the first to be annointed as Trade Partner.

I have been gathering Information about Judd Gregg and ( anxiously ) waiting for the official anouncement.

Vicente Duque

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