Monday, June 06, 2011

Peru election aftermath

Given all the uncertainty, I was surprised when the presidential race in Peru was called rather quickly and overnight has changed very little.

The current results, with 88.4% counted, is Ollanta Humala with 51.28% and Keiko Fujimori with 48.72%.

Initial thoughts:

--The number of spoiled or blank ballots is 5.8%, which is lower than predicted.  When push came to shove, Peruvians did want to choose.

--There are plenty of news stories about jittery market but interestingly, JP Morgan says "buy Peruvian."

--There are no accusations of fraud and Keiko is telling her supporters to remain calm, so could this election turn out to be...normal?


Vicente Duque 12:50 PM  

Mr Weeks

I have an intuition that this new Elected President Ollanta Humala is not going to be a second Hugo Chavez and not even a second Rafael Correa, much less a Daniel Ortega.

Perhaps this man is a second Luis Ignacio "Lula" da Silva that has been so positive for Brazil. Follow the Lula and you will reach a good place. Lula was also accused of being a dangerous communist.

Peru is not Venezuela, a Sea of Oil and easy Billions of Dollars. Ollanta has not an unlimited checkbook or book account.

Peru depends on exports of many articles, products, etc .... It is not "cursed" by oil. Those exports require careful management by Government officials. A Clown will ruin the exports in a second and lose support from the Businessmen.

The Entrepreneur Class and Businessmen of Peru seem more Dynamic, Successful and Advanced than those of Venezuela. Therefore they are stronger to oppose a Leftist President.

It is impossible to establish a Santa Claus Economy in Peru, like in Venezuela, an Economy of Subsidies and Total Clientelism requires a state that gathers billions of dollars from a single export.

I am told that even Nobel Prize Winner Mario Vargas Llosa and a good share of the flower of intellectuals in Peru supported Ollanta - A good sign !

And I am told that he is surrounded by experienced economists and public men that have nothing to do with communism, but that know a lot of banking, public finances, etc ...

Let's hope for the best ! ... I see no big cause for worry.

Last but not least : Brazil, Chile and Colombia are good company for Peru in South America. ( in Rational Moderate Political Orientation ).

Vicente Duque

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