Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Migrant leaving or not

This headline from Fox News Latino caught my attention: "Growing Number of Migrants are Leaving US for Latin America." This didn't make much sense to me. There has been abundant evidence that migrants are not leaving in large numbers, and we just learned that remittances to Latin America are up, which means people are staying abroad.

So what is the evidence that they're leaving?

When the United States economy tanked after the real estate bubble burst, undocumented immigrants returned in droves to Latin America, especially those who worked in the construction sector, according to a study from the Economic Policy Institute. Since then, the return rate has decreased but is still higher than usual, advocates say, citing anecdotal evidence.

Ouch. News stories should never be based on advocates citing anecdotal evidence. Circular migration is eternal, which means you will always find people who are leaving, but that is not equivalent--at least yet--to a trend of more people deciding to leave and never return.

In other words, this could be a trend, but the article fall far short of providing evidence for it. It would, in fact, be a welcome one since it would indicate confidence in Latin American economies. But I am not yet convinced.


Alfredo 10:50 PM  

The following link is about the same topic.


csccat 7:37 AM  

If it makes Fox news followers happy to think that latinos are leaving "the real America" alone, fne. Fox lives in a imagined world anyway.

Vicente Duque 12:39 PM  

Gawker.com : The State of Sheriff Joe Arpaio, Russell Pearce and Jan Brewer is a swing state in 2012. Thanks to SB 1070 - Arizona has limits with Nevada and New Mexico, and touches a corner of Colorado, all of them quintessential swing states.

And that is not all : add a border with Liberal Democratic California :

Has the Arizona Immigration Bill Created A New Swing State?
By Evan McMorris-Santoro
November 16, 2011


Some excerpts :

The rumors are true, Rep. Chad Campbell, the Democratic leader of the Arizona state House, told TPM Wednesday: the state best known for Sheriff Joe Arpaio and the toughest immigration law in the land really is a swing state in 2012. And Democrats have SB 1070 to thank for it.

"I'd hesitate to say it was ever good that it was passed," Campbell said in a sitdown interview. "Because of the damage it did to the community, damage to the economy. But I do think it motivated a lot of people, especially people in the Latino community, to get involved and it energized them."

"If that's the final outcome of it, so be it," he added. "That's a good thing, obviously."

Campbell's not the only one saying that. The Obama campaign has said Arizona can be a target next year, thanks largely to a fired up Latino base. It wasn't supposed to be that way - Republicans in Arizona and nationally were eager for a fight with the White House over 1070, which has involved the Justice Department sweeping into Arizona to stop the law. That's the exact sort of thing the tea party types and conservatives who helped push 1070 through hate the most, and there was a belief that by taking immigration into their own hands in the states, Republicans could show Obama as ineffective on the issue and take states like Arizona off the map.

That scheme appears to be heading down the road to failure, Campbell said. The architect of 1070, state Sen. Russell Pearce (R-AZ), became the first-ever Arizona legislator to be recalled earlier this month, and now Campbell says there's a moderate and Latino voter base in Arizona that's reemerged after 1070.

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